My Weekly Central Oregon Real Estate Blog

After the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit a low this week of 6.34%, bond yields spiked yesterday, and mortgages closed out the day at 6.52%. Considering rates were 7.14% on July 1, 2024, and 6.91% on the 25th, the overall trend has helped buyers tremendously. The consensus is that the Fed will lower the overnight rate at the September meeting, but how much remains a question. I've read speculation that rates could come down 50 basis points, with further reductions in November and December. If rates drop a whole point by the end of the year, I expect the spring real estate market to look very different than the last couple of years. Rising inventory has created significantly more options for buyers, and if these trends continue, sales volume should increase. Lower rates help, but I do not see these trends softening prices. However, seasonal price reductions are in full effect, and inventory is up. Combined with lower mortgage rates, late summer is shaping up to be the best opportunity of the recent past for buyers in Central Oregon.

This morning, Deschutes County inventory reached 1322, an increase of twenty-seven from last week. The county's median list price is $799,900, with an average of $1,150,799. Seventy-one homes are pending sales at a median of $775k, with sixty-seven closed transactions at a median of $710k. The average pending and closed sales price was $930k and $935k, respectively. Active, pending, and sold properties show nearly half reflecting price decreases, with the average sold-to-original price ratio at 96.18%.

Crook County inventory decreased nine this week to 160. A robust fourteen pending sales at a median price of $485k and only 30 days listed reflect solid activity for the week. Five homes closed this week at a median price of $564,500, and only sixteen days on the market before securing a contract. Seventy-three active listings have reduced the asking price, seven of the fourteen pending sales, and only one of the closed transactions. 

In Jefferson County, inventory remains stable at 107, down one from last week. Activity was moderate for the week, with three pending sales at an average of $316k and three closed transactions at $470k. 44.8% of the active inventory has decreased the asking price, with two pending sales and one closed transaction reducing the asking price before securing a contract. 

With mortgage rates' recent decline, the second half of 2024 is the best buyer opportunity in the last few years. Inventory in Deschutes County is 52.8% higher than this week last year, and mortgage rates are down .58%. In addition, last year, mortgage rates climbed to a peak in late October of 7.91%, while this year, rates are trending downward and could be closer to 6% before long. If you are considering a purchase in Central Oregon but have been on the sideline, now is a great time to re-engage the market and look around. You might be surprised at the opportunities available.  

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Your Bend Real Estate Agent is here to help

Reed Melton serves Bend and surrounding areas

Whether you are searching in Bend or any of the close by areas, I want to help you find the perfect property. Even if you are in the beginning stages of your search, I always like to be a resource, no pressure ever.

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This morning, the national average for a fixed-rate 30-year conventional mortgage is 6.8%, the lowest rate by a slim margin in the last six months. The Fed meets today, but the chances of a rate pivot are slim. However, the talk of what might come in September could set the tone for mortgage markets over the next few weeks. Whether the Fed decreases the overnight rate in September is anyone's guess, but a pivot of more than 25 basis points is extremely unlikely. Even with a pivot, if the mortgage market's price in an anticipated decrease, actual mortgage interest rates won't see a significant change. Still, lower rates today will help buyers, with rates down .6% since late April.

Deschutes County inventory growth slowed again this week, with 1295 single-family listings, up eight from last week. The median price of active listings is 820k, with an average of $1,178,448, both increases from last week. This week, there were sixty-five pending sales at an average of 697k and eighty-two closed sales at an average of 945k. The average price reduction for closed sales was -3.75%. Pending sales were down slightly this week, but still in the volume range, we have seen for the last several weeks. Active listings in Deschutes County are at a median of fifty-six days.

Crook County inventory also slowed this week, at 169 single-family listings, up four from last week. The median days listed for the active inventory is fifty-four, with an average list price of 934k. This week, there were nine pending sales at an average of 515k, with five closed transactions at an average of 757k, consistent with the last several weeks. The average price reduction of the five closed homes this week was 2.06%.

In Jefferson County, inventory decreased by five to 108 due to a solid ten pending sales. The active listings in the county show a median days listed of 68 and an average price of 619k. The average price of the ten pending sales is 401k, with two closed transactions at 160k and $411,309. 

