My Weekly Central Oregon Real Estate Blog

The last several days in Central Oregon have been gorgeous, with sunshine and temperatures approaching or surpassing 70 degrees. Weather at this time of year can cover the gamut, and I do not expect conditions to remain this mild, as it is only March. However, the nice weather may have helped a solid week of pending sales. Mortgage rates have remained steady at 7.11% for the national average on 30-year fixed-rate loans, a factor that doesn't seem to be deterring buyers. 

As expected at this time of year and with such beautiful weather, new listings increased in Deschutes County to 623, up twenty-eight from last week. Pending sales for the week were seventy-two, the highest since late September, and up substantially over the previous few months. Fifty-two sales were recorded last week at a median of $689,500 and an average of 840k. The median days on the market for closed transactions were twenty-three, but looking through the sales reveals many properties with marketing times exceeding 100 days. Winter sales are typically slow, but spring activity has buyers scrutinizing every option and taking advantage of recent price reductions or motivated sellers. Buyers waiting for conditions to shift are dealing with constant changes in available inventory and, in some cases, are disappointed to see homes they have been watching go under contract. As always, finding the right property is the challenge in Central Oregon. 

Crook County inventory declined three this week to 111, with the median list price at 640k and the average at 941k. Twelve homes are pending, with an average list price of 585k and only fourteen days on the market. Seven sales averaging just under 500k round out the week. As long as inventory remains low in Crook County, I expect prices to remain stable. 

Jefferson County available listings have remained stable, with seventy-five homes for sale this morning, down one from last week. Twelve pending transactions at an average list price of 446k and five sold homes at an average of 408k reveal solid activity for the week. The median days on the market for pending sales were 116, with 124 days for sold homes. The median days for active listings is seventy-two, at an average of 534k and a median of 436k. Like Deschutes and Crook Counties, Jefferson County listings that have lingered through the winter are getting snapped up by buyers eager to secure their place in Central Oregon.

More buyers recognize that mortgage rates are unlikely to change drastically soon and are tired of waiting on the sidelines. With inflation steadily increasing month-over-month, a rate cut in the late April Fed meeting seems increasingly unlikely. The base effect of monthly increases is catching up and showing in year-over-year increases in inflation, forcing the "sun is always shining" crowd to report on how today's number is less than peak inflation reported at 9%. With many analysts comparing today's trends to those of 1973 and 1974, further increases in inflation seem more likely than not. If the Fed passes on rate cuts in late April, the next opportunity would be at the June meeting. Unless the Fed makes a political move (gasp!) on rates, I expect mortgages to stay close to today's levels. The good news is that higher rates help increase inventory and tamp down rampant price increases, even in our low-inventory environment, which is good news for buyers. 

No matter the neighborhood or price point you are targeting, I am always available to run a detailed analysis of past sales, trends, and opinions on pricing for any home you are considering. My experience applies equally to buyers and sellers, and the depth of my analysis is unmatched. Do not hesitate to reach out if you have any questions about pricing in today's market. 

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Inventory across Central Oregon is up over last week as listings increase, heading towards the peak selling season. Homes listed for sale are also up from last year, a factor that is contributing to increased sales volume year to date. By this day in 2023, 443 single-family homes sold in Deschutes County at a median price of 620k. As of this morning, there have been 484 sales in the county at a median of 665k, a not-insignificant increase. Interestingly, on this day in 2023, the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.62%, compared to 6.92% this morning. Of course, every buyer would love access to low mortgage rates, but there is much more to purchasing a home than interest rates. For Central Oregon, suitable choices outweigh rates, and more available inventory is helping buyers find the right home.

This morning in Deschutes County, there are 595 single-family homes listed at a median of $739,900 and an average of $1,115,364. That is an increase of twenty-three over last week as we head to a peak sometime in late summer. Last year's peak was in mid-September at 909 single-family listings, so we still have a way to reach peak inventory. Whether we break the 1,000 listing barrier remains to be seen, but that seems possible based on inventory trends to start 2024. 

Crook County shows 114 listings this morning, up seven from last week. The median asking price is 639k, and the average is 925k. Sales year to date are up modestly, at fifty-eight from fifty-two in 2023, with prices down slightly, at 443k from 449k. With the smaller data pool of Crook County sales, even a few sales in Brasada Ranch could skew the median sales price higher, and I expect just that as we get further into summer. 

