My Weekly Central Oregon Real Estate Blog

All three counties in Central Oregon saw modest inventory growth this week, with Deschutes County surpassing the one-thousand mark for the first time in years. While growing inventory has created a considerably larger selection for buyers, it has yet to soften prices. However, many sellers have reconsidered the lofty asking prices of late and come down to reality. Price reductions are good for buyers, but reducing the price from extreme highs does not necessarily make a property's price appealing. It may indicate seller motivation, a good indicator for buyers to follow.

This morning, the Deschutes County inventory of single-family homes is 1018, up twenty from last week. Four hundred active listings have reduced the asking price, 39.3% of the market. In a typical healthy market, approximately one-third of active listings will reduce the price at any given moment, so an increase to nearly 40% is noteworthy. Activity remains consistent, with 79 pending sales this week and only 25 median days on the market. The percentage of price reductions of the pending sales sits at 29.1%, well within a healthy range. Forty-one sales for the week with fifteen reductions equates to 36.6%, also within a healthy range. The median days on the market for the properties sold was twenty-two. Reading between the lines, it is clear that more sellers have reduced the asking price before securing a contract. Remember, the price reduction metric shows price drops before securing a contract; the negotiated price revealed after the sale may be lower still. 

As of this writing, the national average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 7.28%, within the range of the last several months and showing signs of stability. Even a single rate pivot in 2024 from the Federal Reserve seems highly unlikely. Jerome Powell appears content to use his continued dovish narrative to ease financial conditions and leave rates untouched. In light of continued inflation, the real interest rate is closer to neutral than many would have you believe and far from the position necessary to create restrictive economic policy. Unless you are refinancing a bond on commercial real estate, but that is another topic.

Single-family homes in Crook County jumped thirteen to 124, with six pending and six sold properties this week. Four of the six sales reduced the asking price, with a median of fifty-three days listed. Buyers are scooping up these properties as sellers get more realistic about price. Three of the six closed transactions reduced the price with only seventeen median days on the market. Well-priced homes are still moving quickly. 

Jefferson County inventory increased by one to 93, with nine pending sales. Four of the pending sales reduced the asking price, and the median days on the market were only fourteen. None of the three sold properties took a price cut, with the median days listed at thirty-one. 

Analyzing the data and based on my experience in the field, today's market seems uneven regarding the impact on our growing inventory. Well-priced properties are moving fast, with many homes that did not sell last year coming to market and finding a buyer quickly this spring. We are building an increasing number of homes lingering on the market, with more price reductions across the active inventory. Desirable homes are still experiencing high demand, with fewer, more minor price changes. This fall could be an excellent opportunity for buyers as inventory builds and sellers adjust to market conditions. As always, in Central Oregon, finding the right property can be more challenging than finding the right price, and the low days on the market for pending and sold homes prove that buyers are not holding back when they find what they want. 

In addition to my work on my computer analyzing the market, I have also been in-person at properties all over Central Oregon. Please reach out if you have any questions about our housing dynamics. I have answers!

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Sales activity and closings across all three counties of Central Oregon are robust as we head into Memorial Day weekend, typically viewed as the start of peak-selling season for homes. The majority of homes sold will be between now and Labor Day, with new listings continuing through the bulk of summer. This year, inventory growth in Deschutes County has eclipsed the last few years, with the largest amount of actively listed single-family homes available since I started tracking in early 2022. 

Jefferson County shows 92 single-family listings this morning, one less than the peak since 2022. Six pending sales occurred this week at an average of $350,660, with an average price reduction of -5.1%. One full-price sale at $436k rounds out the week. While inventory in Jefferson may have increased to near-peak levels recently, today's number is only six more than last week, well below a volume that would soften prices significantly. If Jefferson County is on your radar, keep an eye on how these trends develop over the summer, as this fall could bring some opportunities that have been a long time coming. Half of the pending sales in Jefferson County this week were below 400k, with one below 200k.

In Crook County, inventory declined eight to 111, the only county in Central Oregon not to see growth last week. With seventeen pending sales and nine closed transactions, activity was robust. The pending and closed transactions included homes in Brasada Ranch near Powell Butte, which significantly skewed the numbers. The median price for pending sales was $440k, with the average at $660k, showing how the higher-priced homes impact the stats. The median sale price for the nine closed transactions was $388,750, while the average was $608,727. The properties near Powell Butte or Brasada Ranch sell for well above $1M, while all of the transactions in Prineville and Crook County outside those areas sold or were pending for under $1M. 

