My Weekly Central Oregon Real Estate Blog

As we head into the 2025 peak of real estate activity, I wanted to provide perspective by recapping 2024. I hear a lot of opinions about the housing market today and where we are heading that are not accurate, and some hard data will help illuminate reality. 

Mortgage Rates

The numbers below reflect the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage. The trend is flat, with current rates in the low 7% range.

2022

January 3.41%, June 6.11%, November 7.08%

2023

January 6.12%, June 6.96%, November 7.34%

2024

January 6.87%, June 7.02%, November 7.03%

Next are the number of closed transactions, median sale price, and days on the market for 2022, 2023, and 2024.

Deschutes County

2022

Sold - 4,128, Median sale - $680,000, Days Listed - 9

2023

Sold - 3,161, Median sale - $664,900, Days Listed - 22

2024

Sold - 3,344, Median sale - $680,000, Days Listed - 30

Crook County

2022

Sold - 431, Median sale - $455,000, Days Listed - 21

2023

Sold - 358, Median sale - $448,000, Days Listed - 49

2024

Sold - 382, Median sale - $465,000, Days Listed - 39

Jefferson County

2022

Sold - 311, Median sale - $400,000, Days Listed - 19

2023

Sold - 218, Median sale - $397,000, Days Listed - 42

2024

Sold - 223, Median sale - $400,000, Days Listed - 48

The most significant recent changes in housing occurred from 2022 to 2023. Since then, most of the data points have remained flat. With the economic conditions we face in 2025, I do not anticipate a significant change in mortgage interest rates or a reduction in prices. There is no question that overpricing a property will extend sale times and require price reductions to entice buyers while appropriately priced homes are moving quickly. Every property has different levels of appeal, and considering all factors and promptly adjusting prices are essential for a successful sale. 

Looking at county data over the last three years is helpful for a broad overview of the Central Oregon housing market. However, different price points and locations are subject to variation from the wider trends. Furthermore, narrowing down the price for unique homes can be trickier, and our market has a highly diverse set of properties to compare. 

I have taught classes on market analysis to agents in my office and regularly assist our agents with challenging pricing scenarios. I also frequently run analyses for my clients on properties throughout Central Oregon. Whether buying or selling, lean on me for a comprehensive report that will provide the information you need to make a good decision.

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Reed Melton serves Bend and surrounding areas

Whether you are searching in Bend or any of the close by areas, I want to help you find the perfect property. Even if you are in the beginning stages of your search, I always like to be a resource, no pressure ever.

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With mortgage interest rates stuck above 7%, inventory remains higher than in the previous few years. However, pending sales are strong to start the year. While the days of multiple offers may be mainly in the rearview mirror, attractive, well-priced properties still sell quickly. 

Recently, I have seen mortgage interest predictions from many sources, some of which are as low as 6.2%. With rates for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage at 7.08%, 6.2% is far away. In the last several months, the Fed lowered the overnight rate by 100 basis points, a move predicted to decrease mortgage rates. While that dynamic may have been true before our national debt was $36T, mortgage rates have increased as much as the Fed has decreased in that time frame. With commodities prices rising, bond investors demand higher yields to offset the expected rise in inflation, set to outpace 2024. The current situation, years in the making, isn't changing anytime soon. With the Fed backing off from further rate decreases the mortgage markets are stable.

This morning, 755 single-family homes are listed for sale in Deschutes County, a modest drop of ten from last week.The increase in inventory and higher rates are not slowing down buyers, with sixty-one pending sales this week, the most since October. A median price change for the pending sales of -4.1% shows that prices remain firm. However, the median days listed for the active inventory is ninety-eight, while the pending sale days on the market are fifty-one. Overpriced homes are lingering, and correct pricing is vital to attracting buyers. Forty-one transactions closed this week at an average price of $948,958.

In neighboring Crook County, inventory only declined two, now at 143 single-family homes for sale. Seven pending sales show solid activity at an average list price of $556,928. The median days listed for pending sales was 117, while the number for active listings was 113. Homes in Crook County, particularly at the higher price points, are taking longer to sell. The average price of the three closed sales this week was $515,333

Jefferson County inventory increased by four to 93, consistent with levels of the last several weeks. With back-to-back weeks of eight pending sales, preceded by back-to-back weeks of six, the pending activity to start 2025 is the strongest since mid-2024. One home sold for $485,000 and 156 days on the market. 

