My Weekly Central Oregon Real Estate Blog

The national average for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage this morning is 7.04%, down from 7.34% on this day last year. While many have hyped a rate pivot from the Federal Reserve as the trigger for lower rates in the mortgage markets, that has not been the case. And now that inflation is creeping back up, it remains to be seen how many more rate decreases the Fed will be comfortable making. The good news is stability and predictability in the markets, albeit at higher rates than many hoped for by now. 

Deschutes County:

Twenty fewer single-family homes are listed this week in Deschutes County than last, with today's inventory showing 1,042 listings. Once again, there were more closed transactions than pending at 60 and 49, respectively. This week's average pending sale price was $759,164, with the average closed price at $832,230. 

Year-to-date sales of single-family homes in Deschutes County are up eighty-four from last year at 3,010. The median sale price at this point in 2023 was -3.65% less than in 2022 ($660k) but this year is up +3.79% at $685k, the same median sale price at this point in 2022. Increased inventory has not been enough to improve sales volume significantly in the face of higher mortgage rates. All of this indicates flat growth heading into 2025. However, the impacts are not consistent across all price points.

Crook County:

The inventory of single-family homes in Crook County decreased by two, now at 176 listings. Eight closed transactions at an average price of $685,125, with four pending sales averaging $394,050, rounded out the week. 

Year-to-date sales of single-family homes in Crook County are up twenty-nine from last year at 355. The median sale price at this point in 2023 was -4.7% less than in 2022 ($467k), but this year is up +5.4% at $469k, only a two-thousand dollar increase since 2022. While inventory in the county is up slightly from the last two years, it isn't enough to significantly impact prices. As long as mortgage interest rates remain near 7%, I do not anticipate much movement in sales prices for Crook County. However, like the rest of Central Oregon, the impacts are inconsistent.

Jefferson County:

The number of single-family homes for sale in Jefferson County decreased eight this week to 107, compared to 88 this week in 2022 and 78 this week in 2023. Six pending sales, at an average of $343,975, and four closed transactions, at an average of $423,725, are consistent with recent weeks, even though there is a more considerable variation in weekly numbers because of the smaller data pool. 

Year-to-date sales of single-family homes in Jefferson County are 201, up eleven from 2023 but down considerably from 2022's 294. The median sale price in 2023, $387k, decreased by 3.25%, while the average price increased by +3.7%. The median sale price increase year-to-date for 2024 is +3.8%, or $402k. The median sale price in the county has been flat since 2022. 

The data from Central Oregon shows a softening of sales volume with flat prices over the last two years. Mortgage rates may be down slightly, but at roughly 7%, many buyers are priced out of the market or at least out of the type of properties they desire. I do not anticipate economic conditions changing the dynamic much for 2025, but I am always open to being surprised! The good news is stability makes planning more straightforward. In most cases, buyers have time to consider several options without rushing into a purchase or competing with several other buyers. The current conditions may make fix-and-flip prospects more difficult, but for anyone with a more extended timeframe for ownership, conditions are excellent, with increased selection and motivated sellers. If crunching numbers appeal to you, please reach out, and I will be happy to run a personalized report on any market segment that interests you. 

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Over the last few years, the Central Oregon housing market trends have been strong enough to create consistent market conditions across all three counties. Price increases slowed somewhat when mortgage interest rates increased, but inventory remained low enough to prevent a significant drop in home values. The last two years showed a slowing in sales volume, with available homes for sale increasing significantly this year. While the Fed lowered rates again last week by 25 basis points, mortgage rates this morning are at 7.02% for the national average of a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage. A slowing economy, higher interest rates, and more homes listed for sale have begun taking a toll on the previously steady market. Stability across the three Central Oregon counties has given way to local market dynamics, making the trends in each county unique. 