As the inventory of actively listed homes begins the seasonal decline, many properties that have lingered on the market will sell as summer winds down. Price reductions will prompt some sales, and slightly lower mortgage interest rates won't hurt either. Late summer and early fall are excellent times for buyers as prices decrease, and sellers are generally more willing to negotiate. For buyers knowledgeable about the market, attractive new listings are another great option, as the sellers at this time of year benefit from the season's sales to help them price appropriately. Supply may dwindle over the next several months, but the best deals of any year happen in the off-season. Start your research today so you can be ready to jump on the opportunities bound to come up in the coming months.  

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Your Bend Real Estate Agent is here to help

Reed Melton serves Bend and surrounding areas

Whether you are searching in Bend or any of the close by areas, I want to help you find the perfect property. Even if you are in the beginning stages of your search, I always like to be a resource, no pressure ever.

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This morning, the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage is 6.87%. While today's rate is down slightly, the trends have been moving sideways without any appreciable move from the upper and lower bounds of the last several months. Many analysts on Wall Street and in the real estate industry are betting on a pivot at the Fed meeting in September based on inflation data that has also mostly moved sideways. With the trend in home prices continuing to rise, I fail to see where a 25 basis point decrease in rates from the Fed changes home affordability much, but every little bit helps. Those convinced that rates will decrease appear to believe a pivot will begin a downward trend where rates bottom out somewhere in the fives for home mortgages. Candidly, I am not convinced of a rate pivot in September, and doubt a downward spiral in the mortgage markets is coming this year or next. Rates in the high five percent range might be possible sometime in 2025, but from my perspective, it is not probable. 

This week, the number of single-family homes for sale in Deschutes County increased by thirteen to 1287. During the same week last year, 861 homes were listed, an increase of nearly 50%. The market is chugging along with seventy-four pending sales in the previous week and fifty-seven closed transactions. The pending and sold volume is similar to last year, and simple math shows buyers with considerably more selection than in the recent past. The trends in the high-end of Deschutes County are remarkable, with seventeen sales year-to-date over $3M, with a median sale price of $3,750,000. Year-to-date 2023, nine sales were above $3M at a median of $3,200,000. That is an 88.89% increase in sales volume and a 17.2% increase in the median sale price. If you are interested in this segment of the Central Oregon market, I have access to a few off-market properties that are the best-of-the-best for our area.

Crook County's inventory increased by four this week to 165 single-family homes for sale. Activity remains consistent, with five pending sales and eleven closed weekly transactions. The pending median sale price was 640k, and the closed median sale price was 480k. None of the pending sales reduced the sale price, and the average reduction for the closed transactions was -2.61%. This week last year, there were 156 listings, six pending sales, and three closed transactions. Crook County activity remains steady, with sellers getting their price. 

Jefferson County inventory declined by three this week to 113, with the median active list price at $459,900. Four pending sales and eight closed transactions show steady activity for peak season. The median pending sale price for the week was $359,900, and the median closed price was $387,999. This week last year, there were only seventy-three listings, with three pending and three closed transactions, at a median of $355k and $327k, respectively.

From now through Labor Day, the pace of new listings will slow, and inventory will begin to taper toward winter. Total inventory should start to decrease slowly sometime in August. A rate decrease could spur more activity for the remainder of the selling season; however, I don't expect anything drastic if it is only 25 basis points. Price reductions have increased, but the median sale price is still up. Year-to-date, in 2023, for all price points of single-family homes in Deschutes County, there were 1740 sales at a median sale price of $645,000. So far, in 2024, there have been 1784 sales at a median of $696,250. That is a modest 2.5% increase in transaction volume and a not-so-modest 7.9% increase in the median sale price. The chances of a drop in the median sale price through the second half of 2024, especially if interest rates decline, is close to zero. 

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Your Bend Real Estate Agent is here to help

Reed Melton serves Bend and surrounding areas

Whether you are searching in Bend or any of the close by areas, I want to help you find the perfect property. Even if you are in the beginning stages of your search, I always like to be a resource, no pressure ever.

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The pace of new listings slowed last week, which is typical for the second half of the summer selling season. As a result, inventory growth slowed from the pace leading up to today. Wall Street and most of the lending industry expect a rate pivot from the Fed at the September meeting, with one lender I spoke to yesterday pinning the odds at 100%. I mentioned some reasons last week why the Fed might be considering a rate pivot outside of fighting inflation, and I still maintain those reasons are more of an issue than CPI. However, there is little doubt that a rate pivot will increase home prices. A 25 basis point increase may not alter the landscape immediately. Still, seeing how the stock market reacts when Powell speaks in his dovish dulcet tones, the speculation and release of pent-up buyer demand is unlikely to soften home prices. Rising energy and home costs will begin to enter the CPI, and I still expect a September rate pivot to be a long shot. 