With pricing primarily flat since 2022, an increase in homes for sale, and mortgage interest rates near recent highs, a candid assessment of a property's marketability and accurate pricing are paramount. Every buyer has access to the entire market, and overpriced homes are lingering. Economic conditions are not a doom-and-gloom scenario, as the flow of new residents to Central Oregon is consistent. However, a realistic approach is required to draw buyers in. 

I regularly create detailed analyses for clients on specific, unique properties throughout our region. Whether you want to buy a starter home or list a legacy property on large acreage, I have experience evaluating prices for buyers and sellers. Don't hesitate to reach out; I am just an email or phone call away!

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Your Bend Real Estate Agent is here to help

Reed Melton serves Bend and surrounding areas

Whether you are searching in Bend or any of the close by areas, I want to help you find the perfect property. Even if you are in the beginning stages of your search, I always like to be a resource, no pressure ever.

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This morning, the 10-year Treasury is down slightly at 4.662%, but mortgage rates are still at the highest levels since May of 2024, with the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage at 7.25%. Higher rates are keeping inventory levels up, and buyer demand remains steady. Over the last several days, a healthy dose of sunshine has helped after weeks of winter weather that helped build a snowpack in the Cascade Mountains. Mt. Bachelor has the most significant snowpack of any West Coast resort, and the flow of skiers and snowboarders to Central Oregon is noticeable. Not every visitor is looking at real estate, but many are, as growth in this corner of the world remains steady. 

Deschutes County inventory increased two this week to 765 single-family homes listed for sale. It is too early in the year to call out the bottom on inventory, but growth this week is bucking trends of the last few years. There is little doubt higher mortgage interest rates are the culprit. However, sales are also steady, with fifty-six pending sales at a median list price of $676,000 and an average of $819,918. Thirty-four closed weekly transactions at a median of $667,000 and an average of $930,426 are substantial numbers for early January. All indications indicate increased inventory in 2025, while mortgage rates remain stubbornly high. 

Crook County inventory is stable at 144, down just two from last week. Only one closed transaction, new construction for full price at $412,900, occurred this week, with a robust eleven pending sales for an average of $563,873. There were double-digit pending sales numbers in sixteen weeks of 2024 in Crook County, with the first in mid-February. Buyer activity is starting strong for 2025.

Jefferson County inventory declined three to eighty-nine single-family listings. Eight pending sales at an average of $493,674 is the highest since July. Two closed sales this week at $534,990 and $650,000 shows steady, consistent activity. Most people consider Madras the bulk of Jefferson County real estate, but parts of Terrebonne and the desirable Camp Sherman fall within the county's borders. Camp Sherman is an idyllic community at the headwaters of the Metolius River, across the highway from the Black Butte Ranch Resort. Jefferson County is a growing part of the Central Oregon Community and worth a look for anyone considering options in the area.

In real estate circles, mortgage interest rates are a hot topic. While I speak with many buyers attempting to navigate today's higher rates, many are motivated to find the right home in Central Oregon and are prepared to act when they do. I've also heard speculation about potential transplants coming to our area after being displaced by fires in Southern California. The devastation in Los Angeles County is an ongoing tragedy, and I suspect some local activity could occur. But, the push of new residents to Central Oregon has been consistent for years, with no end in sight. The increase in home prices, particularly at the higher price points, continues, and a volatile stock market, unrest in larger cities on the West Coast, and a failing commercial real estate market are all fueling the push to acquire desirable residential real estate. Most transactions in Central Oregon are for full-time residents, but a growing number of speculative and second-home owners are entering our market. I strongly encourage anyone waiting for prices to decline to reconsider the market. 

I specialize in market analysis and price opinions for buyers and sellers. If you would benefit from a professional analysis of a specific segment of our market, don't hesitate to contact me anytime.

Click here for the full report.