Single-family homes for sale in Deschutes County decreased slightly to 1,062 due mainly to reduced sale activity and new post-election listings. Fifty homes are pending, with fifty-one completed transactions, with the median price reductions of -6.1% and -6.45%, respectively. This week last year, pending and closed sales were forty-three and forty-seven. Last year, mortgage rates were 7.43%, so the slight reduction in rates may account for the slight increase in sales volume. The most noticeable change year over year is in the number of homes for sale, with 792 listings on this week last year. While market conditions may at this time be similar to last year, the faltering economy and increase in homes for sale are beginning to alter the landscape of our market.

Crook County gained listings this week, now at 178, up thirteen from last week. Three pending sales and five closed transactions are identical to this week last year. However, there were only 146 active listings this week last year. Two of the three pending sales in Crook County this week were over $1M, showing a slowing in the activity in lower-priced homes. 

Jefferson County's active listings are unchanged from last week at 115. Three pending sales and four closed transactions compare favorably to this week last year when there were only two pending sales and no closed transactions. There were only 78 active listings this week last year, showing a sharp rise in inventory this year. 

Despite the Federal Reserve's efforts to bring down interest rates, the mortgage market is moving in the opposite direction due to an increase in yields for the 10-year Treasury. Mortgage interest does not directly correlate with the Fed overnight rate, but typically, Fed rate decreases trickle down to the mortgage markets. Whether mortgage rates begin to fall in line with Fed decreases remains to be seen and will depend on how much bond investors demand higher yields. Government deficit spending will continue with the next administration, and monetizing that debt creates a demand for higher yields from bond investors. Interest rates may concern today's buyers, but more homes are available for sale, and motivated sellers are helping to balance that out. 

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The next significant news that could impact the housing market will be the Fed meeting and whether the overnight rate drops. Many predict another rate decrease, likely at no more than 25 basis points. However, while a decline in the overnight rate may impact credit card rates or car loans, it does not directly correlate to mortgage interest rates. Leading up to the aggressive 50 basis points rate decrease at the last Fed meeting, mortgage rates reached a low of 6.2%, but rates this morning are 7.04%. Last week, I touched on the activity in the bond market to explain this counter-intuitive move, with mortgage interest tied closely to the 10-year Treasury Note, which sits at 4.472% this morning. The 10-year Treasury needs to get closer to 4% or less to see an appreciable decline in mortgage interest rates. The Fed's limited tools and decreasing effect on our economy is a concern for bond investors as we wait to see where mortgage rates will trend in 2025. 

Inventory levels in Deschutes County for single-family homes dropped 58 this week to 1067. Fifty-five pending sales and sixty-six closed transactions are one less than last week's numbers and lower than the previous several weeks.Home prices have remained stable, with median price reductions ranging from -4.88% in the active inventory to -6.06% for the closed transactions. This range of price reductions is consistent with trends over the past year. This week, the median active list price is $770,000, the pending price is $679,900, and the closed price is $670,950. 

Crook County also experienced a drop in available inventory, now at 165 single-family homes for sale. Unlike Deschutes County, Crook County's activity remains consistent and strong, with seven pending sales and six closed transactions. The median active listing price of $599,900, pending price of $415,900, and closed price of $407,000 are all very close to trends over the last several weeks. Remember that the smaller transaction volume in Crook County and the median sale price can be impacted by Brasada Ranch sales, typically between $1.5M-$3M. 

Not to be left out of the decrease in seasonal inventory, Jefferson County also saw a decline this week, with 115 single-family homes available for sale. Three pending sales for the week are lower than a typical week in the county, but a solid eight closings are up over previous weeks. This week, the median active list price is $494,000, the pending price is $358,400, and the closed sale price is $378,625. 

Whether home sales pick up for the remainder of 2024 remains to be seen, and mortgage interest rates will heavily impact them. As we close out the year and head into 2025, inventory levels will drive the spring market. However, even this year's increased availability of homes for sale was considerably less than in years past. With roughly 5,000 new residents per year relocating to Deschutes County and more throughout Central Oregon, it is unlikely that conditions will change significantly. More often than not, the home you can afford that suits your needs deserves a close look. In my experience, waiting for conditions to change rarely produces better results. 