Deschutes County's inventory of single-family homes increased again this week to 998 listings. We have not had more than 1000 listings in years, and for buyers, the expanded number of options has helped tremendously. Prices remain firm, and mortgage rates stable, a dynamic that is not the easiest to navigate for many buyers. Eighty-one pending sales at a median of twenty days on the market show the continued strong buyer demand, with a median pending sale price of $650k and an average of $905k. The discrepancy between the median and average prices indicates the uptick in higher-priced homes going under contract. Sixty-two homes closed last week with a marketing time of only 23 days. The marketing time changes dramatically weekly, but anything below thirty would be considered a fast sale in our market. The days on the market are less meaningful than the volume of transactions. The median sale price for the closed transactions was $722k, while the average was $905k, closely aligned with the pending numbers this week. The median price reduction of the closed transactions was -4.55%, with an average of -4.1%.

Several factors are involved in pricing and price reductions. First and foremost is the accuracy of the list price and whether new inventory and sold properties support or detract from that price. Seller motivation is the second factor, followed by buyer demand. Attempting to use the median or average price reduction to paint a broad brush over all homes on the market will often set an unrealistic expectation for buyers. Still, these numbers can give you a good starting point for evaluating a potential sale price. 

At this time of year, sellers of well-priced homes with solid buyer interest are not likely to accept 10% below the list price. In some cases, that can be a starting point, but it is very likely a seller will counter. Arbitrarily, deciding a home is over-priced and coming in low has a good chance of turning a seller off and making negotiations more difficult. As always, these decisions are on a case-by-case basis. However, buyers must understand that a low offer a seller rejects leaves few options. If price is the biggest issue for a buyer, testing the market with low offers is an excellent way to uncover potential deals. But, if you love the home and are not interested in continuing to search, starting negotiations closer to the asking price is a better strategy. 

Feeling confident in pricing can be tricky, but market analysis is one of the strengths I bring to my clients. No matter where in Central Oregon you are focused, I have the knowledge and experience to help you evaluate any property you are considering. I am available whenever you have real estate questions.  

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Late last year, I predicted that the Federal Reserve would not pivot on interest rates in 2024, and yesterday's Producer Price Index came in hot, adding one more metric to the inflation equation. Even if today's CPI report comes in cooler than the last several months, PPI is a future predictor, and all signs point to increased inflation and the Fed overnight rate staying higher, longer. Any variability in mortgage interest rates will come from fluctuations in the economy and bond yields, which have recently decreased. This morning, the 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage national average is 7.11%, with the 10-year Treasury at 4.415%. Mortgage rates today are well within the operating range of the last few months, bringing no surprises and creating stability for the selling season. The significant changes are what shock buyers, with spikes slowing activity and decreases below the 7% threshold, creating more activity. 

Sellers continue to list, with Deschutes County seeing another big jump in inventory this week to 940 single-family listings, an increase of fifty-four from last week. Pending sales also jumped to eighty-six from sixty-eight last week, with only sixteen median days listed before securing a contract. The median pending sale price increased more than 200k to $822,500, with the weekly average at $954,133. Only nineteen homes reduced the list price before securing a contract. Fifty-seven homes closed at a median of 750k and an average of $946,749, with nineteen price reductions before finding a buyer. 

In Deschutes County, the average sold-to-original list price ratio for the week was 97.13%. This ratio indicates price drops before securing a contract and does not account for prices negotiated below the asking price. The nineteen price reductions of fifty-seven sold properties account for 33.3% of the sold inventory, a typical amount in a healthy market. Despite growing inventory, strong buyer demand has prevented sellers from needing to retreat significantly on price.

Crook County inventory dropped two, now at 119 single-family listings. Fifteen homes are pending this week, with six closed transactions. None of the six homes that closed this week took a price cut before securing a buyer, with three getting full-price, two taking offers below the list price by -5% and -2.5%, and the last accepting an offer 5% over the asking price. The limited inventory in Crook County and strong buyer demand keep prices firm. 

Jefferson County homes for sale increased by three to eighty-six, with four pending sales and five closed transactions. The pending sales were listed for a median of twenty-nine days and showed a median price of 587k, with only one price reduction. The sold homes in Jefferson County this week show a median sale price of 275k and an average of 270k, the first closing under 300k since late October 2023. Jefferson County might be a great option for those on a tighter budget.

