With the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage this morning at 6.29%, activity in the housing market is brisk. Many in the industry, along with buyers, are anticipating the Federal Reserve making a move to lower the overnight rate in the Open Market Committee meeting next week. Whether the Fed comes through with a rate decrease remains to be seen, but markets have already priced the potential move in, which is reflected in today's mortgage rates. If the Fed doesn't come through with the expected decrease, I don't anticipate a big move up in rates, but that is a possibility. Conversely, a decrease will not likely bring rates down appreciably from today's level.
This morning in Deschutes County, there are 1,391 actively listed single-family homes, a decrease of 37 from last week. Activity has been brisk, and outpacing this time last year by nearly 20%. Eighty-eight pending sales represent an increase of eight from last week, primarily due to decreasing mortgage interest rates. The mortgage-rate/price dynamic is a balancing act that stabilizes relatively quickly. The excess inventory seen this year was a result of higher rates. As rates decrease, buyer demand increases, excess inventory declines, and prices rise. The average list price of the pending sales this week was $906,170, with sixty-nine closed transactions averaging $894,304.
Crook County inventory this week defied seasonal trends and increased by eight, now at 243 single-family listings. Ten pending sales at an average of $682,080 is on the high side for the past several weeks. Seven closed transactions averaged $1,069,142, with sales in Powell Butte and Brasada Ranch pulling up the average sale price. Seven of the ten pending sales were in Prineville, with the balance in Post, Oregon, Brasada Ranch, and Powell Butte.
The Jefferson County inventory is unchanged at 133 single-family listings. There were five pending sales at an average of $354,150, and no closed transactions this week. The data for the county shows that new listings are keeping inventory stable heading into fall. Like all of Central Oregon, Jefferson County offers many great opportunities in light of current market conditions.
Mortgage rate decreases will bring buyers out of the woodwork, but the overall market takes some time to adjust. With fall and the winter holiday season looming, I do not expect the dynamic of today's market to change much through year-end. The stable conditions today have improved conditions for buyers as the components of increased inventory, lower rates, and motivated sellers are all benefits. Sellers are maintaining prices established during the market peak of 2022, but might not be able to add significantly to those levels. Of course, every property is unique, and how a particular home competes with the active inventory, as well as its overall desirability, are significant factors that don't show in the market trends. Please don't hesitate to reach out if you need help evaluating a property in Central Oregon.
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