Inventory in Deschutes County increased more pedestrianly this week, with thirteen more total listings than last week, for 1270. The active inventory median days listed is fifty-four. Ninety-two sales were placed under contract this week, a 30% jump from the holiday-impacted week prior. Seventy-three homes closed this week at a median of $677,450, an average of $933,437, and twenty-seven median days on the market before finding a buyer. 

Crook County homes for sale increased by one to 161, mirroring last week's statistics, with the median days listed at forty-seven. Ten pending sales were also identical to last week's numbers. Seven homes closed this week, up one from last week, and the days listed at thirty-two. With fewer expensive homes in the mix this week, the median sale price was 485k, averaging $695,928.  

Jefferson County inventory increased by four to 115, with the median days listed for active inventory at sixty-one. Three homes are pending sales this week at a median price of $389,900 and an average of $423,299. One sale was listed for 20 days and closed at $982,000.

We recently experienced a wave of price reductions, typical for sellers after the Fourth of July. Positioning for the remainder of the selling season is essential, and anyone with a home that has lingered on the market and is serious about finding a buyer in 2024 made moves to correct the asking price. Attractive homes priced correctly will always sell quickly, but only some properties have instant appeal. As we approach the end of the peak of the 2024 selling season and inventory begins to decline, more properties marketed since spring will start to sell. If the Fed rate pivot becomes a reality, it may juice the remainder of the year with increased activity. With so many in and around the real estate industry talking about rate pivots for nearly two years, the expectations are at an all-time high. Anyone who sat out the last period of higher rates will likely re-engage the market, driving prices higher. I haven't heard anyone use "soft landing" in a while. Still, the premise behind the terminology implies that the economy dodged a difficult recession, and everything is business as usual. If that is true, it is hard to imagine home prices in Central Oregon going anywhere but up. 

Update: EnjoyBendLife.com has a new look! I am always working to improve the user experience on my website, and I am incredibly proud of the latest iteration. The goal was simplicity without sacrificing any of the great information and tools you expect. Everything is so intuitive that I doubt you'll have any issues. But if you need any help, please let me know. Your feedback helps create the best real estate website in Central Oregon!

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Your Bend Real Estate Agent is here to help

Reed Melton serves Bend and surrounding areas

Whether you are searching in Bend or any of the close by areas, I want to help you find the perfect property. Even if you are in the beginning stages of your search, I always like to be a resource, no pressure ever.

Ask a QuestionI need to sell my homeCall Me

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As we move into the second half of the summer selling season, which runs until Labor Day, less than two months away, it's worth noting that listings in Central Oregon have increased from the meager levels of the past few years. This is good news for buyers, who now have more options. The national average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, which currently stands at 7.01%, remains remarkably consistent, if not down slightly. Buyers are experiencing stable, predictable rates, but higher than many would like. 

With the unemployment rate up, Jerome Powell intimated to Congress yesterday that a rate decrease may be on the horizon; however, more positive data showing a decline in inflation would be required ahead of any rate changes. At this point, the data is murky, and many factors, from war in the Middle East to rising energy costs, could derail the momentum Powell anticipates with inflation. The equity markets were ebullient, with the S&P 500 posting another record close yesterday based on Powell's comments to Congress. Some analysts are discussing a July pivot, which seems unlikely. That pushes the nearest rate change out to September, with mountains of data between now and then that could alter the landscape. Commercial real estate vacancy rates are approaching 20% nationally, and banks continue struggling. Recently, Goldman Sachs failed the Federal Reserve stress test, making any future rate pivot more about shoring up the cracks in our economy than fighting inflation. Jerome Powell has a Rubik's Cube of economic issues to solve, with the myopic directive of fighting inflation becoming watered down.

Inventory in Deschutes County has seen a significant increase, up forty-six from last week, now at 1257 single-family homes for sale. The holiday-shortened week shows pending and closed transactions down from recent trends. Sixty-four sales were placed under contract this week, with exactly half showing an average price reduction of -3.74% and an average list price of $862,440. Forty-two homes closed this week with an average decrease of -4.17% and an average price of $992,152.