Deschutes County inventory is the largest since August 17, 2022, with no signs of slowing. The increase in available homes has helped buyers tremendously, with significantly more options than last year. Sales this week were up two from this week in 2022. However, judging by the flood of listings, there is a strong chance more homes will linger through the summer, creating more inventory this fall. Buyers looking for opportunities that don't find what they need this summer may have more options this fall than in the last few years. If mortgage rates dip below 7%, I anticipate some of the better deals of the previous housing cycle. Figuring out pricing in today's market can be tricky, so reach out if you have questions about a property you are considering. I am always available to run a detailed analysis to help you make the best decision. There are limited comps in some cases, but with my deep knowledge of our market, I can help with pricing any property in Central Oregon. 

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As we approach peak season, the inventory of single-family homes in all three counties of Central Oregon increased this week. Deschutes County added 45 new listings, Crook County added 7, and Jefferson County's inventory grew by 3. With more options for buyers, pending sales are solid, and the market activity is palatable. While the Federal Reserve may have left rates untouched, reiterating the intention of holding rates higher for longer, Jerome Powell couldn't resist sneaking in some dovish tones in the form of decreased monthly bond sales from its balance sheet from $60B/month to $25B/month, a 58% reduction. The reduction of quantitative tightening from decreased bond roll-off is, in essence, quantitative easing, and Wall Street responded with increases in the stock market and bond yields dropping. This morning, the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 7.19%, with the 10-year Treasury at 4.489%. The defacto quantitative easing orchestrated by the Fed and the Treasury Department essentially waves the white flag on inflation. How much mortgage rates decline remains to be seen, but mortgage rates dipping below 7% will undoubtedly spur activity in the housing market.

This week, pending sales in Deschutes County were sixty-eight, with the median days on the market at eighteen. The median pending sale price was $664,500, and the average was 808k, decreasing from the previous week. Sold homes show a significant decrease at 52, compared to 103 last week, with thirteen median days on the market and a median sale price of $714,500, just $500 less than last week. The median price per square foot of closed sales was $364. While I track price per square foot weekly, I rarely refer to these numbers as the wide variety of homes sold each week changes the number dramatically from house to house. The price per square foot is considerably more meaningful for condos in the same complex, townhomes, or new-construction subdivisions. However, it still isn't my preferred method for evaluating properties. 

Eight pending sales in Crook County reflect a significant decline from the previous week's seventeen and median days on the market of 111. However, three of the eight pending sales were in the Powell Butte area and at higher price points, increasing the median pending sale price significantly from last week to 674k. Closed sales remained strong, with ten this week, and the median sale price was a significant increase over last week at 640k. 

Jefferson County's pending sales increased to eight this week from three last week, with only ten median days on the market and a median pending sale price of 385k. Five properties closed in the county this week, with a median price of 425k and 100 days on the market. The median price reduction for pending sales was -8.21% and -6.94% for the closed properties, but only two homes in each category reduced the price. Two of the five sales in Jefferson County accepted offers above the asking price. Trends are the most critical metric in smaller Jefferson County compared to median price changes because of the smaller data pool. This week, a sold property closed at 21.7% above the asking price, making the median price reduction of all sales a misleading number. 

The increased inventory gives buyers more options, and sales remain strong relative to lending costs. With the median sale price reduction in Deschutes County at a paltry 3.19% and in Crook County at 2.27%, sellers are getting very near the asking price. The low days on the market for sold properties indicate strong buyer demand. 

The most marketable properties hit the market in late spring, leading up to peak season, and knowledgeable buyers are jumping on those opportunities. If inventory continues to build, there is a chance for some great opportunities this fall for properties that missed a buyer over the summer. However, what happens with mortgage rates will have a significant impact. Most buyers in Central Oregon over the last few years will tell you the biggest challenge was finding the right property, not price. The influx of sellers today is creating many good options, and to date, mortgage rates have been operating in a relatively narrow margin consistent with the last several months. I expect continued strength in the Central Oregon housing market through summer. 

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Last year, low inventory suppressed sales, as buyers had so few homes to choose from. This year, however, is an entirely different scenario, with sellers flooding the market with willing buyers ready to go. More listings would theoretically temper prices, but attractive listings are moving quickly with so much pent-up buyer demand. The increase in homes for sale is helping buyers find what they are looking for, and the days listed are plummeting.

