The consensus is that the Federal Reserve will decrease the overnight rate by 25 basis points today. While I remain skeptical that it will happen, and candidly do not believe it is the right move, my opinion is irrelevant. However, if rates decline, I do not expect mortgage rates to fall below this morning's national average 30-year fixed-rate conventional rate of 6.15%. The markets typically adjust in anticipation of rates coming down, and pre-price rates accordingly. By this time next week, we will know what today's Fed meeting brings to the market.
With mortgage rates decreasing, buyers have been active, and as a result, more sellers are coming to market at a time when inventory is typically in decline. Single-family homes for sale in Deschutes County increased this week by four, now at 1,395. This level is 143 more than this week last year. Four listings isn't an earth-shattering number, but it bucks the trends of the past several years. Sixty pending sales this week are down from recent levels, while 88 closed transactions are an increase, reflecting the strong activity of late summer.
Active listings in Crook County decreased by one to 242 single-family homes. Ten pending sales are strong and consistent with the past several weeks. Nine closed transactions are the most since early July.
The Jefferson County inventory also increased this week to 137 single-family homes on the market. Six pending sales are in line with recent activity, with four closed transactions.
Decreasing mortgage rates and steady activity in the Central Oregon housing market, are drawing out sellers. Listing price decreases are prevalent, but the median sale price is still up from last year. That in no way means there aren't great deals available, but this is a long way from a market collapse in our region. A big part of the equation is competition from increased supply. How long inventory levels stay elevated will be an essential metric to follow over the next few months. Whether mortgage interest rates continue to fall will be another critical component heading into spring. In any event, it will take some time to absorb the excess inventory, so changes are unlikely to happen immediately. I will continue to track the data to uncover the early signs of new market trends.
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