Crook County homes for sale increased by one to 160, averaging $909,959. Ten pending sales averaged $829,360, with an average price reduction of -6.75%. Three of the ten pending sales were in Powell Butte, dragging the average number up considerably. Removing the Powell Butte pending sales shows an average price of $469,685. Six transactions closed this week at an average of $585,083 and an average reduction of -1.96%. The closed sale median days listed was eighteen. 

Jefferson County shows 111 homes for sale this morning, up six from last week. Four pending sales, an average of $312,000, and three closed transactions, at $442,316, rounded out the week. The median days listed for the pending sales was thirty, while the closed transactions were just two days. 

Price reductions are increasing throughout Central Oregon as sellers adjust to be positioned well for the second half of peak selling season. It is important to remember that many homes that linger on the market started with aggressively high prices, and the wave of reductions is more of a retreat to reality than a falling market. However, not every segment of our market performs the same. As mentioned last week, homes above $3M are outpacing the price increases of the rest of the market. Despite stable, high mortgage interest rates, prices are up. While the Fed may be talking (again) about a rate pivot, that is far from a bankable reality. Any rate increase this year is unlikely before September; even then, it will unlikely be more than 25 basis points. Mortgage rates will likely decrease if the Fed decreases the overnight rate, but there isn't a one-to-one relationship, and mortgage rates could lag or drop further than a Fed change. Either way, 25 basis points will not alter the trajectory for 2024.

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Your Bend Real Estate Agent is here to help

Reed Melton serves Bend and surrounding areas

Whether you are searching in Bend or any of the close by areas, I want to help you find the perfect property. Even if you are in the beginning stages of your search, I always like to be a resource, no pressure ever.

Ask a QuestionI need to sell my homeCall Me

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Inventory growth has slowed with the arrival of peak selling season. Still, all three counties of Central Oregon have more homes for sale this week than last. More listings will trickle in until August or September, when the seasonal decline in homes for sale tapers off towards winter. Typically, the Fourth of July is relatively slow for showings and activity, with many buyers and sellers on lakes and hiking trails or at concerts and barbequing with family and friends. The holiday-shortened work-week will reduce the sales and pending activity before everything picks up for one of the busiest stretches of the year, from July 4th to Labor Day. I wish all of my readers a safe and happy Fourth of July!

This morning, 1211 single-family homes are listed for sale in Deschutes County, an increase of eighteen from last week. Seventy-four pending sales, at an average price of $887,196, and ninety-two closed transactions, at an average price of $818,817, round out the week. The closed sales show median days on the market of twenty, with the median price change at -3.33% and the average at $2.24%. 

In Deschutes County, acreage property in the right location is in such high demand that prices over $5M are becoming commonplace. Deschutes County grew by over 6,000 residents last year; a solid percentage are very well-qualified buyers. While some great new listings are available, we have a limited amount of inventory in the high-end that would soften prices. There are only so many large acreage locations in cool areas, and those are selling and creating comps that set the floor very high. For illustration, the median sales price in 2023 YTD, compared to 2024 across all price points in Deschutes County, is up 8.7%. In YTD 2023, eight sales over $3M at a median of $3,341,120 compared with YTD 2024, at thirteen sales and a median of $3,732,625. That's an increase of 11.7% in price and 62.5% in volume. The high-end is outpacing the rest of the market for price appreciation. Central Oregon is on the map for high-end buyers, with the prices to prove it.

Crook County inventory this morning is up seventeen from last week, at 159 single-family homes for sale. Only one pending sale, at $499,900, was registered for the week, with seven closed transactions at a median of $714,000 and an average of $832,340. I expect next week's numbers to be down considerably, with all of the fantastic Fourth of July events in Crook County, before activity picks up for the second half of peak selling season. This weekend, boating and water skiing activities on the Prineville Reservoir will be at peak season levels.

Jefferson County's activity was solid last week, with six pending sales and eight closed transactions. Inventory in the county is up three to 105. The average pending sale price for the week was $481,283, with the closed transaction average at $420,062. Lake Billy Chinook, the reservoir at the confluence of the Metolius, Deschutes, and Crooked Rivers, will be filled with boaters and water sports enthusiasts for the holiday weekend, one of the busiest of the year. The second home community of 3 Rivers Recreation will be bustling!

I will be working through the holiday, so feel free to reach out if any real estate questions arise between all the fun activities you have planned. Scheduling showings can be tricky with so many families having weekend plans, but I am always happy to do my best to get you into any home you are interested in. Whenever you are ready, I am available to help you navigate any of your real estate needs. 