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With Thanksgiving just over a month away, the off-season housing market in Central Oregon has officially arrived. Typically, sales slow, inventory declines more rapidly, and many buyers pull back as holiday travel plans and commitments take center stage. While our elevated inventory relative to the previous few years is helping with selection, mortgage rates over 7% this morning are creating a headwind. However, sellers are motivated, and negotiated prices are helping buyers. Creativity in the form of rate buy-downs and seller credits at closing can help buyers and sellers achieve their goals.

This week, 1125 homes are listed for sale in Deschutes County, down 20 from the previous week. In a rare turn, there were more closings (67) than pending sales (56), highlighting a buyer retreat. 

Crook County inventory dropped six to 178 active listings. Six pending sales and four closed transactions are typical of the last several weeks. One of the Crook County sales was in Brasada Ranch, the sought-after golf course community near Powell Butte.

The number of active listings in Jefferson County increased by two to 119 homes for sale. Five pending sales in the county align with recent activity, with only one closed transaction. The sold property this week closed at $304,900, showing a reduction from the asking price of -4.62%.

Barring any tallying issues, we will know who our next president will be at this time next week. Another job report and a Fed meeting on the 6th and 7th will likely create short-term volatility in the mortgage markets. I expect the Fed to back off the dot-plot predictions of further rate decreases and to hold steady at the next Open Market Committee meeting. You can probably guess that I believe this time of year is an excellent opportunity for buyers. Lingering inventory and higher mortgage rates should keep home prices in check for buyers in the foreseeable future. 

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The drop in mortgage interest rates was a minor blip in the trajectory. This morning, rates for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage were 6.85%. Being under 7% is helpful, and rates should soften over the next several months. However, recent trends prove there is no direct correlation between Fed activity and mortgage rates. With the lending and real estate industries proselytizing on the pending rate "drop," it would be easy to hyper-focus on this metric. Rates certainly impact affordability, but rates and prices tend to move in opposite directions, much like the price/yield relationship with bonds. Many sellers are coming off their list price to secure contracts this fall, and buyers benefit. With significantly more homes for sale than in the last few years, conditions favor buyers. 

Inventory in Deschutes County dropped to 1145 single-family homes this morning, down twenty-eight from last week. This week last year, there were 838 homes listed, making the selection this year significantly better for buyers and forcing sellers to adjust. Sixty-seven pending sales and forty-nine closed transactions show steady activity, if not a bit subdued from the pace of summer sales. This week's average pending sale price is $804,538, with the average closed sale price at $913,145. 

Crook County's inventory climbed three to 184 single-family homes for sale, showing remarkable stability in the home supply. This week last year, there were 148 homes listed in the county. Seven homes are pending at an average list price of $490,535, with eight closed transactions at an average sale price of $557,112.

The housing supply in Jefferson County also shows remarkable stability. There are 117 homes listed, down only one from last week. This week in 2023, there were 83 listings. Five pending sales at an average list price of $459,000 and five closed transactions at an average sale price of $412,480 are consistent with the past several weeks in the county. 

Putting price and interest rates aside, the increased inventory of homes for sale in Central Oregon is a big help for buyers. How much inventory declines this winter will be a sign for the 2025 housing market. If sellers feel more marketing time is required and leave homes listed for the winter, increased spring inventory will shape the market. We already see that accurate pricing is critical to selling homes, and I anticipate that will continue. Although approximately 5,000 new residents per year call Deschutes County home. Supply and demand are wildcards that can be difficult to quantify. 

