My Weekly Central Oregon Real Estate Blog

Bend is a great place to raise a family, with plenty to do in a naturally beautiful setting. Whether it's a new construction home, a historic property with mature trees, or an affordable townhome or condo, Bend is an ideal place to invest in real estate in Central Oregon and put down roots with your family.

To learn more about homes for sale in Bend Oregon or choose the Bend neighborhood that is the ideal fit for your family, contact us any time.

Want to get to know the Bend area? One of the best ways is exploring this new hometown on a staycation. Consider some of these family-friendly activities to add to your staycation itinerary.

Wanderlust Tours

Book an adventure with Wanderlust Tours, who specialize in curating naturalist-guided experiences in Bend, Sunriver, and Sisters. Their tours have been a staple in the Bend community since 1993, offering adventures that include canoeing, kayaking, snowshoeing, caving, hiking, and more. If you want to get out and explore Central Oregon's lakes, rivers, cakes, and forests, but are not sure where to begin, this is an ideal place to start. Look through their variety of tours, ranging in length, difficulty level, and activities offered.

High Desert Museum

For one of the best places to learn about the culture, history, and wildlife of Central Oregon in Bend, take the whole family to the High Desert Museum. The museum features hands-on exhibits to help everyone learn more about the high desert, with over 100,000 square feet of indoor exhibits and art galleries, as well as special events and traveling exhibits throughout the year. Outside, you will find 135 acres to explore and you may even enjoy a wildlife sighting of creatures like river otters, porcupines, and raptors.

The museum is also filled with historical characters to help you learn more about the history of Central Oregon, a sawmill and ranch from 1904, and other unique experiences that will bring art, history, and science to life.

Hydrobike Rentals

Looking for something new to try on the water this summer? Rent a hydrobike from Central OR Hydrobikes. Perfect for all ages, this low impact outdoor recreation is a fun and unique way to explore. If you like biking on land, you might find you love it even more on the water!

Riverbend Park

Spend some time at the beautiful Riverbend Park in the heart of Bend, which offers access to the Deschutes River all year round. In the summer, launch your kayak or raft to float down the river or stay for a fun community event like a festival or concert. The park also features an off-leash dog area, access to multiple trailheads, conservation areas for wildlife, sprawling lawns, and miles of paved walking paths.

Bangers & Brews

Bangers & Brews has been a favorite Bend restaurant since its opening in 2017, a family-run and family-friendly sausage joint you won't want to miss. With two locations in Bend that are owned and operated by local family the Garcias, Bangers & Brews features an extensive beer list with something for everyone on tap, as well as house made sausages served with a variety of toppings and sides.

Ready to learn more about living in Bend? We can help. Contact us any time.

Image Rama, CC BY-SA 2.0 FR <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/fr/deed.en>, via Wikimedia Commons

If you follow Central Oregon real estate, and this report in particular, you will see that different parts of the market have radically different market dynamics. If I were to report on Crook, Deschutes, Klamath, and Jefferson Counties as a monolithic market with combined statistics, it would smooth over the variances between the counties and paint a picture that is not reflective of what is happening in different communities. Imagine what is taking place with the national real estate reporting. The results are even more skewed when the statistics consider large metropolitan areas with smaller communities. I hear various opinions about where the real estate market is today based on national reporting that does not reflect Central Oregon. 

While the year is still new, trends take time to develop, and generally speaking, what has happened recently is a good indicator of what the market will look like in a couple of months. For example, last September, when mortgage rates spiked, sales declined, and the median price reduction of pending sales increased. I encouraged buyers to engage the market as it was clear sellers were looking to negotiate and were not as firm on price. On December 14, 2022, I reported a median price reduction of pending sales of -10.53%. Weekly pending sales in Deschutes County hit lows of twenty-nine during short, holiday-interrupted weeks, considerably less than year end 2021. However, since mid-January, buyers have re-engaged the market, and a new trend is emerging.

In Deschutes County last week, there were sixty-four pending sales, the highest number since November. Median days on the market dropped to twenty-nine, the lowest since October. Price decreases declined to -4.98%, and the active inventory dropped to 510 single-family homes in the county. The trend developing today is strong buyer demand, and low inventory, two factors that keep prices firm. Considering that available homes for sale are likely to decrease from the already low number, the trend of firm prices will continue. You don't have to go too many years back to see that today's mortgage interest rates are in line with norms of the past, even if they are higher than the last few years' historically manipulated lows. Not to mention that lenders have many loan options, and seller credits towards interest buy-downs are increasingly common. Despite tightening affordability for many, newly listed properties are moving quickly, and the spring season looks like it will be similar to the last couple of years. However, correct pricing is vital, and overpriced properties are lingering on the market. 