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Many lenders and real estate agents cling to mortgage interest trends as the only metric that matters when evaluating the market. While borrowing costs undoubtedly significantly impact affordability, inflation, real interest rates, and equity market trends all play a role in the decisions of many real estate buyers and sellers. In Central Oregon, selection, or lack thereof, has tremendously impacted the market over the last few years. Most buyers are more concerned with finding the right property than a minuscule rate adjustment. Judging by price growth trends with rates above 7%, if rates dropped 200 basis points, it is hard to imagine prices declining. Many buyers in 2022 had difficulty accepting prices, but in retrospect, that was still a great time to buy when you look at prices today. Every situation is unique, but waiting for a housing price drop in Central Oregon has not been an effective strategy.

There are thirty-seven more listings in Deschutes County this morning than last week, bringing the total to 1193. The days on the market for active listings remain stable at forty-eight, with the median list price at $840,750 and the average at $1,173,865. Nearly half (535) of the active market has reduced the asking price by an average of -5.11%. This week's numbers closely mirror last year's when the average actively listed property was $1,132,877, and the average price drop was -5.43%. Pending sales this week were down slightly at sixty-seven, most likely because of a shortened work week with a Federal Holiday. Fifty-five homes closed at a median of 17 days on the market and an average price of $863,456. Before securing a contract for the closed listings, the average price reduction was -2.39%, indicating desirable properties priced right. The closed sales totaled $47,490,102. 

Crook County inventory is flat, with an increase of one to 142 active listings, 52 median days on the market, and an average price of $968,737. Nine homes are pending, with only 15 days on the market and an average price of $455,188, and only two price changes, averaging -1.65%. Five homes closed at 23 days on the market before securing a contract and an average sale price of $524,799. Of the closed sales, three homes reduced the asking price before finding a buyer by an average of -1.99%. The Crook County housing market remains remarkably stable, with sellers getting their asking price in most cases. 

Jefferson County's active listings increased by three to 102, with a median listing time of fifty-three and an average list price of $611,683. One less work day didn't slow the activity in Jefferson County, with five pending sales at an average of $534,020 and eight closed sales at an average of $403,500. The median days listed were twenty-four and twenty-one, respectively.

Despite a large part of the real estate industry being hyper-focused on a rate pivot, I maintain that the chances of any change from the Federal Reserve are doubtful this year. The most recent almost imperceptible downtick in CPI was due to energy costs and housing, one of which isn't a part of the Fed's preferred measure, Core CPI. Both of those metrics will increase by the next CPI report. Nationwide, the median home sale price reached new highs at over $439,000, and Brent Crude Oil reached $85/barrel this morning. I want nothing more than to see real progress made on inflation, but the data doesn't show that as a long-term trend. Be cautious viewing graphs that zero in on a short timeline, making small changes look larger than they are. 

The national trends and economics are always on my radar, but my specialty lies in the Central Oregon housing market. I am working with several clients to find the finest homes in our market, and I have first-hand knowledge of the fantastic homes available in the best locations in the area. No matter your budget, I am here to support you and help you make the best decision for your needs. 

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Last week, I showed significant increases in median sale prices year over year in Central Oregon. Today, let's complete the picture by looking at inventory levels and days on the market. I write these reports primarily to bring hard data to the conversation about housing in our area, as I so often speak with buyers and sellers with an inaccurate view of the market. One misconception I hear repeated is that home prices are declining. Last week's data proved this is not the case, but price reductions in the active market are the most likely culprits that spur that narrative. When a home is listed at a high price and lingers without a sale, then reduces the price, it is easy to assume prices are dropping. However, the price was too high in many cases, and the reduced price is still higher than or equal to past sales. Knowing past median sales data is imperative to accurately viewing today's prices.

The logical assumption is that increased inventory drives prices down. While more homes for sale will eventually tip the scales towards lower prices, many real estate market dynamics prevent that from happening. One dynamic preventing a significant price drop is the short days many homes are listed before securing a contract. This year in Central Oregon, sales are slightly up from last year, but many more sellers are listing homes, bringing an increase in inventory. More selection has opened up opportunities for buyers conditioned to a supply-constrained market to find their perfect fit, and they are seizing the opportunity. The data shows pending and sold properties with very low days on the market. While some homes linger, others are snatched up very soon after listing, creating an uneven market that requires focused attention to track. The percentage of near-immediate sales keeps prices firm and rising in many cases.

