My Weekly Central Oregon Real Estate Blog

After a remarkably mild winter and an early spring, real estate activity, particularly new listings, is ramping up. While the buildup of new listings is uneven across the different price tranches, the pace is picking up. Mortgage rates are stubbornly above 6%, which is significantly better than one year ago, but not as low as many expected. There is still a solid chance rates settle into the high 5% range by late in the third quarter; until then, I expect to see typical 30-year conventional mortgages between 6% and 6.25%, and Jumbo loans near 6.5%. 2026 is shaping up to be a solid year, but only incrementally better than 2025. Stability is the word of the year, with desirable properties still moving quickly.

The active $1 million to $1,999,999 segment of the Deschutes County single-family housing market supply grew by 19 to 262 listings this week. Nine sales are pending this week, down from 17 last week. Only three of the pending sales reduced the asking price before securing a buyer by an average of 1.91%. Four transactions closed this week with a sold-to-original-list-price ratio of 94.63%. Despite the beautiful early spring weather, the selling season is still ramping up, and the swings in activity from week to week are typical for the time of year. I will track year-to-date sales versus 2025 to determine whether demand is declining over the next several weeks. So far, sales are very close to last year's pace.

Deschutes County single-family listings between $2 million and $2,999,999 increased by four to 64 this week. Three sales are pending, with two reducing the list price by 2.2% and 4.1% before securing a buyer. One transaction closed this week at $2,195,000 in Broken Top, an immediate off-market sale negotiated with no days on the market in the MLS.

Single-family homes listed for over $3 million in Deschutes County increased by 1 to 31, with the average listing price at $5,530,452. There were no pending or closed transactions this week, the third consecutive week with no activity in this price tranche.

Crook County homes listed for over $1 million increased by three to 38 this week. It was a relatively active week in the county, with two pending sales at $1 million west of town and $1,350,000 in Powell Butte. The listing west of town on Campbell Ranch Road was an immediate sale, and the Powell Butte listing on Reif Road listed for only four days. Two transactions closed this week at $1,220,000 on Ranchview Court in Brasada Ranch and at $1,380,000 on Ranch Road in Powell Butte. The Ranchview Court listing closed at 90.44% of the original list price, and the Ranch Road listing closed at 95.5% of the original list price.

Deschutes County farm listings over $1 million are stable at 14 with no pending or closed transactions. Crook County Farm listings over $1 million are down by one to 10 with no pending or closed transactions.

Evaluating price is a key component to identifying great deals as supply grows. With exceptional properties moving quickly in many cases, being ready to take advantage when desirable homes hit the market is also important. I am always up on market activity and available anytime you need a market analysis to help in any capacity you are engaging Central Oregon housing. My market comparisons are in-depth and take years' worth of data and current conditions into account. Do not hesitate to reach out if you have any questions about current conditions! 

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The Central Oregon housing market remains steady, but only incrementally more so than last year. While mortgage rates are undoubtedly lower, the national average for a fixed-rate 30-year conventional mortgage today is 6.31%, up 30 basis points from recent lows. The 6% threshold appears stubborn so far in 2026, and it is unlikely to change until the third quarter at the earliest. Supply is building amid early-summer-like weather, creating opportunities for buyers and bringing down the average days on market for pending and closed transactions. A benefit of these market conditions is stability in prices and conditions, and fewer surprises.

Today in Deschutes County, supply is up by 57 to 959 single-family homes. This week in 2025, there were 927 active single-family listings. Fifty-nine pending sales this week are down 16 from last week, with the average list price at $810,408. Two hundred six homes are pending in the last three weeks, nearly identical to last year's 204 for the same time period. Thirty-six closed transactions are down 13 from last week, with the average at $804,365, and the sold-to-original-list-price ratio at 97.18%, nearly identical to last week's 97.19%.

The sluggish inventory build in Crook County is beginning to break, with 12 more listings this week, bringing the total to 181 single-family homes on the market. In 2025, this week in March, 161 single-family homes were listed. This week marks the third consecutive week with 12 pending sales, nine more than the same three-week stretch in 2025. Four transactions closed this week, up from two last week and averaging $886,250, with the sold-to-original-list-price ratio at 94.79%.