This morning, the inventory of single-family homes in Deschutes County experienced a notable surge, jumping from 53 to 841. This is the most significant weekly increase since 2024. Despite this influx of properties, pending sales remained robust, with seventy-one homes placed under contract this week. The days on the market for these properties fell to six, indicating a high demand. One hundred three properties closed, with the median days listed at sixteen. The median list price for active inventory is $824k, $1000 less than last week, while the pending median price is $709k, up 20k from last week. The closed median sale price this week is $715k, up 39k. The active, pending, and closed sales averages are $1,174,168, $837,579, and $857,240.

In Crook County, the inventory of single-family listings declined by six to 114, indicating a demand that surpasses supply. A robust seventeen pending sales occurred this week, with properties spending an average of thirty-one days on the market. Nine transactions closed this week. The median sales price for active, pending, and closed sales were $649k, $498k, and $491k, all increases from the previous week. The averages were $980k, $695k, and $842k, respectively, and are up from the last week. It's important to note that Crook County has a diverse inventory of homes, including those with large acreage and the desirable Brasada Ranch golf community. With the smaller pool of active and closed or pending transactions, it only takes a few higher-end sales to impact the numbers significantly.

The number of single-family homes for sale in Jefferson County remained stable at 80, with three pending sales and five closed transactions. The median days on the market for pending sales were only thirteen, with the closed transactions at twenty-eight. The pending list prices were $455k, $548k, and $625k; the median sold price was $599,500.

The recent economic data has all but eliminated the possibility of a Fed rate cut in 2024, with the narrative from Jerome Powell today likely more hawkish than recent Fed meetings. Dubbed the "Powell Pivot," Jerome Powell talked of tightening financial conditions back in November, doing the work of the Fed in helping to fight inflation. In a fit of irrational exuberance, Wall Street interpreted the "Powell Pivot" to mean up to seven rate cuts in 2024, starting in March, and financial conditions immediately eased through year-end 2023 and the first quarter of 2024. Even the most bullish analysts today call for no more than one rate drop this year, with many more increasing the odds of an increase. The likely scenario is the Fed holding the overnight rate right where it is. For 30-year mortgages, watch the 10-year Treasury for clues about where rates are heading. This morning, the 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage national average is 7.51%, with the 10-year Treasury at 4.665%. As the 10-year Treasury yield increases, so do mortgage interest rates. 

This week's robust activity in Central Oregon illustrates that buyers have accepted higher rates and are responding to increased selection from increased availability. While a significant spike in rates or a pivot to lower rates would likely change the current momentum, stability in the mortgage market, with rates staying higher for longer, is more likely. You can rest assured that Wall Street will be looking for any glimmer of hope or a dovish tone from the Fed today. Jerome Powell has been particularly reticent to speak hawkishly; however, with inflation rising, unemployment low, and GDP flatlining, the Fed is between a rock and a hard place. As I have said, since the end of 2023, I do not expect a rate pivot this year, so strategize your home buying and selling accordingly!

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Inventory growth in Central Oregon continues, and I will compare some national numbers to what is happening locally for perspective. Mike Simonsen, the CEO of Altos Research, posts a weekly video about national market trends, reporting 31% more inventory nationally this week than in 2023. Nationwide, more sellers are coming to market than at any point in 2023, even though inventory is still relatively low. The 30-year fixed-rate national average for a conventional mortgage is 7.38% this morning, up from 6.58% this week last year. Pending sales nationwide reached an all-time high for the median price this week. Altos Research produces the Market Trend Reports I share on my website, where all ten Central Oregon zip codes are listed.

Deschutes County inventory was heavily constrained last year, and many sellers who sat out 2023 are listing their homes this spring. This week in 2023, there were 523 single-family listings in Deschutes County, while this morning, there were 788, an increase of 50.67%. The daily flow of new listing announcements in the Realtor backchannels is more fire hose than garden hose, and I also have a new Southwest Bend listing to announce next week. 

This week shows 73 pending sales in Deschutes County, down only two from last year. The median price was 689k, and the average was 927k. This week's pending sales in 2023 had a median price of 735k and an average of 837k. Fifty-four homes sold this week at a median of 676k and an average of 857k. Last year, sales were up slightly at sixty-five, but the prices were down, with a median of 602k and an average of 720k.  