This morning, there are 1156 single-family homes for sale in Deschutes County, seventy-eight more than last week. For reference, on June 21, 2023, there were 762 single-family listings in the county. The significant increase in supply has helped keep sales relatively strong but still falls short of past inventory levels. Pending sales in the county show median days of eleven, with twenty-two days for the sold properties. Downward price trends require inventory increases and an increase in days on the market, which is missing from today's data. Attractive, well-priced properties are moving quickly.

Crook County's home inventory shows 141 listings, up four from last week. Unlike Deschutes County, Crook County's inventory this week in June last year was up five from this morning, flat year over year. Coincidentally, the price appreciation in the county year to date was a very average 3.6%. Reading between the lines, the smaller pool of homes for sale has hindered buyers' options, making the Crook County market challenging to navigate. With a population of just under 27,000, Crook County's inventory would be hard-pressed to increase dramatically without significant outside pressure to drive the market. Considering the growth of Prineville and the county, the housing market has reached a relative balance, preventing any substantial dips or jumps. The good news for buyers and sellers in Crook County is the market is easier to read than some of the hotter locations in Central Oregon. Still, the median pending days listed this week was twenty-four, with sold sales at thirty-nine.

Jefferson County's inventory dropped one from last week, now at ninety-nine. This week last year, there were only seventy-one listings in the county. While the increase helps buyers with more selection, there are still very few options at any particular price point in Madras and the surrounding areas, with thirteen listings over $1M and twenty-six under $400k. Like Crook County, Jefferson County is still a supply-constrained market that buyers must consider when searching for properties. 

Inventory will continue to increase throughout Central Oregon through Labor Day or beyond, creating opportunities for buyers ready to respond. However, those opportunities will likely be more selection and the right mix of features, not lower prices. The likelihood of a rate pivot from the Fed is improbable for 2024. Even if there is a rate reduction before year-end, anything more than 25 basis points seems to be a long shot. If the economy is as strong as many claim, why would the Fed need to reduce interest rates? And if we are heading towards, or already in a recession as others claim, but inflation is still a problem, lowering rates would exasperate stagflationary trends. The Fed is in a rock and a hard place with monetary policy, no matter how you view today's economy. Considering home price appreciation today, lower mortgage interest rates will likely only fuel the fire. Our market is difficult for many to navigate, but when it comes to lower interest rates, you should be careful about what you wish for. 

My knowledge of the Central Oregon housing market exceeds what can be written in a short update or gleaned from a cursory reading of the national news. No matter where you are looking or what type of property you need, I am always available to help you sort through your options. 

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On October 10, 2023, the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 7.11%, nearly identical to this morning's rate of 7.16%. Except for a brief peak in late October to 7.91%, rates have remained within a few basis points of today's rate for several months, bringing stability to the housing market. A modest rise in inventory throughout Central Oregon has provided buyers with more selection for the first time in years, keeping activity consistent. Year-to-date, in 2023, there were 1,267 sales of single-family homes in Deschutes County compared to 1,333 this year.Granted, total sales in 2023 were down considerably from the robust activity of the early 2020s. However, there appears to be a floor for activity in Central Oregon as the area continues to see an influx of new residents. You may have noticed that the marketing from the real estate industry has all but abandoned the "rate pivot" messaging that dominated the second half of 2023 and early 2024. The likelihood of mortgage rates changing significantly or the Federal Reserve pivoting even 25 basis points this year is almost nonexistent. The year-to-date median sale price in Deschutes County in 2023 was $629,900; this year, it is $692,619, an increase of 9.9%. 

Inventory in Deschutes County increased again this week, now at 1078 single-family homes listed, up fifty-two from last week. The average list price in the county is $1,205,373, an increase of nearly 39k since the previous week. The active listings' median days on the market is forty-seven. As more new listings hit the market, prices have increased with solid buyer demand. There were seventy-six pending sales, a slight drop from last week but well within the typical range for the last couple of years. Fifty-two closed sales at thirteen median days on the market and an average sale price of $903,615 round out the weekly statistics. The average price reduction for the closed sales was -1.5%. Remember, the reduction reflects changes before a buyer and seller come to terms, not the final negotiated sale price.