Your Bend Real Estate Agent is here to help

Reed Melton serves Bend and surrounding areas

Whether you are searching in Bend or any of the close by areas, I want to help you find the perfect property. Even if you are in the beginning stages of your search, I always like to be a resource, no pressure ever.

Ask a QuestionI need to sell my homeCall Me

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While the numbers from the previous week are low due to the holiday reducing the number of business days to close out last year, buyer interest is increasing. After a robust start to winter, this morning's sunshine is a welcome relief, and more is predicted for the next ten days.Conversely, there is no relief from mortgage interest rates, with this morning's national average or a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage at 7.14%. The next few weeks will set the tone for 2025, particularly with inventory levels.

The inventory of single-family homes in Deschutes County remains stable, with 763 listings, down only four from last week. Thirty-three homes are pending at an average list price of $731,834, and twenty-eight closed at an average of $967,699. The average price change for the closed transactions was -5.78%, with 51 median days listed. The average closed price per square foot was $439.

Crook County inventory dropped eight to 146 single-family listings. Activity remains steady, with seven pending sales at a median of $438,814. One home closed this week at $347,500 and $278 per square foot after being listed for 150 days. 

Jefferson County inventory is unchanged from last week at ninety-two. Six properties are pending at an average list price of $335,317. Five homes closed at an average of $369,799, with an average price reduction from the list of -5.69% and $231 per square foot. The median days listed for the closed properties was eighty-four.

Higher interest rates and increased inventory create stability in Central Oregon housing, allowing buyers to consider options and often have time to put an offer together. However, not every property is lingering, and homes on the market for a while likely have more than one buyer circling. As we approach spring, with new listings hitting the multiple listing service, I expect educated buyers looking through the off-season to jump on attractive properties. Considering the ebb and flow of our market, this is an easy prediction. Mortgage rates will likely remain in the high 6% to low 7% range, and buyers are adjusting to this reality. Housing stops for no one!

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Your Bend Real Estate Agent is here to help

Reed Melton serves Bend and surrounding areas

Whether you are searching in Bend or any of the close by areas, I want to help you find the perfect property. Even if you are in the beginning stages of your search, I always like to be a resource, no pressure ever.

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It is hard to believe it is 2025, but time goes by whether we are ready or not. With winter weather in Central Oregon, year-end is always a reset for the housing market, and this year is no exception. Smaller Jefferson and Crook County experience less change through the transition to a new year, while Deschutes County sees a marked shift and increasingly fewer homes listed until we reach the bottom sometime in spring. Here is a quick look at the activity in the holiday-shortened week.

Deschutes County inventory dropped by 81, now at 767 single-family homes listed for sale. This number excludes condos, townhouses, and manufactured homes on land. The average list price is $1,097,775, and the median is $759,032. Considering the time of year, 36 pending sales are a reasonable amount of activity, and the average pending sale list price was $763,631. Twenty-five homes closed this week at an average price of $829,664.

In Crook County, inventory only declined two, now at 154. The number of homes for sale in Crook County is low, and the numbers do not change as much as in larger Deschutes County through the end of the year. Five sales are pending this week at an average price of $752,140. Only one closed transaction occurred for the week for a small home in town that sold for $165,000.

Jefferson County has seven fewer listings this week than last, now at ninety-two. Pending activity was vigorous, with six homes under contract at an average of $468,783. Just one home closed for $434,000.

This morning, the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage is 7.07%, nearly unchanged from last week. While sales volume may be down this week, most of that is attributed to the holidays and fewer business days for year-end. To a degree, Central Oregon housing has defied higher prices and higher interest rates. With the steady influx of new residents, it isn't surprising that activity remains stable. The next metric to track will be how low inventory drops, when we reach the bottom, and how quickly new listings accumulate. As always, my weekly reports will keep you up to speed throughout the year!

Happy 2025!

Click here for the full report.

Your Bend Real Estate Agent is here to help

Reed Melton serves Bend and surrounding areas

Whether you are searching in Bend or any of the close by areas, I want to help you find the perfect property. Even if you are in the beginning stages of your search, I always like to be a resource, no pressure ever.