Inventory in Jefferson County is up by two from last week, now at 112 single-family listings. This week of March 2025, 106 single-family homes were listed. Six pending sales this week are up two from last week, with the average pending list price at $480,157. Four transactions closed this week, averaging $333,499, with the sold-to-original-list-price ratio at 98.69%.

The phrase that best describes the 2026 housing market in Central Oregon so far is "incremental improvement." Exciting real estate data translates to a hectic, stressful market, and I am sure many buyers are relieved by steadier conditions. While sellers may not be seeing dramatically higher prices, it has become far easier to determine accurate pricing in today's market.

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Last week, the activity in the luxury markets slowed, but volume this week rebounded, dispelling any hint of a market slowdown. Spring in particular can be up and down, just like the mortgage markets of late.

Those of you who also read my Wednesday report know I believe mortgage rates will remain range-bound between 6% and 6.25% through the second quarter, when Kevin Warsh is likely to take over at the Fed from Jerome Powell. Warsh still needs Senate approval, which is likely to happen, despite some early resistance from banking committee member Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican. Interestingly, the resistance is due to a probe of Jerome Powell, and seemingly has nothing to do with Warsh. Candidly, this is all just noise, and I expect Warsh to gain the nomination in the end.

There may still be a strong chance that rates soften in the third quarter, but even then, I expect Warsh to take a cautious approach, in typical 25-basis-point increments. For Central Oregon luxury real estate, expect stable prices, relatively more supply, and steady buyer demand.

Supply of single-family homes in Deschutes County between $1 million and $1,999,999 increased by nine to 243 in the seasonal buildup to peak inventory this summer. A whopping 17 listings are pending this week, up by 12 from last week. Nine transactions closed, with just two of those sales reducing the list price before securing a buyer. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 95.53%.

In the Deschutes County $2 million to $2,999,999 price tranche, there are four more listings than last week, bringing the total to 60. There are two pending sales this week: the first at $2,500,000 on Awbrey Butte, and the second at $2,760,000 in Tumalo. Two transactions closed this week: the first at $2,052,000 in Caldera Springs near Sunriver, and the second at $2,500,000 in the Broken Top golf community in Bend. The Broken Top listing was on the market one day before securing a full-price offer. The Caldera Springs listing was new construction with an original list price of $2,185,000.

Deschutes County luxury listings over $3 million are stable at 30, with no pending or closed transactions this week or last. Two sales were pending as of the week ending February 27, and the year-to-date sales total is four.

Crook County luxury listings over $1 million had a strong week, with supply declining by 3 to 35. Two sales are pending in Brasada Ranch: the first at $1,825,000 on Brasada Ranch Road, and the second at $1,899,000 on Wooden Trestle Court. One transaction closed this week, also in Brasada Ranch, at $1,300,000 on Ranchview Road.

Deschutes County farm listings over $1 million increased by one to 14, with no pending or closed transactions.

Crook County farm listings over $1 million decreased by one this week to 11. The decrease was due to a pending sale NE of Brothers on Tackman Road, listed for $2,800,000. The Tackman Road listing is remote and sits on 3,190 acres with a BLM grazing permit and an undisclosed amount of creek irrigation.

A trend is emerging of buyers jumping on great properties, with single-digit marketing times. These quick contracts are not across the board, but educated buyers are ready to act fast when the right fit hits the market. The more specific your needs are, the more important it is to respond quickly. Still, we are experiencing early-season conditions, with increasing supply. Every week brings a different mix of possibilities, and that will continue for the next few months. 

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This morning, the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.19%, up slightly from a low of 5.99% on February 24. On January 21, 2025, the rate was 7.05%. While the trend is lower and undoubtedly helping buyers, the 6% threshold has been stubborn. With the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh set to take the reins from outgoing Chair Jerome Powell on May 15, the appointment still needs Senate confirmation. The likelihood of Powell cutting rates again before the end of his term is low, and there is every reason to believe Warsh will be cautious before enacting any changes. Unrest in the Middle East could throw a wrench in the gears, but a rate cut before the end of the year under Warsh isn't out of the question. However, for mortgage rates this summer, it is likely that current levels will hold for the foreseeable future. Keep in mind that a spike in yields on the 10-year Treasury followed past Fed rate cuts, and it has taken time for markets to settle after Fed activity.