Even with sales at roughly 50% compared with this period at the start of 2022, without more inventory, there is no downward pressure on prices in Deschutes County. However, one area that has dropped prices more than average is new construction. There have been forty-seven sales of homes built in 2022 or later since the first of the year, with a median price reduction of -7.14%. As a point of reference, there were 76 sales of homes built in 2021 or later to start last year, at a median price of +2.04% ABOVE the asking price! While sellers generally keep raising prices until buyers retract, builders have the incentive to move inventory and are quicker to adjust to market conditions. Therefore, for those looking at newly built homes, now is an excellent time to be a buyer. 

With how the housing market has developed over the last three years, monthly payment is the most significant factor to keep in mind. Focusing on prices and mortgage rates keeps many buyers on the sidelines at a time when conditions are relatively favorable. There have been very few times in history when housing prices have declined significantly, and homes are typically a haven in recessions. A glance at the Case-Schiller home price index at the bottom of my Market Trends page clearly shows the trajectory of home prices over time. No matter your opinion on the housing market's future, the tools you need to evaluate are available at EnjoyBendLife.com. I am ready to run a detailed personal analysis for your needs, so please reach out anytime!

Sidenote: Pronghorn Resort changed its name to Juniper Preserve. The URL on my website remains the same, but the labeling has changed to reflect the resort's new name. I have both names referred to on my website where it is possible. 

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This week's inventory of single-family homes for sale in Deschutes County dropped to 521, down thirty-two from last week. While there were indications that active listings had reached a bottom, that proved incorrect. Predicting how low inventory will drop and when we will see the low point is impossible, but this market metric is a strong indicator of where home prices are heading for the spring and early summer. In September, when rates first spiked, price reductions jumped from the typical -5% range to six, seven, eight, and eventually -10.53% for pending sales on December 14, 2022. As rates moderated, now at 6.17%, the percentage price decreases have also declined, with this morning's median price decrease for the previous week at -5.13%. Not surprisingly, pending sales reached the highest level since November 2, 2022, at fifty-seven. Year-to-date sales decreased by 50% to 156 compared with 314 in 2022, indicating that sellers are sitting on the sidelines at the start of 2023. 

Expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates today by twenty-five basis points, the lowest increase since rate hikes began last year. I do not anticipate mortgage interest to be impacted much by today's rate increase. With the next Fed meeting scheduled on March 21, the mortgage markets might experience less volatility than in the past several weeks. As I predicted a few weeks ago, all signs point to rates in the high 5% range as we approach the summer selling season. While the buying frenzy of 2021 and 2022 may be behind us, with low inventory, moderate rates, and firm prices, the summer season may feel similar to the last couple of years for buyers. Multiple offers on a single property may be less prevalent, but expect well-priced homes to move quickly. 

Occasionally, people ask what I do as a real estate agent that is unique. As those reading this report regularly know, I strongly believe in staying current on data. I also believe in consistent communication, and both of those aspects are on display in this weekly report. Now, those attributes are conveyed to users of my website after the latest version went live earlier this week. Many of you have commented on the streamlined look, and I greatly appreciate your feedback! Now, market stats are on the home page for Central Oregon and the specific area pages like Bend, Redmond, Sisters, etc. Those stats are listed for the last 30 days and give you a quick, up-to-date snapshot of our Market. In addition, of course, Market Trend Reports are available from the menu tab on the top navigation bar, as well as Market Reports showing all of the active, pending, and sold data for any area you choose. Scrolling to the bottom of the home or an area page, you will find links to many of the most popular Market Reports, or click Market Reports from the menu tab to set your parameters. Each property detail page has a link to a map in addition to other helpful information. For specific search details, the Advanced Search accessed from the menu tab gives you the power to search any conceivable metric in the Central Oregon Multiple Listing Service. Also, check out the blog page for recent posts about the great restaurants in Bend, or some fun, kid-friendly activities happening in Redmond!