Crook County homes for sale increased by seven to 137, with a median listing time of fifty-one days and an average price of $958,168. Ten sales are pending this week, with five of those transactions in Powell Butte. Five of the eleven closed transactions were in Powell Butte, with the average sale price at $766,772. 

Jefferson County inventory declined two this week, now at an even 100. Five pending and five closed transactions have average prices of $476,730 and $503,952, respectively. None of the closed transactions reduced the asking price before finding a buyer, but two sold for the full asking price, two sold for less than asking, and the last sold over the list price.

Contrary to popular belief and activity in some areas of the country, sale prices are up in Central Oregon. Check out these year-over-year increases:

Bend: 2023 YTD Sales 913, Median Price $675,000

          2024 YTD Sales 948, Median Price $735,000 +8.9%

Sisters: 2023 YTD Sales 77, Median Price $637,500

           2024 YTD Sales 69, Median Price $739,999 +16.08%

Redmond: 2023 YTD Sales 329, Median Price $464,520

           2024 YTD Sales 378, Median Price $529,808 +14.05%

Prineville: 2023 YTD Sales 168, Median Price $410,000

           2024 YTD Sales 164, Median Price $424,947 +3.6%

Finding the right property for your needs can be the biggest challenge in Central Oregon. Past performance does not indicate future gains, but waiting for prices to drop or interest rates to decline has yet to be an effective strategy for buyers. Additional inventory today gives buyers more selection than in the past few years, and buyers are paying what it takes to secure those properties. With no expected changes in mortgage interest rates this year, the second half of 2024 is shaping up to look very much like the first. 

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This week, the days the pending sales were on the market dropped in Deschutes and Crook Counties and increased slightly in Jefferson County. The increase in Jefferson County was modest and is still only 18 days, while Crook dropped thirty to 23, and Deschutes dropped nine to 16. Inventory growth across all three counties was modest, with clear signs buyers are engaged and snapping up attractive properties. More properties lingering from early spring listings are now pending, including my listing in SW Bend, which had tremendous traffic from day one. Mortgage rates this morning are 7.07% for the 30-year fixed-rate national average, on the last several months' lower end of the spectrum. While rates may be uncomfortably high from many perspectives, the stability in rates has spurred activity, not the actual rate. The message of rates staying where they are for a longer period seems to be sinking in, and I see less and less marketing pitching a "rate pivot" than earlier this year. As I mentioned last week, the real interest rate (rate paid minus inflation) is hardly restrictive. 

This morning, 1026 single-family homes are listed in Deschutes County, up eight from last week. The pending median sale price is 725k, a modest increase over last week, but the average pending price is 988k, the highest since July 2023.A higher average price shows more higher-priced homes pending, a trend I have noticed as I have researched the MLS. An influx of new listings at higher prices has created activity, with only sixteen days for the median pending sale days on the market and a solid 87 pending sales this week. Seventy-two sold homes at only ten days on the market further indicates how active the buyers are. The median price reduction for the sold homes before securing a contract was only 2.02%. If you see something you like, in most cases, you will need to act fast to make it yours.

Crook County inventory increased by six to 130, with nine pending sales at a median of 23 days listed. Nine homes are pending this week, with seven sold at median days of 23 and 31 respectively. The pending sale average price reduction was -2.68%, and the sold average was -1.09%. Sellers are getting their asking price in Crook County.

Nine more homes are listed in Jefferson County this week than last, for 102. This is the first time inventory has reached triple digits since I started tracking the data two years ago. Four pending sales at eighteen days listed and seven closed transactions at a median of 12 days show an active market. The pending median and average price change are a positive 3.12%. It is rare to see price increases in the median price change, but as always in Jefferson County, the data pool is too small to apply this metric broadly across the entire inventory. However, all four pending sales were under 400k. 

This morning, I am off to attend an inspection, which I do for every buyer I work with. Whether it is a home, septic, or well inspection, I want to be there if any issues arise to speak with the inspector first-hand and learn as much as possible about the problem. I've learned a lot from inspectors over the years, and I never regret being on-site to ensure I am doing everything I can for my clients. Whether compiling data to write these reports, researching the market for comparables to give a price opinion, or working with inspectors and title companies for a smooth transaction, I take pride in being knowledgeable and hands-on. And that service doesn't stop when the transaction closes! Whether you are taking on a renovation or have questions about who to contact in one of our local governments for more specific information, I am just a phone call away. 

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