While market activity is robust by recent measures, it is not equal across all segments. Attractive, well-priced properties are moving quickly in Deschutes County, with the median pending days at fourteen and the sold days at sixteen. The median days on the market for active inventory is forty. I have heard some agents concerned about listings languishing despite price drops and robust marketing, most likely attributed to higher borrowing costs. There is little doubt that the housing market today is challenging from many perspectives. 

Crook County inventory finally reached 120 listings this week, with eleven pending sales and six closed transactions. This week last year, there were 107 active listings, twelve sales, and three closings, so the county reflects similar activity to 2023. The median days on the market for pending sales was twenty-eight, with closed sales at fourteen.

Jefferson County inventory increased to 80, with one pending sale and six closed transactions. The pending sale was an investor opportunity for $160,000 on the market for only three days. The six closed transactions, with a median price of $412k, were listed for a median of ninety-four days. 

Single-family home sales in Deschutes County year-to-date are 847, a 6.1% increase from the year-to-date 2023 sales of 798. However, the median sale price of 680k is a 10.4% increase from last year's 616k, and the average price of 827k is a 9.7% increase from 2023's 754k. 

On the high-end, sales this year-to-date above $3M increased two to Six, while the median sale price is down slightly at $3,250,00 from $3,316,120. The average sale above the $3M mark is up slightly at $3,290,833, an increase of $5,001. This morning, twenty-nine homes above $3M are available, with the median at $4,100,000 and the average at $4,961,517. Sales of available inventory in the higher price points could skew 2024 sales in this segment up significantly, or sellers need to reduce the asking price. However, with five pending sales in the last month at this price point at a median list price of $3,850,000 and an average of $3,685,800, buyers so far are stepping up for these unique opportunities. After touring many higher-end homes recently, there is little question that the available inventory above $4M is in a class of its own. 

No matter your budget, I put the time into learning all segments of the Central Oregon housing market, and I look forward to sharing my knowledge to help you reach your goals. Contact me with any questions you have about our challenging market. 

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After an (un)expected rise in inflation with last week's Consumer Price Index Report, the 10-year Treasury closed trading yesterday at 4.654%. The 10-year Treasury closely correlates to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, and the rise in bond yields also increased mortgage rates, with the 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage national average at 7.5% this morning. While the impact on housing is yet to be determined, some signs are emerging in this morning's data. The shift in the market is significant for the seller's out there.

The inventory of single-family homes in Deschutes County increased to 746, up twenty-seven from last week. The pace of new listings and "coming soon" announcements has been brisk in the Realtor back channels. Median list price in the county is 807k, with 254 price reductions, well within a typical range for a healthy market. Sixty-six pending sales at a median price of 660k, with twenty-two price reductions at an average of -4.3%, show typical ranges of price reductions, but sales volume has decreased from a couple of weeks ago by a small margin. Sixty-five closed transactions at a median price of 715k and only twelve days on the market reflect the strong buyer demand thirty to forty-five days ago. The average price reduction was -6.74% for closed sales. The average sold-to-original list price percentage for the week was 98.1%, and the average sold price per square foot was $406.

Correct pricing is paramount in today's market, especially as mortgage rates climb. Price reductions will undoubtedly attract buyers if they are large enough, but getting the price right immediately and finding a willing buyer is a better strategy. It can be challenging to nail the price immediately, especially for unique properties and locations. Sometimes, an adjustment is required to be well-positioned for the coming peak selling season.

The inventory level in Crook County remained stable at 112, with the median list price at 644k. Thirteen homes are pending this week at only fourteen days on the market and a median price of 440k. The average price reduction for these pending sales was -4.22%. Three homes closed this week at an average of 382k, with only one price reduction. In smaller Crook County, there is more variation from week to week, so don't read too much into the lower sales number. This week, the sold-to-original list price ratio in Crook County was 92.62%, and the average sold price per square foot was $237.

Last week, I had the opportunity to evaluate several commercial and investment properties in Crook County, and some very interesting properties are available. Whether you are looking for high-traffic exposure in the heart of downtown Prineville or a sizeable industrial parcel near the airport, investors looking into Central Oregon would be hard-pressed to find more upside potential than Prineville and Crook County. Many turn-key investments in Prineville show cap rates over 6%, almost unheard of in Deschutes County, where higher property prices drag cap rates in many cases below 4%. Prineville could be a fantastic opportunity for the right business and investor.