As always, I am available anytime you'd like my expert input on a search, pricing, or any particular real estate needs you have. Recently, I have been researching investment properties as well as residential. So if you need help finding a great property manager or calculating cap rates on a rental, I am here to help. So enjoy your property search, but most importantly, Enjoy Bend Life!

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Redmond is one of the best places to live in Central Oregon, just 25 minutes north of Bend. Not only is Redmond a great place to live if you enjoy a fun restaurant scene or just about any kind of outdoor recreation, but it's also a family-friendly hometown with plenty of fun things to do with kids.

If you are wondering if Redmond might be the right fit for you as you look for your new Central Oregon hometown, contact us! We would love to help you find that new home sweet home.

Looking for something fun to do with kids in Redmond? After you've explored the many fun parks and playgrounds in town, check out these ideas.

Redmond Caves

Not too far from downtown you will find the Redmond Caves Recreation Site, featuring five caves that were formed thousands of years ago by a collapsing lava tube. Three of the caves are large enough to walk in and explore, for a fun and thrilling family day out. Don't forget to bring multiple sources of light and wear sturdy shoes, making sure to save this outing for kids that can comfortably navigate bumpy terrain on their own. Pets are welcome in the park, but not inside the caves.

Redmond Bike Park

If your kids are budding cyclists or looking to work on their bike skills, they will love living in Redmond with a thriving bike community all around. At Redmond Bike Park you will find a pump track and three dirt-jump trails to keep the kids entertained and challenged for hours. Whether they are into BMX or mountain biking, Redmond Bike Park will be a home away from home with a convenient location just south of Hartman Park.

Crescent Moon Ranch

Just a few miles north of Redmond in Terrebonne is Crescent Moon Ranch, Oregon's premier alpaca destination. Surrounded by views of the Three Sisters, Mt Jefferson and Smith Rock, the ranch is a beautiful place to spend a day outside. Bring the kids to meet and pet these impossibly soft creatures, and you can even sign up to help feed them! If you visit in the spring, you might get to see some newborn alpacas, too. Explore the specialty shop on site to learn about all the goods that can be made from alpaca's amazing fiber.

High Desert Museum

Take a short drive, less than half an hour from most places in Redmond, to the High Desert Museum to explore fun hands on exhibits and learn more about the high desert. The museum features over 100,000 square feet of indoor exhibits and art galleries, as well as special events and traveling exhibits throughout the year. Outside, there are 135 acres to explore where you might catch an up close wildlife sighting of creatures like river otters, porcupines, and raptors.

The museum is also filled with historical characters you and the kids can interact with to learn more about the history of Central Oregon, a sawmill and ranch from 1904, and other unique experiences that will bring art, history, and science to life.

To learn more about living in Redmond, contact us any time.

Inventory of homes for sale in Deschutes County increased by one to 553 this week, indicating we may have witnessed the low point for 2023. While it is likely that the number will bounce around for the next several weeks, an inventory low in late January is more in line with typical years, another sign that the pandemic buying frenzy is behind us. Interstingly, the days on the market for sold homes dropped considerably to 26 from last week's 65. The drop in days a home sits before securing a contract indicates that sellers have priced their homes correctly and buyers are stepping up to purchase. However, the median price reduction of the sold properties last week was -11.14% showing that sellers were willing to accept offers below asking at the end of 2022. Contrast that with the pending median price reduction of -4.61% this week, and it appears sellers made more minor concessions.

Mortgage interest rates hit a recent low earlier in the week before increasing slightly to 6.21% for the 30-year fixed-rate national average yesterday. This week's data shows sellers returning to the market, most likely because of more moderate interest rates and solid buyer demand. Although, for buyers, a growing number of homes for sale could help keep prices in check, particularly if the market slows. Although buyers have been reasonably active to date, well-priced homes are selling. As I've mentioned, the next several weeks will set the tone for the summer. To date, all the data points towards solid buyer demand, and the recent mild weather makes viewing properties easy. However, while sellers may see a strong market, there are considerably fewer buyers to start 2023 than in 2022. Since the first of the year, there have been 111 sales of single-family homes in Deschutes County compared with 233 for the same period last year. The decrease in sales impacts the inventory of available homes more than anything and will be something to keep an eye on. 