Takeaway: Mortgage rates today are favorable and unlikely to change dramatically until the third quarter of 2026.

This week in Deschutes County, the biggest inventory spike of the year occurred, up 49 from last week to 902 single-family listings. Seventy-five pending sales are up three from last week, with the average pending list price at $852,743. Forty-nine transactions closed at an average of $798,534, and a sold-to-original-list-price ratio of 97.24%.

Crook County inventory is stable at 169, the same as last week. The build-up to peak inventory occurs later in smaller Crook County, a trend that has persisted for years. Twelve pending sales are also the same as last week, with the average pending sale price at $701,800. The pending average is $180k higher than last week, but two Brasada Ranch listings just under $2 million skewed the results. Two transactions closed this week: $435k on Tyler Street and $475k on Martingale, just west of Main Street. The Tyler Street listing closed above the asking price, and the Martingale home just below the list price.

Jefferson County's inventory remains tightly clustered around the 110 mark, exactly where it is this morning, up two from last week. Four sales are pending, averaging $522,249, down four from last week. Five transactions closed this week, down one from last week, and averaging $424,790, up from $366,491 last week. The average price reduction before securing a contract this week was 1.04%, with the sold-to-original-list-price ratio at 97.67%.

Activity in 2026 has been steady, but has yet to really take off. I suspect some are sitting back to see what develops. Once the trajectory of mortgage interest rates becomes more apparent, with continued inventory growth, I suspect activity will increase. I still anticipate more sales in 2026 than in 2025 and the most since 2022. The market remains stable, but relatively modest activity and growing supply are keeping sale prices in check.

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Across all price points, this week has been slow. In real estate, one slow week is meaningless, but with everything going on in the world, I will be watching to see if this is a building trend. Mortgage interest rates have been up a bit recently, but not significantly, while supply is outpacing last year at this time. The wider view shows good conditions for buyers, and over time, we will see whether that translates into more transactions as spring unfolds.

Deschutes County listings between $1 million and $1,999,999 increased by nineteen this week to 234. Five sales are pending, down three from last week. Thirteen transactions closed this week, up six from the previous week. Five of the thirteen sales reduced the asking price before securing a contract, a very modest average of 2.3%, with the sold-to-original-list-price ratio at 98.29%.

In the $2 million to $2,999,999 tranche, supply increased by 3 to 56 single-family listings. One sale is pending at $2,100,000 on Deschutes Market Road in Bend. One transaction closed at $2,870,000 on Eastes Road in Bend, at 95.7% of the initial list price.

Deschutes County listings over $3 million increased by one to 30, with no pending or closed transactions.

Crook County listings over $1 million increased by 2, to 38. One sale is pending at $1,050,000 in Longhorn Ridge, with no closed transactions this week.

Deschutes County Farm listings over $1 million decreased by one to 13, with no pending or closed transactions.

Crook County Farm listings are stable at 12, with no pending or closed transactions.

One slow week is not a trend, but at this time of year, it can make a big difference in increasing supply. With inventory ahead of last year's pace, buyers will have more selection than at any time in the recent past. With mortgage rates jumping around, I encourage buyers to stay in touch with their lenders. For sellers, my advice hasn't changed: price correctly for the market! Overpriced listings are lingering and require a retreat that, in many cases, is more than if the property had been priced right from the start. There is never a dull moment in real estate, and this year is already keeping us on our toes.  

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Strong pending-sale activity this week throughout Central Oregon coincides with rising supply and lower mortgage interest rates. With more homes available, buyers have an easier time finding what they want, and lower interest rates soften monthly payments. Mild spring weather also makes touring properties easier. However, sales year-to-date in 2026 are down, with mixed sales price numbers.