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One drawback to a Federal annual deficit of two trillion dollars is the need to monetize the debt through government bonds. Bonds sell in an auction format, and investors will only purchase the bonds if the yield makes sense in our inflationary economy. As the auctions wind down, bond yields rise if investors don't step up, and that rise in yields trickles down to financing costs in the form of car loans, credit card interest, and mortgage interest, to name a few. Mortgage interest rates closely follow the 10-year Treasury, which is at 4.009% this morning, with the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 6.62%. With mortgage rates at 6.14% just several days ago, home buyers feel today's rate sharply. As expected, home sales slowed with higher rates, and inventory decline is sluggish. Add in our typical seasonal taper towards the winter months, and the stats for this week in Central Oregon make perfect sense.

This morning, there are 1173 single-family homes for sale in Deschutes County, just one less than last week. A modest sixty-one pending sales at an average of $934,272 and sixty-one days on the market indicate less buyer activity than the previous several weeks. Fifty-four homes closed this week at an average of $1,040,460 and fifty-four days on the market. The sold-to-original price ratio was 93.81%, another indicator that sellers are taking steps to attract buyers.

Inventory in Crook County has shown resistance to decline, increasing by one from last week to 181. Five pending sales, at an average of $796,780, and nine closed transactions, at an average of $767,866, are consistent with the last several weeks. The average days the pending and closed sales were listed were seventy-three and twenty-five, respectively. Crook County's sold-to-original list ratio remains steady at 97.06% for the week, indicating a resilient housing market in the county.

In Jefferson County, inventory is flat from the previous week at 118. Five pending sales, at an average of $549,240 and 103 days listed, are typical for a week in the county. Three closed transactions, averaging $353,233 and 120 days listed, were also in line with the previous several weeks.

At this point, it is impossible to predict what the Fed might do with rates at the November meeting. The economic situation is complex, and it is becoming increasingly evident that the last aggressive rate decrease was politically motivated. And please spare me the narrative about the Fed not being political! With inflation picking up steam and recessionary, stagnant economic indicators flashing red, the Fed is between a rock and a hard place.

When steady rate decreases from the Fed seemed likely, it was reasonable to expect a flood of buyers to enter the housing market, excess inventory to decline, and home prices to remain firm. Unfortunately, even with Fed decreases, the bond markets can derail some mortgage interest rate "good times". Overall, the Central Oregon housing market is stable. But predictions about what comes next depend on expected market conditions to come to fruition. As data comes in and economic policies unfold, I will continue reporting on our housing market in real-time. 

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Available inventory is a significant metric impacting the Central Oregon housing market now and into the future. While more homes for sale this year than in the recent past has helped selection, prices have remained firm. However, there are signs that economic uncertainty might be slowing price appreciation. Also, after a stretch of mortgage rates hovering around 6.2%, the national average for a fixed-rate 30-year conventional mortgage this morning is 6.62%. Inventory did begin the seasonal decline more or less on schedule, but that decline has been slow, keeping conditions moderately in favor of buyers. How low inventory declines this winter will significantly impact spring market dynamics. Lower mortgage rates and a steady economy would mop up available inventory and put upward pressure on prices. However, a slowing in economic conditions and more inventory could derail that.

The inventory of single-family homes in Deschutes County is 1174, down modestly from last week. Pending sales of 71 align with recent trends but are down from last week's robust 89. Thirty-eight properties closed, a relatively small number compared to the previous few weeks and the lowest number since March 2024. This week in 2023, 846 single-family homes were listed for sale, compared to 905 in 2022. 

Crook County's inventory grew by one this week to 180 single-family homes listed. Eight pending sales and seven closed transactions show steady activity for the county. One hundred forty-four homes were listed this week in 2023, compared to 149 in 2022.

Jefferson County also experienced inventory growth, up two from the previous week to 118. Six pending sales and three closed transactions are consistent with a typical week in the county at this time of year. This week in 2023, 85 homes were listed, with 88 in 2022.

Comparing inventory today in all three Central Oregon counties to the past two years shows a significant increase in homes for sale. Buyer conditions are better than they have been in quite a while, but transactions are lagging. If this trend continues and homes for sale stay elevated, it could turn the expected dynamic of low rates, less inventory, and higher prices on its head this spring. 