Jefferson County inventory increased four this week to seventy-six single-family homes at a median of $431,450 and an average of $519,327. Unlike Crook and Deschutes County, sales are down this year in Jefferson County. Year to date, in 2023, there were thirty-one sales at a median of 365k, while this year's activity is significantly less at only twenty sales. However, the median sale price this year jumped to 443k. As always, the smaller the data set, the less reliable the numbers. The most noticeable difference in 2024 from last year was the lack of sales below 300k. 

As I've mentioned several times this year, I do not expect interest rates to change much in 2024. The most recent CPI data is pushing the Fed towards "higher-longer." The good news is that higher rates are increasing inventory, and more choices are helping buyers find excellent properties that meet their needs. Some properties that have lingered on the market have lowered the asking price and are likely to sell this season. With mortgage rates continuing to fluctuate, staying in contact with your lender is imperative if you want to capitalize on dips in interest rates. Whether you need a lender referral or a price opinion, I am always available, so do not hesitate to reach out!

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With the 30-year fixed-rate national average for a conventional mortgage still above 7%, the inventory of single-family homes in Deschutes County is steadily building. This week, there are 573 listings at a median of 739k, with forty-eight pending sales (647k) and fifty-nine (650k) sold homes. Today's inventory reflects a 12.1% increase from this week last year when there were only 511 homes listed. The median list price for active homes for last year's week was 700k, slightly down from this year, but the sixty-four pending sales median was 692k, while the thirty-eight closed transaction median was 627k. Comparing one week to another isn't the strongest metric, although the trend of lower sales for 2024 is consistent. 

Many analysts predicted more robust sales volume nationwide for 2024, but those same analysts also predicted lower rates starting in March. It stands to reason when rates did not decline, or sales did not increase, which is playing out in Deschutes County. 

Real estate is local, and inventory declined by eight to 107 single-family homes in Crook County, at a median of 600k. A robust fourteen sales at a median of 492k and two closed transactions of 318k and 489k round out the weekly numbers. Unlike Deschutes County, Crook County inventory is down ten from last year's week when the median list price was 50k lower than today. Fourteen pending sales and four closed transactions last year almost perfectly align with this week's numbers.

Inventory bounces around in the early stages of the spring selling season. However, despite growing inventory in Deschutes County, available homes in Central Oregon are still low enough to keep prices elevated. The longer interest rates stay elevated, the better chance that more homes will hit the market and prices will soften. The wrinkle in that equation is buyer demand, a complex dynamic to predict. 

Jefferson County inventory dropped two this week to seventy-two listings at a median of 435k. This week last year showed sixty-eight active listings at a median of 430k, consistent with today's market. There were five pending sales this week last year as well as this week, but the median sale price went from 335k to 600k. Six closed transactions the previous year's week eclipse this week's one sale, but the median sale price last year of 347k is far short of this week's 940k. Jefferson County includes a large geographic area with a tremendous diversity of available properties, so do not read too much into the year-over-year pending and sold price discrepancies. 

Overall, today's housing market is very much in line with the market of the last year or so. Mortgage rates are trending higher, as well as inflation, but low inventory keeps prices firm. The market is not impacted evenly by these dynamics, with many homes still selling in a matter of days at or near the full asking price. An accurate listing price is the key to a quick sale for sellers. Testing the market with a high price has increased marketing times tremendously. For unique properties in great locations, longer marketing times are typical, giving sellers time to start high and adjust as we get deeper into the year. However, with a mortgage rate pivot increasingly unlikely in 2024, sellers closer to the median sale price need to price accurately sooner rather than later. 

With Central Oregon's growing population, most properties find a buyer eventually, and the old location of the church owned by the Roman Catholic Diocese in Crook County was put under contract this week after 782 days listed. This spectacular property sits on 38 acres, with 25 acres of water rights and expansive views of the Cascade Mountains. A home exists on the property, but the cabins, seven RV spots, and a 3,000-square-foot chapel make this far from a typical residential property. It will be interesting to see what the new owner has in store for this iconic location!