This morning in Deschutes County, there are 853 single-family homes listed, up by 25 from last week. Pending sales matched last week at 72, with the median days on market at just 12, and the average list price at $824,993. Fifty-nine transactions closed this week, averaging $822,760, with the sold-to-original-list-price ratio at 94.92%. At this point in 2025, 465 single-family sales were averaging $855,016. To date this year, there have been 425 sales averaging $833,812. I expect this gap to narrow as the year progresses, but these numbers are not what you would expect given that mortgage rates have dropped significantly since last year.

Crook County inventory is up by eight this week, now at 169 single-family listings. Twelve pending sales this week are up five, with the median days listed at 100 and the average list price at $520,967. Eight transactions closed this week, averaging $487,112, and the sold-to-original-list-price ratio at 87.37%. To date this year, there have been 47 sales, compared to 48 last year. The Average sale price at this point in 2025 was $402,400, compared to 494,000 this year.

Jefferson County's inventory declined by two this week to 108. Eight pending sales match last week, with a median days listed of 127 and an average list price of $404,843. Six transactions closed this week, averaging $366,491, with the sold-to-original-list-price ratio at 97.42%. So far in 2026, there have been 30 closed transactions averaging $413,561, compared to 41 and $428,768 in 2025.

There could be any number of reasons sales are down this year to date, but some are likely waiting to see if mortgage rates go lower. Inventory across all three counties of Central Oregon is up year to date, and combined with lower mortgage interest rates and sellers being more realistic about price, it is only a matter of time before buyers step up. However, early indications suggest buyers are somewhat cautious, which sellers should keep in mind when pricing their homes.

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Spring weather and lower mortgage rates are accelerating the housing market, with some notable pending sales this week. This morning, the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage is 5.99%, the 30-year Jumbo rate is 6.26%, and the 15-year fixed-rate is 5.6%. Inventory growth slowed this week, but fits and starts are typical for this time of year. Abundant sunshine and warmer weather are sure to kick things into overdrive over the next several weeks.

This morning in Deschutes County, listings between $1 million and $1,999,999 increased by four to 215. Eight sales are pending, with just two of those properties reducing their asking price before securing a contract by an average of 2.71%. Seven transactions closed this week, with four of those sales reducing the asking price an average of 4.62% before securing a buyer. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio, which shows how much the seller negotiated down for buyers, was 94.9%.

Moderate activity in the $2 million to $2,999,999 tranche has decreased supply by 2 listings from last week, to 53. Four sales are pending, and none of those properties reduced the asking price before securing a contract. Two transactions closed this week, the first at $2,350,000 on Starview Drive on Awbrey Butte, and the other at $2,750,000 on Lower Village Road above the Big Deschutes River in Bend. The Starview Road property was on the market a cumulative 584 days, and closed at 85.45% of the original list price. The Lower Village Road property was marketed for 215 days and closed at 91.82% of the original list price.  

Listings over $3 million in Deschutes County are up by 1, to 29. Two sales are pending: $3,635,000 in Caldera Springs and $17,495,000 for R&R Ranch (previously known as the R&B Ranch). Caldera Springs is building out phase two of the neighborhood, with consistent sales as new properties hit the market. For those keeping an eye on the high end of Central Oregon housing, the pending sale of R&R Ranch is notable. The last sale of the R&R Ranch was on August 15, 2023, for $15 million. However, the seller carried back another $1 million, bringing the total to $16 million. I will report on the final negotiated sale price when the transaction closes. No transactions closed this week.

Crook County inventory over $1 million increased by two to 36 this week. Two sales are pending, one at $1,125,000 on Mount Adams Loop in West Powell Butte Estates, and the other at $1,445,000 in Powell Butte. Neither of the pending sales reduced their asking price before securing a contract. No transactions closed this week.

Deschutes County farm listings over $1 million are finally showing signs of life, increasing by three to 14. No sales are pending, but one property closed for $1,375,000 on Deschutes Market Road. While this sale is categorized as a hobby farm, the property was marketed as a development parcel, with plans to subdivide into five parcels, with the sixth parcel designated for the existing home.

Crook County Farm listings are stable at 12 with no pending or closed transactions.