Ask a QuestionI need to sell my homeCall Me

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Merry Christmas! I hope you and your family have a wonderful holiday and enjoy quality time together as the year winds down. I have much to be thankful for this year, particularly all of my wonderful clients who rely on me to help them with their real estate needs. I feel blessed that so many of you trust me with your questions and tasks in the Central Oregon housing market!

As the year winds down and we begin speculating on what the housing market will look like in 2025, mortgage interest rates play a big part in the equation. This morning, after a week of spiking bond yields, particularly for the 10-year Treasury, the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage is 7.1%. Today's higher mortgage rate sits on the heels of another 25 basis point decrease in the Federal Fund Rate; the short-term rate banks charge each other for overnight loans. While reducing the Federal Funds Rate may take a bite out of credit card interest rates or car loans, long-term mortgage interest rates are not correlated. Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve plans to hold steady at the current rate. Hopefully, as spring unfolds, mortgage rates will soften. Although, with current economic conditions, I do not anticipate mortgage rates below 6.5% anytime soon.

The inventory of single-family homes in Deschutes County dropped again this week, now at 848, with the average listing price at $1,096,544. Pending sales remain consistent at 45 for the week, at an average price of $726,792. Closed transactions also remain steady at 46, averaging $849,754. The median price change for pending sales was -8% and -5.44% for the closed transactions. The median sold price per square foot was $321, and the average was $383. Several weeks of 2024, the average sale price per square foot was well above $400, showing how volatile this metric is weekly.

Crook County inventory decreased by eleven to 156, with the average active listing priced at $903,080. Eleven pending sales are the highest since August, averaging $742,725. Just three homes closed this week at an average price of $364,000. The median price change from the original list price for pending sales was -6.33%, while the closed transactions averaged -11.76%. Remember that the negotiated price for pending sales is not revealed until the transaction closes. This week, the median sold price per square foot was $229, and the average was slightly higher at $231.

This week, activity in Jefferson County was subdued with an increase in actively listed homes of one, now at 99. There were no pending sales and just one closed transaction at $390,000. The closed transaction went for the full listed price, 89.66% of the original list price. This home sold for $247 per square foot. Sold prices compared to the original list price are important considerations when looking at the prices of actively listed homes. In many cases, sellers bring the asking price down until a buyer steps up and then tries or succeeds in getting the "full price." Homes selling at full price often indicate the true market price, with several adjustments along the way before finding a buyer. 

Whatever the market brings for 2025, I will continue researching our inventory and staying current on the economy's essential metrics. In addition, working with buyers and sellers gives me necessary insight into home prices and what motivates people on both sides of a transaction. I am grateful to all of you who lean on me for help navigating our diverse market.

I look forward to seeing you in 2025!

Click here for the full report.

Your Bend Real Estate Agent is here to help

Reed Melton serves Bend and surrounding areas

Whether you are searching in Bend or any of the close by areas, I want to help you find the perfect property. Even if you are in the beginning stages of your search, I always like to be a resource, no pressure ever.

Ask a QuestionI need to sell my homeCall Me

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Today, the Federal Reserve is likely to drop the overnight rate by another 25 basis points despite inflation trending upward. However, mortgage rates this morning are up ten basis points from last week, with the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional loan at 6.92%. A decrease in the overnight rate is unlikely to have much impact on mortgage rates and won't help tamp down inflation either. Heading into 2025, I do not expect more Fed rate cuts for several months or longer. I also anticipate mortgage rates will be in the 6.5% - 7% range, slightly better than last year's rates during the peak of the selling season but elevated from early 2024. The two biggest factors impacting the Central Oregon housing market will be buyer demand and inventory levels.

This morning, there are 877 single-family homes for sale in Deschutes County, a decline of forty-eight from last week. Over the next several weeks, inventory will drop sharply as listings expire at the end of the year and sellers wait for increased spring activity to relist. Forty-four homes are pending this week at a median list price of $928,707, with sixty-three closed transactions at a median sale price of $775,096. The median days on the market for closed transactions was thirty-four, showing that desirable, well-priced homes are still moving

quickly. Activity is solid for this time of year, but including today, there are only nine business days left this year! Expect a decline in transaction volume over the next several weeks until we get settled into the new year.