Wednesday, February 1, the Fed is projected to raise rates again by 25 basis points, equal to the smallest increases since rates started rising last year. The mortgage markets may react to a more significant increase, but even a 50 basis point increase is unlikely to impact mortgage rates much. Not surprisingly, the best word describing mortgage rates this year is volatile, and keeping in close contact with your lender is critical as you navigate the home-buying process. I anticipate rates below 6% as we approach peak season and, in turn, reasonably strong buyer demand. Understandably, many buyers have felt the pinch of unaffordability from higher rates, but many loan programs can help. 2023 is shaping to be a more balanced year for Central Oregon real estate, but it still requires diligence to stay on top of prices and find the right home. Conditions will likely stay the same, and any home that is a good fit is worth considering, especially for unique properties in great locations. 

Website Update: For those actively searching properties on EnjoyBendLife.com, you might have noticed some minor changes or glitches. I've been working on a rollout of the newest version of my site to streamline your home searching experience. Once the new site is live, you'll notice some market data visible on property search pages, a cleaner format, and easier access to the data you need. Also, everything will be optimized for your mobile phone, making it easy to search from any device. Like my recent designation of Principal Broker, updating my website is part of my ongoing effort to improve the service I provide continuously. I know you have many options in the real estate industry, and I am honored that so many of you rely on my website and weekly report to stay on top of the market. Please reach out to me at any time for all of your real estate needs!

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Where to Eat and What to Eat in Bend 

It's not often that you find a city the size of Bend with a restaurant scene this impressive. Bend is a community of about 100,000 people, experiencing significant growth but maintaining that small mountain town charm. One of the reasons people love living in Bend is the way it offers a little bit of everything. Enjoy all your favorite outdoor recreation with access to the beauty and tranquility of the surrounding rugged terrain, without sacrificing access to restaurants that are on par with what you would find in a major urban core.

Interested in learning more about living in Bend or investing in your ideal Bend real estate? We can help. Contact us any time to learn more.

Next time you are deciding where to eat out in Bend, consider one of these local gems.

Zydeco Kitchen & Cocktails

Offering Northwest cuisine with a fun Southern twist, Zydeco Kitchen & Cocktails is a fun place to plan a night out. Their convenient downtown Bend location features a hip, yet welcoming, ambiance. The menu focuses on locally sourced, organic ingredients from providers in the region, including lunch and dinner options as well as handcrafted cocktails. Zydeco is also the perfect place to stop by if you eat gluten-free, with a full menu of gluten-free options that won't skimp on flavor.

Bos Taurus

Looking for an upscale restaurant perfect for a special occasion in Bend? Look no further than Bos Taurus. The restaurant will welcome you with a chic, industrial ambiance. Choose from the best cuts of beef in the world, like A5 from wagyu from Japan, wagyu from Australia, or carefully selected steaks from North American ranchers. This is a steakhouse experience you will never forget.

The Blacksmith Restaurant

Located in a 1923 historic blacksmith shop in the heart of downtown Bend, The Blacksmith Restaurant is a trendy steakhouse with a cozy vibe. Distinctive, bold cuisine is combined with a laid back, welcoming atmosphere that makes for the perfect date night. Leather booths, brick walls, and ambient lighting make for a rustic and romantic setting. Stop by for happy hour in the lounge or get a reservation for a satisfying steak dinner. Their menu also features house made pastas and delicious seafood for those looking for an alternative to red meat.

Pine Tavern Restaurant

One of the oldest restaurants in Bend, Pine Tavern Restaurant was founded in 1936 and continues to be a  local favorite. The menu of classic American dishes includes their famous homemade scones with honey butter, as well as comfort foods like fish and chips, meatloaf, and baby back ribs. Head over to their location at the foot of Oregon Avenue and bring a hearty appetite. You can dine in the Garden Room, featuring two massive Ponderosa Pines for that classic Bend appeal.

Spork

Spork is a Bend restaurant that displays the best parts of this city's personality. Locally sourced ingredients are transformed into upscale food, in a casual and comfortable setting. The restaurant grew from the chef-owner's food cart out of his vintage Airstream trailer. Slowly building a following, he eventually opened what has become one of the top restaurants in Bend. Spork is known for putting their delicious personal twist on classic global street food, perfect for adventurous eaters looking for new flavors to explore.

To learn more about what it is like to live in Bend, or to begin the search for your next home, contact us any time.