It is a busy time of year for the luxury market, with many sellers preparing to list for the peak season. With the most stable conditions in several years, I expect sales above $1 million to surpass last year's levels. The biggest factor will be how much buyer demand increases, something you will see reported here first. The majority of the truly unique luxury properties require longer marketing times, in some cases, a year or more. Of course, some properties will secure a buyer rapidly, and with enough buyer demand, that percentage will increase. However long it takes, positioning your property today ensures the most feedback and exposure during the busiest time of year. For buyers, now is the time to secure financing so they are ready when the perfect property comes along. I work with the best lenders in the business, so reach out if you need a contact to get ready for the busy season ahead.  

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After the latest storm dumped some much-needed snow in the mountains, the forecast for the next ten days shows highs in the 50s and sunshine. In addition to the expected nice weather, the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage is 5.99%, matching the lows of a few weeks ago, and the lowest in three years. Real Estate activity has already been picking up, and that trend will continue.

This morning in Deschutes County, the inventory is flat from last week at 828. Part of the reason we didn't see supply growth this week is due to a robust 72 pending transactions averaging $1,060,554, with just 31 price changes before securing a contract. As long as buyer demand keeps pace with new supply, expect prices to remain firm with fewer price reductions. Fifty-nine transactions closed this week, up 6 from the prior week, with the average sale at $779,495 and 27 price reductions before securing a contract. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 95.2%.

Crook County experienced its second consecutive week of inventory growth, up by eight to 161 single-family listings. Seven sales are pending, up by 3 from last week, averaging $438,000, with only 2 reducing the asking price before securing a contract. Three transactions closed this week, averaging $513,466, with just one reducing the price before securing a buyer. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 94.3%.

Jefferson County supply dipped by two this week, now at 110. Another robust week of pending sales is the culprit, with eight properties under contract, down one from last week. The average pending sale price was $455,956, and 6 of those listings reduced the asking price by an average of 7.52% before securing a contract. Five transactions closed this week, compared to none last week, at an average of $433,789, with three reducing the asking price before securing a buyer. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 95.63%.

In 2025, the supply of actively listed homes increased significantly from the past few years. While inventory this year is up marginally, lower interest rates and strong buyer demand have combined to mop up new listings quickly. While this dynamic produces more sales and keeps prices firm, for buyers, it can feel like there is less supply. At the extreme, multiple offers become more prevalent, and buyers need to move quickly on suitable properties. It will still take several more weeks for the season to reach full speed, but all indications point to a busy 2026. I strongly encourage buyers to begin working with a lender early so they are ready to make an offer when the right property comes along. For sellers, correct pricing is still important, but I expect fewer price reductions and more offers closer to the list price.

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I started writing my weekly market reports to fill in the information gap I noticed in the typical real estate marketing available to the general public. My reports began nearly 7 years ago, covering all price points across Deschutes, Crook, and Jefferson Counties, and I have weekly data preserved in a spreadsheet since April 2022. After years of weekly data gathering and writing, and in working with many buyers and sellers focused on the higher price points, it became clear that a second report dedicated to the luxury Central Oregon market was necessary. In March, the weekly data I have saved for the luxury market tranches will go back a full year, with new data added each week.

My goal of providing no-spin data straight from the MLS to educate my clients hasn't changed. Still, the knowledge I have gained and my ability to see exactly where we are in seasonal cycles and longer-term trends have been invaluable. As I approach the seven-year milestone (June 12) for my main report and the one-year milestone for the Luxury Report, I wanted to share the insight into how these reports help you and make me a better agent on your behalf. I truly appreciate every one of you who tunes in and reaches out with questions, comments, and help when you need it!

This morning in Deschutes County, listings between $1 million and $1,999,999 are up by seven to 211. Twelve sales are pending, with only three reducing the asking price before securing a contract. With spring activity building, the number of price reductions is decreasing, which is a seasonal trend, partially fueled by lower mortgage interest rates. Eleven transactions closed this week, up from 10 last week. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 93.52%.