Jefferson County inventory decreased by five to seventy-four this week, with the median list price at $437,750. Seven pending sales were on the market for a median of thirty-three days and a median price of 436k. Three homes sold at 479k, 435k, and 400k, and a sold-to-original list price ratio of 91.29%. The average sold price per square foot was $259.

While regular readers of my reports may be more educated than most, every buyer and seller in our technologically advanced era has access to more data than ever. Most buyers are knowledgeable about the neighborhoods and geographic areas they are interested in and recognize well-priced properties. Higher mortgage rates may temper buyer demand, but active, well-qualified buyers are still engaged in finding the right property for them. I encourage sellers to consider the entire market when pricing their homes and regularly work with clients to provide comprehensive market analysis to help them make good decisions. Different price points require a different approach, and no two homes are the same. Contact me if you need anything related to Central Oregon real estate!

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The last few years have been tough for buyers, with so few homes listed for sale, but that trend is loosening up. In mid-April 2022, there were 333 single-family homes listed in Deschutes County. This week last year, 525 single-family homes were available, and this morning shows 719 listings, an increase year-over-year of 36.95%. However, pent-up demand has the market moving quickly, with seventeen days on the market for the sixty-eight pending sales this week and twenty days for the forty-five closed transactions. Several desirable properties were placed under contract this week in single-digit days on the market. 

The median price reduction of -2.3% for closed sales in Deschutes County continues the trend of sellers getting very close to the asking price. The sale price to the original list price percentage was 98.29% for the week. While the median sale price reflects a reduction from the list price, scrolling through the sales shows seventeen of the forty-five closed sales going for more than the list price. Nineteen of the forty-five sales were on the market for a single-digit number of days. 

This morning, the 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage national average is 7.06%, with the 10-year Treasury at 4.343%. With March CPI coming in at a hotter-than-expected +0.4% month-over-month and 3.5% year-over-year, a June rate pivot from the Fed is increasingly unlikely. Regular readers of my report will recall that I have cautioned against expecting any rate cuts in 2024, and many analysts have backed down from three projected cuts to two recently. At the beginning of the year, many analysts predicted seven rate cuts at 25 basis points each, or 1.75%. With the six-month Federal deficit at $1.1T, oil prices rising, and national and global supply chain disruptions, inflation is rising no matter how optimisticly Wall Street tries to paint the picture. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon wrote candidly this week about his optimism regarding the US economy while cautioning against the risks of the myriad geopolitical events. For housing, this means rates will remain higher, longer, but buyers seem to have adjusted to that reality and are undeterred. 

Single-family homes for sale in Crook County increased to 112, down nine from last year's week. Eight pending single-family homes sold at thirty-nine days on the market. Six properties closed at twenty-nine days on the market and a median sale price of $454,945 to round out the week's activity. Pending and closed transactions in Brasada Ranch and Powell Butte pulled up the median sale price from the 427k sold price of the five Prineville properties closed this week. 

Jefferson County inventory increased by five to seventy-nine single-family homes listed at a median of $445k and an average of $572,784. The six pending sales were on the market for forty days with a median price of $289,000—three homes sold at a median of $450k and an average of $489k. 

With stable mortgage rates, rising inventory, and peak selling season just around the corner, I expect to see strong buyer demand continue. Buyers are stepping up to snag new listings without hesitation, and attractive properties are moving quickly. Today's firmly established trends have been taking shape for several weeks. Increased inventory in our current environment means increased sales. The market might not be moving as dizzyingly fast as the peak pandemic activity levels, but it isn't far off. Growth in Central Oregon continues, with a seemingly endless stream of buyers. When you see a home that fits your needs, waiting likely means missing out. 

I create individual market analyses for my clients almost daily, so please don't hesitate to reach out if you need my expert opinion on any home you are considering. From La Pine to Madras, Bend to Prineville, and all points in between, I am intimately familiar with Central Oregon real estate and here to help you!

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Reviewing the numbers from the last week in Central Oregon, it is immediately apparent that sales are increasing, and homes are selling for closer to the asking price than at any time over the last several months. The national average for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage is 7.06%, so better rates are not the contributing factor. Pent-up buyer demand is the culprit.

