I recently predicted that rates would increase another 25 basis points in today's Fed meeting. However, the tea leaves point towards a hold rather than an increase. While that is excellent news for the mortgage markets, which have been relatively stable lately, there are no indications of a pivot anytime soon. Powell and company have clarified that a November increase is still on the table. Still, judging by recent trends, that narrative may be as much to scare the markets from becoming overly jubilant as an actual increase. Although, I wouldn't get too excited about the recently favorable dip in the CPI as disinflation is most likely what is transitory. One thing seems clear: the Fed's commitment to keeping rates higher longer.
Last week, the peak inventory in Deschutes County occurred for the year; the exact week inventory peaked in 2022. This morning, there are 892 single-family homes listed, compared to 921 the previous year. Year-to-date sold homes in 2022 were 3,173 at a median of 695k and seven days on the market, compared to 2,380 at a median of 660k and twenty days on the market this year. The drop in sales is now 25% year-over-year, with the median sale price down 5%. However, the gaps are narrowing as the year progresses. I do not anticipate total sales volume will catch up with 2022, but the median sale price increased this week. Comparing this week with the same week in 2022 shows a 2.4% increase in the median sale price and a two-day drop in the median days on the market. Last week's median sale price was 745k, with eighteen days on the market.
Crook County also saw a drop in active listings, but it is higher than this week last year. The number of active listings in Jefferson County increased this week but is three less than this week last year. Both Crook and Jefferson County have single-digit pending and sold volume weekly, so the median numbers are not as reliable for evaluating the market. Year-to-date, Crook County sales are down 18.4%, with the median sale price down 6.1%. Jefferson County sales are down 42.2%, and the median sold price dropped 4.75%.
Many homes on the market today have been listed for several months, with the median days listed for the active inventory at sixty-one. Many sellers today have already reduced the asking price and are likely open to offers in an effort to close this year. Fall is always a great time to be a buyer from a seasonal standpoint, and this year is no different. For buyers that can qualify at today's rates, a seller credit towards a rate buydown will get you in the 6% range and, for some, into the high 5s. Using a 2-1 buydown, which would provide a two-point reduction in year one, a one-point decrease in year two, and then the quoted rate at the time of a rate lock in years three through thirty, makes purchasing today far more attractive. Seller credits towards a buydown are a frequently used tool in today's purchasing environment. If mortgage rates concern you, I strongly encourage a conversation with a local lender to see what is available in your situation.
More and more people are asking questions about vacant land purchases, and I know a few lenders that can help. Many undeveloped land options in Central Oregon will require a well and septic system, which I have extensive experience researching. In addition, there are many recreational lots, off-grid lots, and Exclusive Farm Use zoning that I have studied throughout Central Oregon. Don't hesitate to contact me if you are digging into these options so I can help you decide if any of these properties could work. Remember that in some cases, the community CC&Rs can add a more restrictive element to building or developing vacant land. It is imperative you know everything about a vacant lot before making an offer to prevent disappointment in the future. I research these properties regularly and am happy to be a resource.
There are several active weeks in the real estate market before the holidays, and winter weather slows activity further. This fall has been beautiful, and the cooler yet pleasant temperatures make researching property and touring homes a pleasure. It won't be long before snow makes evaluating lots and land more difficult. If you are waiting for spring to get serious about a purchase, I still recommend researching today to get familiar with your target areas. For some properties, snow can linger into May or beyond, so walking lots or touring areas today can help you make a quick decision if something you love comes up this spring.