Deschutes County listings between $2 million and $2,999,999 are up by two, now at 55. Two sales are pending, one at $2,695,000 in Tetherow and the other at $2,895,000 in Rimrock West above the Big Deschutes River. The pending sales reduced their asking prices before securing a contract by 3.34% and 3.58%, respectively. Two transactions closed this week at $2,325,000 in Broken Top and $2,750,000 in Caldera Springs. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 95.69%.

Deschutes County listings over $3 million increased by one to 28, with no pending or closed transactions.

In the Crook County luxury market over $1 million, listings decreased by two, now at 34. Two sales are pending; one at $1,099,999 in Brasada Ranch, and the other at $1,245,000 in Powell Butte. The Powell Butte listing reduced the list price 3.86% before securing a contract. There were no closed transactions this week.

Deschutes County farm listings over $1 million are steady at 11, with no pending or closed transactions. Crook County farm listings over $1 million are steady at 12 with no pending or closed transactions.

As spring approaches, early indications point to an incrementally busier year than 2025, which was better than 2024. You may recall that 2022 was the peak for Central Oregon real estate, with mortgage interest rates spiking in the second half of that year as the Federal Reserve fought "transitory" inflation. Interest-rate shock slowed activity, and in 2023, across all price points in Deschutes County, there were 3,161 single-family home sales, compared to 4,128 in 2022.

In Deschutes County, sales over $1 million were 858 in 2022, 636 in 2023, 751 in 2024, and 853 in 2025. In 2026, I expect total single-family sales to exceed 4,000 for the first time since 2022, and sales over $1 million to also exceed 2022 levels. While our market has been flat since 2022, the stability amid economic conditions is remarkable. Central Oregon housing, in particular the luxury market, is stable and healthy.  

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Your Bend Real Estate Agent is here to help

Reed Melton serves Bend and surrounding areas

Whether you are searching in Bend or any of the close by areas, I want to help you find the perfect property. Even if you are in the beginning stages of your search, I always like to be a resource, no pressure ever.

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Several factors have combined recently, indicating that 2026 will be the biggest year in Central Oregon housing since interest rates spiked in the second half of 2023. First, the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage is 6.05% this morning, approaching the three-year low, and continuing the downward trend. Second, supply is steadily increasing, with all three Central Oregon counties reporting significant year-over-year increases. Anyone who engaged the housing market from 2020 to 2023 knows that severely constrained supply during that period made finding the right property challenging. More supply last year created more opportunities and, in turn, more sales. If buyer demand continues (it will), all indications point to more than 4,000 single-family sales in Deschutes County in 2026.

This morning in Deschutes County, there are 50 more listings than last week, bringing the total to 828. This week in 2025, there were 769 listings. Sixty-six sales are pending, up seven from last week. Only 26 of the pending sales reduced the asking price before securing a contract. Fifty-three transactions closed this week, with a sold-to-original-list-price ratio of 94.3%.

Crook County reports six additional listings this week, bringing the total to 153. This week in 2025, there were 144 listings. Four sales are pending this week, down five from last week. Only one of the pending sales reduced the asking price before securing a contract. Five transactions closed this week, up by two from last week. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 93.93%.

Jefferson County's inventory is up by one to 112 listings, an increase of fourteen from this week in 2025. Nine sales are pending, up by four from last week, and tying the most active week of 2026 so far. Five of the pending sales reduced the asking price before securing a contract. There were no closed transactions this week.

As new listings hit the market, the price-reduction ratio and days on market decline, and a higher percentage of new listings sell quickly without needing to reduce the asking price. Lenders are reporting an uptick in refinances as rates become more favorable, and sellers are entering the market in anticipation of a more favorable landscape for buyers this summer. While we are experiencing a taste of winter-like weather this week, spring is right around the corner, and longer days will mitigate the impacts of the weather as each day passes. Last weekend, I went on a hike and saw a bumblebee; interpret that however you wish!

Want a tailored market analysis for your neighborhood or price range? Request a custom report or schedule a consult: reed@enjoybendlife.com 

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Your Bend Real Estate Agent is here to help

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Whether you are searching in Bend or any of the nearby areas, I want to help you find the perfect property. Even if you are in the beginning stages of your search, I always like to be a resource, no pressure ever.

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