Crook County homes listed for sale only decreased by four to 167. Inventory in the county has remained stubbornly low in the last few years, making significant reductions less likely as we head into winter. With five pending sales at a median list price of $349,000 and five closed transactions at a median sale price of $655,000, activity in Crook County remains consistent. Pending median sale days on the market were only thirty, with the closed days at forty-one.

Jefferson County inventory has remained low; this week, it only declined by one to ninety-eight. Two pending sales with an average list price of $413,700 and four closed transactions at an average of $480,791 are consistent with the last few weeks. 

While transactions will continue throughout the end of the year and into January, this is unquestionably the slowest time of year, with several holidays breaking up the weeks. As inventory declines, many sellers are positioned well with less competition. 

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Your Bend Real Estate Agent is here to help

Reed Melton serves Bend and surrounding areas

Whether you are searching in Bend or any of the close by areas, I want to help you find the perfect property. Even if you are in the beginning stages of your search, I always like to be a resource, no pressure ever.

Ask a QuestionI need to sell my homeCall Me

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Mortgage rates have softened as the year winds down, with the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional loan at 6.78% this morning. Today's rate is nearly identical to rates at this time last year. The Consumer Price Index data coming out today will be the final piece of the puzzle before the next Federal Reserve meeting regarding another potential rate cut. While recent Fed rate cuts haven't equated to lower mortgage rates, another overnight reduction couldn't hurt. 

Year-to-date sales for single-family homes in Deschutes County show 3,177 transactions, up slightly from last year's 3,054 sales by this day. Year-to-date, in 2022, there were 4,005 sales, and in 2021, 5,013. Inventory of available homes for sale has increased, while transaction volume has decreased, mainly due to higher interest rates. While rates may have softened demand, prices have been flat since 2022. With inventory experiencing typical seasonal decline, it will be telling for the spring market how low the number of homes for sale drops before the spring build-up begins. 

In Deschutes County, the number of homes listed for sale decreased again, now at 925, down thirty-nine from last week. Pending sales picked up to 48, with a median list price of $742,400. Closed transactions more than doubled from last week to 55, with a median closed price of $617,500. The median sold price per square foot was $361, with the average at $391. 

Crook County experienced a slight decline of three in the number of homes for sale, now at 171. Again this week, there was only one pending sale at a list price of $172,000. Five transactions closed this week at an average of $548,360 compared to zero closed transactions last week. The median sold price per square foot was $313, and the average was $330.

Jefferson County homes for sale dropped below 100 for the first time since June and are now at 99. Two pending sales, at an average of $414,995, and zero closed transactions are typical for this slower time of year. Last week, the two closed transactions averaged $246 per square foot.

There is little doubt this is an excellent time of year for buyers. However, finding the right property can pose a challenge with declining inventory. Mortgage rates may not drop significantly in 2025, but we also seem clear of the threat of rates above 7%. One thing is clear: the housing market in Central Oregon is showing more stability than in the last few years and looks more like a typical market. Demand from an excess of 5,000 new residents a year moving to Deschutes County puts a floor under housing prices, which would require a big shake-up to change significantly. 

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Your Bend Real Estate Agent is here to help

Reed Melton serves Bend and surrounding areas

Whether you are searching in Bend or any of the close by areas, I want to help you find the perfect property. Even if you are in the beginning stages of your search, I always like to be a resource, no pressure ever.

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County offices in Central Oregon were closed on Thursday and Friday last week for Thanksgiving, sharply reducing the number of business days for the week. In turn, the number of closed transactions was down sharply for the week. With just two weeks of business days left in 2024, any transactions not already in motion with a closing scheduled for 2024 will occur in 2025! I am always amazed at how quickly the last month of the year flies by, and this year is no different.

This morning, the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage is 6.85%, showing recent stability in rates. After much speculation about lower interest rates for 2025, mid-to-high sixes are the range we can expect to see in the foreseeable future. If this rate prediction comes true, I expect slightly more inventory of homes for sale to continue, with reasonable price stability. Nationwide, there is a lot of variation in housing dynamics from location to location, and many reports look at national numbers to quantify the market. While there may be some utility in seeing the housing market from a 30,000-foot view, the market you are selling or buying in is all that matters. 