Of the famous sayings in the real estate business, "real estate is local" is right up there in using the fewest words to convey a truism. This week, a respected industry analyst I follow spoke of rising inventory nationally and mortgage interest rates near 7%. While I follow the national real estate news, I am intimately familiar with Central Oregon statistics, which I access through our MLS. I can report unequivocally that the local numbers are bucking the national trends. For example, the inventory of Deschutes County single-family homes dropped again, now at 552, a decline of twenty-one from last week. According to Mortgage News Daily, and verified by a local lender, rates yesterday were at 6.17% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. So if you were to listen to the national media on real estate, you would likely be sitting out the best buying opportunity in the last couple of years. 

Pending Sales in Deschutes County were a solid fifty-one over the previous seven days, down one from last week. Crook County had ten pending sales, the highest number since September 14, and Jefferson County had four, the most since late November. The median days on the market for the pending properties in Deschutes County was sixty-five, balanced by ninety-two days for the active inventory. Fifty percent of the actively listed homes have reduced the asking price by a median of -5.46%. While no doubt asking prices have moderated, the median sale price in Deschutes County remains stable at 674k. However, the high asking prices of many properties are beginning to line up with reality. 

While the decline of homes for sale might not be as dramatic as last year, the volume is decreasing. You may recall that I reported a low in Deschutes County for 2022 in April of 333 single-family homes. Whether we reach that number and for how long inventory declines are unknown. Although mortgage rates, while still volatile, have settled in at the low 6% range. The heavily manipulated CPI has indicated a reduction in inflation. While the Fed is likely not finished with rate increases, many analysts speculate that Jerome Powell will waive the white flag on inflation and shift to easing monetary policy to fight the battle against a looming recession. Those factors combine to indicate that mortgage interest rates are likely to moderate rather than continue their climb into decade highs. I have already witnessed enough buyer activity at current rates that I am comfortable predicting increasing sales activity if mortgage rates dip below 6%. As I have often said, home purchases should have a long-term focus. A home that is an excellent fit for your needs is worth a second look. There are no guarantees that a similar home will be available later this year at a lower price. 

One area where similar homes are readily available lies in new construction, a segment of our market that has seen the deepest price cuts of late. Builders have sharp pencils and are intimately familiar with their costs. New home builders also have the incentive to clear inventory from their books and know that getting ahead of the market regarding price is critical to making a sale. As a result, in light of recent deep price cuts, I wouldn't expect new home builders to continue dropping prices through the summer, making now a great time to consider those options while there is a reasonably large selection. Keep in mind that waiting out the last cycle of real estate activity has not improved much for buyers. 

Lastly, whether a significant price drop materializes remains to be seen, but the chances of severe price reductions still need a rising inventory and reduced buyer activity. The next several weeks will strongly indicate prices for the rest of 2023. Suppose inventory continues to decline, along with steady or declining mortgage rates. In that case, I expect prices to remain firm, making my prediction of a 9% appreciation for Deschutes County for the year likely. On the other hand, a crashing economy, decreased buyer demand, rising inventory and days on the market, and interest rates above 7% would all have a deflationary impact on home prices. So far, the second scenario has yet to play out, although the year is still new. 

Whatever your views are on our real estate market, I am available to provide up-to-the-minute analysis, and help you plan your strategy, no matter your timeframe. 

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With the holidays behind us and halfway through the first whole week of business days of 2023, it is apparent that buyer demand in Deschutes County remains strong. Pending sales from the previous seven days were fifty-two, up from the twenty-nine sales over the New Year's interrupted week. During the same period, sales increased by nine to thirty-seven. Active inventory decreased to 573 from 612 last Wednesday. Remember, active inventory in 2022 reached the bottom in April and hit a low of 333 homes for sale in Deschutes County. 

I have written extensively about the volume of homes for sale indicating price trends, still one of the best leading indicators. When and how quickly the inventory of actively listed properties builds will be a telling sign. In the years passed, between the bottom of the sub-prime lending housing crash and pre-pandemic, the volume of homes for sale typically began to rise in late January. With the volume of homes for sale still significantly lower than pre-pandemic, all the early indication shows sluggish growth of actively listed properties. The 30-year national average fixed-rate mortgage yesterday was 6.21%, as rates have moderated recently. While the Fed continues to telegraph raising rates to combat inflation, analysts believe the subsequent increase will be 25 basis points, half of the last increase and a third of most increases in 2022. If 25 basis points are the number, I expect mortgage interest rates to shrug that off and remain stable or rise slightly. However, a bearish view on inflation from Jerome Powell and a higher-than-expected increase could spike mortgage rates. The predictability of the Fed and forward guidance assumptions have everyone on their toes in this crazy economic cycle. Buyer demand may be lower than in the last couple of years, but higher mortgage interest rates keep sellers on the sidelines. No matter the reason, lower inventory helps keep home prices firm. This fact is illustrated by the median sale price in Deschutes County last week of 720k, up from 557k the previous week. 