In Crook County, available homes dropped three to 111, with ten pending sales and nine closed transactions. Pending sales listed for a median of only fourteen days and 392k. Only three of the ten transactions reduced the asking price; the median reduction was -0.79%, and the average was -1.94%. The closed transactions also had three price reductions; the median closed price was 465k, averaging 574k. 

Inventory in Jefferson County increased from one to 75, with three pending sales and eight closed transactions. Pending days on the market were a more reasonable thirty-four and ninety-six for closed transactions. The median price of active listings is $439,500, $433,000 for pending sales, and $496,221 for closed transactions this week. Active listings reflect a median price reduction of 4.27%, with pending sales at -6.94% and closed transactions at -3.24%.  

While Crook and Jefferson counties are impacted by extremely low inventory, Deschutes County homes for sale continue to grow at a healthy pace. There were 692 listings this morning, up thirty-eight from last week. This week, last year, there were only 542 active listings of single-family homes in Deschutes County. The median numbers for active listings are forty days on the market, 795k list price, and -3.77% for price reductions, just under 34% of the market. One-third of the active listings showing a price cut is a typical number in a strong market, with 50% indicating conditions beginning to favor buyers. Eighty-two homes are in pending status this week, with only fourteen days listed, a median price of $691,266, and an average of $922,175. Less than 27% of the pending sales reduced the asking price by a median of -4.28%. Forty-five homes closed at a median of only ten days on the market, a median of $735,000, with fourteen reducing the price by a median of -5.04%. The average list price of single-family homes in Deschutes County is $1,165,045, for pending sales $922,175, and sold homes $948,488.

Many agents I am speaking with about listings have informed me of increased activity. The reduced days on the market for pending and closed transactions indicate strong buyer demand. Reading between the lines, many buyers have adjusted to rates near 7% and are taking advantage of more selection in the market. If rates were to spike, it might slow buyer demand, but there is no indication that rates are increasing appreciably. Conversely, a drop in rates would make what is becoming a hot market even hotter. However, with inflation numbers edging up, a June decrease in the overnight rate from the Fed is increasingly unlikely. Mortgage rates should remain stable throughout the summer selling season. Some Fed members still telegraph rate drops this year, a narrative based on improving inflation numbers which have not been cooperating. 

Timing is the key to the Central Oregon housing market for buyers looking for specific properties. There is no guarantee that several great options will be available during the selling season, and with the market heating up, several buyers are circling the same property in most cases. In many neighborhoods throughout our region, I have watched all the options considered by some buyers go under contract in the last week, resetting those buyers' search to zero. New properties come up frequently at this time of year, and every buyer needs to move in a way that fits their needs. However, there are only four short months left in 2024 to put a home under contract to close before Labor Day. By every measure, except mortgage rates, this year is beginning to feel like the craziest part of the pandemic surge in buyer demand.  

Sellers undoubtedly face solid buyer demand, but correct pricing is still imperative. Today, buyers have all the tools available to be knowledgeable about our market and typically know all the sales, pending, and active inventory for a particular neighborhood. Speaking of sellers, stay tuned for a great listing I have coming soon in SW Bend!

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I track several statistics weekly in the Central Oregon MLS and keep them in a spreadsheet for future reference. I don't share two of those statistics regularly because they are of little value weekly, but they help establish trends, such as the sold-to-list ratio and the sold-to-original-list ratio. The sold-to percentages show how much sellers adjust the asking price before accepting an offer. When homes are in pending sale status, the price shown will be the list price when the seller accepts the offer. After closing, I can see the negotiated price, which may be higher or lower than the list price. Median and average price change percentages are another indication of adjustments made by sellers before an offer is accepted. In a flat or slowing market, these percentages increase as sellers start higher than the market will bear and need to adjust downward to attract buyers. In many cases, the negotiated price will also be lower than the list price, creating a compounding reduction from a seller's original expectations of a sale price. 