The population growth in Central Oregon has had the most significant impact on home prices, along with reduced inventory. While homes for sale increased significantly this year, inventory did not increase enough to soften prices dramatically. Prices are up this year compared to 2023, even though growth from 2022 is flat. For sellers, these dynamics place extra emphasis on pricing correctly. There may be some bargains for buyers, but every market segment is different. Recently, I represented buyers on a home with multiple offers, showing that only some scenarios are conducive to below-asking price dynamics. 

This morning, Deschutes County's inventory of single-family homes dropped below one thousand for the first time since May. Now, at 964 homes for sale, the big question will be how low inventory declines over the winter and how quickly inventory builds in spring. The holiday-shortened week shows just thirty-six pending sales and twenty-five closed transactions. 

Crook County inventory climbed slightly to 174 single-family homes listed, up three from last week. One house was pending at a list price of $225,000 with zero closed transactions. This week, in 2023, there were 135 listings. While prices may not decline, additional inventory is helpful for buyers, with significantly more options at lower price points.

Jefferson County inventory is flat at 105 listings, down one from last week. One pending sale at $525k and two closed transactions at an average of $319k are typical of a short business week. 

The strong seasonal nature of the Central Oregon housing market allows for considerable speculation between calendar years. Even during the strongest markets, the winter transaction volume drops, making it difficult to predict trends until springtime. Over the next several weeks, I will break down the different segments of our market, comparing sales volume and prices from recent years. The off-season can be an excellent opportunity for buyers if they find a home that suits their needs. Sellers can also benefit from reduced competition with other homes for sale. Whatever your timeline, I would be happy to help you learn about our market and develop the best strategy for your situation. 

Click here for the full report.

Your Bend Real Estate Agent is here to help

Reed Melton serves Bend and surrounding areas

Whether you are searching in Bend or any of the close by areas, I want to help you find the perfect property. Even if you are in the beginning stages of your search, I always like to be a resource, no pressure ever.

Ask a QuestionI need to sell my homeCall Me

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Now that Thanksgiving is here, the 2024 real estate market is winding down. Most buyers looking today will not close on a property until 2025. Over the coming weeks, I will write an area-specific analysis of how the year shaped up. While sales volume and prices increased slightly over 2023, this year behaved similarly despite higher-than-expected interest rates. This morning, the national average for a fixed-rate 30-year conventional mortgage is 6.95%.

Deschutes County shows twenty-three fewer homes listed for sale than last week, now at 1,019. Fifty-two homes are pending at an average list price of $913,134. Fifty-three closed transactions at an average price of $833,135, with an average price reduction of -5.82%. While the volume of transactions is down from summer and fall levels, the volume exceeds that of the last two years seasonally. 

Smaller Crook County shows 171 single-family homes listed, a reduction of five from last week. A robust seven pending sales at an average of $464,271 outpaces the previous week by three. Four transactions closed at an average of $457,698 and an average price reduction of -5.6%. Transaction volume in the county remains strong, with many of the lower-priced properties finding buyers.

Jefferson County inventory decreased by one to 106 single-family listings. Five pending sales at an average price of $544,999 show consistent demand into the winter months. There were six closed transactions at an average price of $369,566 and an average price reduction of -8.13% to round out the weekly statistics. 

This time of year generally favors buyers, but our market is still competitive, depending on the property. On Monday, I helped clients secure a contract on a property with three offers and more coming. In these situations, the buyer, lender, and the rest of the team must be prepared to act quickly. Another important factor is knowing how to structure an offer that is appealing to a seller. Thankfully, everything came together on a great property, and everyone involved was essential to that happening. No matter what price or area you are looking for in Central Oregon, I can help with everything from research to property evaluation to closing. 

Happy Thanksgiving! 

Click here for the full report.

Your Bend Real Estate Agent is here to help

Reed Melton serves Bend and surrounding areas

Whether you are searching in Bend or any of the close by areas, I want to help you find the perfect property. Even if you are in the beginning stages of your search, I always like to be a resource, no pressure ever.

Ask a QuestionI need to sell my homeCall Me

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