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Buyers across Central Oregon are re-engaging the market with robust activity and dips across the board in inventory. This morning, the 30-year average for a fixed-rate conventional mortgage is 6.20%, unchanged from the last several days. I suspect many motivated buyers recalculated loan preapprovals over the previous few weeks, found homes and took action. Market conditions have considerably more impact than presidential elections, and buyers are stepping up. 

This morning, 1192 single-family homes are listed in Deschutes County, down from nine the previous week and the lowest number since June. Pending and closed transactions were both at 89, with the average pending sale price at $864,318 and the sold at $742,675. Inventory trends fluctuate over the seasons, and last week's flatline looks like an anomaly. 

Crook County wasn't excluded from the activity, with 179 listings this week, down three from the previous week. Pending and closed transactions also aligned, with nine in each category. The average pending sale price was $914,422, with the closed at $602,221. Prices are especially firm, with the sold-to-list ratio at 101.99% and the sold-to-original-list-price ratio at 100.38%.

Jefferson County inventory dropped four to 116 single-family homes listed. Six pending sales, at an average of $679,141, and four closed transactions, at an average of $516,500, are in line with the past several weeks. The average price reduction on the closed transactions was only 1.17%.

As the Federal Funds Rate declines, the velocity of money increases, putting upward pressure on inflation and hard asset prices. This dynamic is compounded by supply and demand in housing, and we are beginning to see an increase in activity after the recent decline in mortgage rates. With several more rate decreases telegraphed in the Fed dot plots, activity in the Central Oregon housing market should pick up through the remainder of the year and start with a bang in the spring. The increased activity will bring inventory down, increasing competition. 

There is little doubt that more homes on the market, seasonal price declines, and lower rates have created one of the best buying opportunities in a few years. However, targeting any particular time as "buy now!" or attempting to time the market is generally a poor strategy. The most critical component is your situation, especially if you plan to hold property for the long haul. Real estate in Central Oregon is on a steady upward trajectory, as is our population. 1997, there were 103,180 residents, and the average home sale price was $161,108. In 2007, those numbers increased to 150,113 residents, and the average sale price was $427,466. Last year, Deschutes County's population increased to 212,141; the average sold home price was $812,271. 

"Don't wait to buy real estate; buy real estate, and wait."

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Weekly pending sales across all three Central Oregon counties were strong this week, but inventory increased, which isatypical for this time of year. Many in the real estate industry have proselytized a drop in the overnight rate from the Federal Reserve as the relief needed to free up the market. However, rates this morning for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage are at 6.18%, nearly unchanged from before the last Fed meeting. Markets adjust based on predicted Fed actions and mortgage rates already priced in the Fed rate cut. Putting aside Fed activity and interest rates, consumer confidence dropped to 98.7, down from 105.6 in August. The reasons cited for the drop in confidence were declining jobs and rising inflation. For reference, the consumer confidence index was 132.6 in February 2020. There is little doubt that the upcoming presidential election has many on hold, awaiting the outcome in November. 

While the weather lately has been gorgeous, winter comes quickly at this time of year. Homes sell throughout the winter months but at a slower pace than during the warmer months. These factors combine this fall to create a slower market than many anticipated. Regular readers of this market report know I see these conditions as an opportunity for buyers. Lower rates, significantly more inventory than in the recent past, and anxious sellers are creating options that have been unavailable for several years. 

The dip in inventory last week in Deschutes County was short-lived. This week, 1261 single-family homes were listed, the same as two weeks ago. Pending sales were up seven to 71, while closed transactions were down considerably at 42. The median price change for pending sales was -7.95%, a considerable jump from drops in the 4-5% range for much of the summer selling season. 

Crook County's home inventory increased nine this week to 182. Eight homes are under contract, and five transactions have closed. The median pending sale price was $437k, with a median price reduction of a whopping -15.1%—three of the five closed transactions sold at the asking price. The remaining two homes closed at slightly less than the asking price.