Central Oregon has a highly diverse pool of home types and styles, and there is more to the picture than just Deschutes County. For example, the inventory of homes for sale in Crook County increased last week by six to one-hundred-thirty. Jefferson County inventory increased by two to seventy-seven homes for sale. During the previous seven days, there were seven sales in Crook County and three in Jefferson County. For any buyers looking for a bargain, the outlying areas and smaller communities of Central Oregon could be an option. Remember that a change week-over-week is only a blip in the data, not a trend. 

I would caution buyers and sellers to take the national media reporting on home sale activity with a grain of salt:

1. Most of the data the mainstream media rely on is outdated and lags behind our current situation.
2. Heavily populated areas have an entirely different dynamic than Central Oregon, and significant changes in places like Phoenix skew the national numbers.
3. I'm sure most of you have heard of rising inventory and falling prices, but for those following my weekly reports, you know that is not the case locally. 

I've recently witnessed a large discrepancy between the prices of comparable homes. A thorough analysis of the trends and our current inventory is the best way to calculate prices that reflect our market. I put my research and tracking of the market against anyone and would be happy to run an analysis for your specific needs.

Over the last several weeks, I've studied to become a principal broker and passed the exam last Wednesday. My goal is to provide my clients with the best possible service, and the principal broker designation is another step in that never-ending process. The title will keep my day-to-day activities the same but shows my continued commitment to the highest service I can provide. Please feel free to call me today if you have any real estate needs or questions.

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Happy New Year! Can you believe it is 2023? At the start of last year, many thought 2022 would be a reprieve from the madness of 2021. Of course, whether that is true depends on your perspective, but there is no doubt that the year ahead will be unpredictable in real estate and economics.

Single-family homes for sale in Deschutes County declined over the previous week to 612 from 669, a trend that is likely to continue through spring and early summer. One of the big questions on everyone's mind is what home prices will do in 2023. Since low inventory keeps prices firm, so far, the early indicators show stability in pricing. However, that is easier to quantify by looking back over the last couple of years. 

In recent history, the last "normal" year was 2019, with 4248 sales at a median sale price of 425k. The median price reduction in 2019 was -3.65%. 2020 was a mix with pandemic restrictions taking effect in the spring, followed by a month of slow sales, before taking off in unprecedented fashion. 2020 ended with 5326 sales and a median price of 465k, a 9.4% increase from the previous year. Price decreases in 2020 were modest at -2.7%. 2021 was all about skyrocketing prices, with sales barely lagging the last year at 5256. The median sale price in 2021 was 603k, with the corresponding median price decrease at -3.82%. However, most sellers were getting their asking price, or in many cases, much more, reflected in the 29.7% increase from the last year! Finally, 2022 ended with a more typical sales volume of 4122 and a median price decrease of -5.14%. Price appreciation was still robust at 12.77%, although well below the astronomical increases of 2021.

What do these numbers show for the year ahead? First, of course, another factor to watch is mortgage interest rates. The 30-year national average for fixed-rate mortgages stands at 6.45%, more than 3% higher than one year ago. The rate spike undoubtedly played a role in fewer sales for the year, but buyer demand remains at pre-pandemic levels. Moreover, since the climb in interest rates, sellers have adjusted with price reductions and, in some cases, accepted offers below their asking price. Although, even with price reductions, prices were up over the previous year. The national reporting mentions rising inventory. However, in Central Oregon, that has yet to be the case. Whether the economy has improved or inflation is under control remains to be seen. The resilient home-buying public has adjusted and remains engaged in the market. Without a significant drop in buyer demand and a corresponding increase in homes for sale, there will be little downward pressure on home prices. We also are at a point where mortgage rates are relatively stable, even if they increase slightly over the next few months. Many buyers have accepted today's rates and have resigned to paying more until rates decline in the future when they can refinance. A healthy volume of cash buyers, immune to rate increases, remain in the market.