As prices have increased, especially in the face of higher mortgage interest rates, I am having more conversations with buyers about asking prices that feel very high. Sellers all have reasons (sometimes emotional) why their home is worth a particular price, but buyers also have a list of reasons why they believe a house is overpriced. In a competitive market with low inventory, many buyers expect more of a reduction than is realistic. With enough time lingering on the market, some sellers eventually get the hint and lower the price. In other situations, competing homes sell, and the homes left begin to look better. Also, only some potential buyers are engaged in the market simultaneously, and newly engaged buyers sometimes jump on properties other buyers decide to pass on. Ultimately, a home will sell for what a willing, capable buyer and seller agree to, and many sellers are unwilling to budge on price. Even properties priced aggressively sometimes find willing buyers if they are unique and stand out. When you see the statistics this week, you'll understand why I took the time to explain these metrics.

This morning, there are 654 single-family homes for sale in Deschutes County, 31 more than last week. The median list price is $764,900, and the average is $1,129,801, consistent with prices since late last year. The median price change was -3.74%, and the average was -4.59%. I started tracking the median price change percentages two years ago, and the first time the number dropped below 4% occurred in January 2024. A healthy seventy-one homes were placed under contract this week with a median of thirteen days listed, 735k, and an average of 913k. The median price change of pending sales was -2.86%, with the average considerably higher at -6.05%. That means more than half the pending sales this week had price reductions LESS THAN -2.86%. Forty-four homes sold this week in Deschutes County at a median of twenty-one days on the market, 756k median, and an average price of 949k. The median price reduction was -2.92%, and the average was -1.51%. As a point of reference, on the week ending January 25, 2023, the median price reduction for sold homes in Deschutes County was -11.14%. Prices are higher, and sellers are getting closer to their asking price than ever in the "pandemic era" housing market. 

One hundred fourteen homes are listed in Crook County this morning, up three from last week, at a median price of 599k and an average of 919k. The median price reduction is -3.85%, and the average reduction is -6.24%—eight homes are pending sales in Crook County at a median of 701k and an average of 829k. Sellers were more amenable to price drops, with the median reduction at -8% and the average at -9.51%. Of the eight pending sales, the median days listed were only fifteen. Six homes closed at a median of 400k and an average of 394k. The median days on the market for the sold properties were forty-six, and the median and average price reductions were 3.67% and 3.69%. 

Jefferson County's inventory dropped one this week to seventy-four, with a median of 438k and an average of 547k. The median and average price reduction for active listings is -4.39% and -4.5%. Four homes were pending sales, with a median of 374k, an average of 459k, and only twenty-eight days on the market. The median and average price reduction for the pending sales was -1.3%. Five homes sold at a median of 450k and an average of 458k, with 120 median days listed. The median and average reduction for closed sales was -6.34%. 

The smaller Crook and Jefferson County data pool makes the trends more subject to large swings. Properly evaluating prices and trends in the less populated parts of Central Oregon requires local knowledge and precise evaluation of specific properties, both of which I have and use daily. 

Despite rising inflation, transportation issues in the Panama and Suez Canal, Baltimore Harbor, and increasing fuel prices, the Fed is telegraphing a likely rate decrease at the June meeting. With banks under increasing pressure from high-interest rates, the reverse repo market drawing down, and a book of bonds at low rates refinanced against higher rates, Jerome Powell is in a rock and a hard place. While a likely 25 basis point rate pivot in June won't change the lending landscape in housing much, it might slow bank failures, even if a pivot in light of current trends will be the equivalent of waiving a white flag against rising inflation. Powell has leaned on his favorite word to describe hotter-than-expected January and February inflation: transitory. There have even been some murmurings of raising target inflation to 3%, but what is a casual 50% increase in the target amongst friends?

What does it all mean? Nobody knows in the long-term, other than rapidly debasing our currency. To say we are in uncharted territory would be an understatement. In the short-term, home sales have increased over the last year, prices are firm, and sellers are getting closer to the asking price than at any time in recent memory. Earlier this year, I predicted mortgage interest rates to be 6.675% in September, and with today's 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage averaging 6.91%, I may have been correct. To be clear, I was being cheeky with my prediction, and guessing future mortgage rates is a fool's game. However, in this case, it may be prescient. The game is relatively easy for sellers: set your price and wait for feedback. For buyers, especially with unique properties that fit your needs, offering very close to the asking price may be necessary to secure a sale. While coming in far below the asking price may be tempting, sellers are balking at low offers and holding firm this year. Waiting for a seller to lower the price keeps the door open for other buyers, and those buyers have been stepping up. 

I regularly show and tour homes and drive the neighborhoods around Central Oregon. If you have questions about a specific community, price, or a particular feature, do not hesitate to contact me for answers. 

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