Jefferson County inventory increased by two, now at 120 single-family listings. Seven pending sales at a median of $309,900 and one closed transaction round out the week—the closed sale sold for $285,000, 87.69% of the original list price. 

Many buyers and sellers wait for strong signals in the housing market to engage, but the best deals occur when the market slows. Waiting for prices or interest rates to align with a preconceived notion of what is correct pits consumers against each other and creates competition that negates much of the benefits. Housing is a solid long-term bet with a steadily growing population in Deschutes County and a well-qualified demographic arriving daily. Trying to time the market rarely gets the anticipated results. If you have been on the sidelines, I strongly encourage you to call your lender to see what today's rates do for your situation. Combined with seasonal falling prices and more inventory, the swing from a few months ago could be 100k or more in many situations. If mortgage rates continue to fall and inflation continues the upward trend, home prices in 2025 will surely increase. This fall is an opportunity for buyers that deserves a second look. 

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After what feels like an eternity, the Federal Reserve will announce today a decrease in the overnight rate of at least 25 basis points and potentially 50. Reducing 25 basis points will likely stabilize mortgage markets, with the 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage national average this morning at 6.11%. If the Fed chooses a more aggressive drop, I expect mortgage rates to drop below 6% for the first time since August 2022. With expected decreases in the last two Fed meetings of the year, there is little doubt that mortgage rates in the 5% range are coming. 

The housing market in Central Oregon isn't strictly following typical seasonal trends this year, and I suspect anticipation over lower rates has had a significant impact. However, while lower rates will help many buyers, there is a strong chance those rates will limit inventory next summer. Home prices are likely to increase if less inventory becomes a reality, along with more affordable mortgages. Our housing market is heavily impacted by winter weather, with significantly fewer transactions during December through February, building towards a peak in mid to late summer. As we approach the end of peak selling season, many properties have reduced the asking price to secure a contract by year-end. Buyers should keep this in mind, as refinancing down the road as rates decline and buying today could produce better results than waiting for lower rates later and competing with more buyers for less inventory. 

This morning, there are 1252 single-family homes for sale in Deschutes County, down nine from last week. A somewhat tepid sixty-four homes were placed under contract this week at an average of $816,433. Closed transactions were strong, with seventy-three homes recorded at an average of $891,158. The median days listed in the active inventory are seventy-seven. There is little doubt that opportunities are available in Deschutes County this fall.

In contrast to declining inventory in Deschutes County, Crook County saw an increase of six this week, with 173 single-family homes available. Eleven pending sales, averaging $562,899, are in the high range of recent months. Seven closed transactions, at an average sale price of $667,856, are the highest since June. The median days listed for active inventory in Crook County is seventy-five, close to the Deschutes County number. Two of the sales in Crook County this week went above the asking price, with one at full price and the remaining sales below asking by an average of -3.54%. 

Jefferson County inventory increased by two, now at 118 single-family homes listed. Five pending sales are in line with recent weeks at an average of $370,700. There were two closed sales, one at $315,00, listed for $310k, and another at $347,500, listed at $350k. 

Changes in the mortgage markets typically slow transactions, whether mortgages get cheaper or more expensive, and that is the case in Central Oregon at the moment. With rates declining, many buyers who have been on the sidelines need time to re-engage with their lenders, secure preapproval, and begin the process of finding a home. The slower market today will likely pick up steam before we settle into the winter months. At the risk of sounding like a skipping record, there are buying opportunities today that are considerably better than we have seen in Central Oregon in some time. When mortgage rates were last below 6% in 2022, the Central Oregon housing market was red-hot. While we might not see such a frantic sales pace in 2025, the conditions driving our market and ~5000 new residents per year in Deschutes County are unlikely to subside. 

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Your Bend Real Estate Agent is here to help

Reed Melton serves Bend and surrounding areas

Whether you are searching in Bend or any of the close by areas, I want to help you find the perfect property. Even if you are in the beginning stages of your search, I always like to be a resource, no pressure ever.

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