While I've mostly ignored home price appreciation predictions for 2023, I'm prepared to offer my own Central Oregon prediction after analyzing the numbers above. I anticipate a 9% appreciation in 2023 over 2022, in line with pre-pandemic trends. While it is possible homes for sale remain low and push that number over 10%, my gut tells me interest rates will keep appreciation in check. If available homes for sale increase significantly, I will adjust my prediction to 7%. Considering all of the information in this report, my predictions are hardly groundbreaking or putting me on a limb. Suppose all the factors slowing the housing market continues, and the economy falters. In that case, my long-term assumption points toward less appreciation in 2024, but that is too far out to predict, considering how the market has been behaving lately! 

For all of the new readers of this report, I give my take weekly on Central Oregon real estate statistics, primarily focused on Deschutes County. Of course, I also track Crook and Jefferson County, but Deschutes is the largest pool of data that provides the most insight into developing trends. So stay tuned for hyper-local information, and feel free to reach out anytime you need a hands-on analysis tailored for you. Also, check out my Testimonials page to see what my past clients have to say!

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Hopefully, everyone had a relaxing Christmas weekend! I wish you and your family a happy and prosperous New Year!

Some real estate activity in the last week is noteworthy between eggnog, family dinners, and football games. First, the inventory of single-family homes for sale in Deschutes County dropped to 669, down twenty-five from the previous week. Second, the median days on the market for actively listed homes increased to ninety-one, up five from last week. While the inventory might follow the previous year's trends, the number of days a home is on the market before acquiring a buyer is up significantly. As we head into 2023, days on the market will be a telling indicator of buyer demand. Twenty-one homes closed last week, less than half of the previous week, which isn't surprising due to the short holiday week. Many listing contracts have year-end expiration dates, and I expect another drop in inventory by next week. Still, home prices of re-sale homes (not new construction) have stayed firm.

The sales of new construction listed with the year built as 2022-2023 tell a different story. Two hundred seventy-eight newly or under-construction homes are available between Crook, Deschutes, and Jefferson Counties, with corresponding median price reductions of -5.98%, -4.86%, and -4.93%. Admittedly, those price reductions are less than the active inventory of re-sale homes listed, but some digging reveals a different story. For starters, there were only seven pending new-construction sales last week and nine sold homes. One of those sales was in Jefferson County (Madras) and went for 309k, 10k above the asking price. The price increase was most likely related to an add-on by the buyer rather than a bidding war. Six new-construction sales were in Deschutes County at a median of 605k and 8.56% below the asking price. Finally, in Crook County, two homes sold in the MLS showed prices equal to the list price. However, those sales were 16.47% below the original list price. The avid readers of this report may recall that a new-construction home in Madras sold a couple of weeks ago for 23.44% below the asking price, so the recent Hayden Homes sales in Crook County are not a price reduction anomaly. New home builders are especially willing to make deals as we head into 2023, something to keep in mind as you evaluate your options.

The national average for 30-year, fixed-rate conventional mortgages increased to 6.5% yesterday. The next Federal Reserve, Open Market Committee meeting is at the end of January, and I am still looking for a particular insight into what Jerome Powell has in mind. However, based on the hawkish tone of Fed board members and Powell himself, it is reasonable to assume they will not hesitate to raise rates further if the data show persistent inflation.

The Case-Schiller House Price Index indicates four consecutive months of home price decreases and declines in all of the cities the index tracks on a month-to-month basis. Although, the index also reported an annual gain of 9.2%. For any Substack readers, check out the CalculatedRisk Newsletter for a regular report on the national numbers and some key cities. Central Oregon real estate operates under different conditions than major cities or heavily populated areas, so my hyper-local weekly reports are more on point than the national reporting. However, the national trends have an impact and eventually may reflect in our local data. 

Real estate as an investment works best with a long-term focus. The best indication that the time is right to buy is when you are ready, can afford the payments, and like what is available. Refinancing is always an option in the future should rates decline. There is little doubt that the higher interest rates of late have created pent-up buyer demand, and a significant drop in rates is likely to cause a surge in demand and prices. The housing market is always a balancing act. I can help by providing up-to-the-minute data and a deep knowledge of the available inventory. Whatever your needs, don't hesitate to get in touch with me anytime you need assistance!

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