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With the housing market simmering considerably less than red-hot, inventory is relatively stable but fluctuating. Mortgage rates this morning are at 7.16%, but prices across all three counties of Central Oregon are up for active, pending, and closed sales compared to this week in 2023. With interest rates looking to stay higher for longer and a rate pivot looking increasingly slim for 2024, are we at an inflection point? While inventory hasn't yet reached the level of applying significant downward pressure to home prices, slow buyer demand could help tip the scale. Anecdotally, I have recently shown a property on the extreme edge of being overpriced, in my estimation. However, our market thrives on solid demand from qualified buyers, and it doesn't take many sales at current prices to set expectations for sellers. Whether appraisers agree with those valuations will unfold as the year progresses. 

This morning in Deschutes County, inventory decreased five from last week, and there are now 546 single-family homes listed. Last year's week, there were 485 listings, a 12.6% reduction. The median price of active listings this morning is 739k, up slightly from 725k last year this week. Fifty-four homes are pending at a median of 700k, with forty-four closed at 664k. Pending sales of seventy-six this week last year at 630k and sixty-one closed sales at 600k show a striking increase in prices. Seeing how well prices hold up will be interesting as pivot dreams fade. 

Crook County inventory increased by five to 115 single-family homes listed, still down five from this week last year. Five pending sales at a median of 485k and three closed sales at a median of $503,750 (average 496k) reflect fewer transactions and higher prices than last year. On this week in 2023 in Crook County, there were ten pending sales at a median of 432k and five closed transactions at 489k. With total inventory down from last year, firmer prices stand to reason.

In Jefferson County, inventory decreased by five to seventy-four at a median of $439,750. This week, there were eleven pending sales at a median of 380k, with two closed transactions at an average of 395k rounding out the weekly data. Inventory on this week last year was sixty-five, with the median price at 415k. In 2023, this week, there were seven pending sales at 315k and one closed sale at 330k. With the diversity of homes and properties in Jefferson County and relatively low sales volume, I wouldn't read too much into the price differences year over year. However, when considered in combination with the activity in Crook and Deschutes County, it is hard to dispute that prices are up. 

I have not been shy about expressing my opinion that the crowd clamoring for and assuming significant rate pivots are delusional in our current economic reality. But, there is no question that narrative sunk in with a large percentage of the general public. My intuition tells me a lot of the highly aggressive pricing we see today came from sellers and agents, assuming that rates would decline by this point of the year and buyers would be flooding the market. There is no doubt that Central Oregon continues to grow, but it is unknown if the influx of buyers will accept higher prices in light of higher borrowing costs. Inventory may be up from last year, but anyone actively looking can attest that selection still feels limited. One higher-end home that has lingered on the market raised the list price by over 20%! Raising the list price in a market flooded with homes can get the house in front of people who may have set search price parameters higher, but I question how effective that will be in our small market, where there are only a handful of homes above $4M. The house is unique and beautiful in a one-of-a-kind location, so who knows?

I recommend pricing appropriately for sellers to secure a sale sooner rather than later. I do not anticipate selling conditions improving as the year progresses. Taking advantage of lower inventory and less competition is a "strike while the irons hot" scenario. Conversely, I do not anticipate a collapse in housing this season, but with so much going on in the world, it is uncertain what the landscape will be in nine months. Still, growth in Central Oregon will continue, and the forces driving people here from other locations are as strong as ever.

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With mortgage interest rates over 7%, the inventory of single-family homes in Central Oregon has stabilized. If rates stay above 7%, I expect modest inventory growth, as higher rates slow the market. Hopes of a rate pivot in March have not only disappeared, but many are talking about a rate increase from the Fed in light of recent inflation numbers. As I mentioned last week, I do not expect a pivot in the first half of 2024, and I increasingly believe a pivot is unlikely for the entire year. An increase at the May or June Fed meetings would likely only be 25 basis points, but any increase likely pushes any hopes for a rate pivot into 2025. 

Single-family homes for sale in Deschutes County increased by one to 551, up from last year's week when 514 homes were listed. At this time of year, I expect the inventory levels to bounce around before beginning the climb to a peak in late summer, but with tighter lending, the upward trend could start sooner. Pending sales in Deschutes County were fifty-five, with forty-two closed transactions. Closed transactions were up by six from last year's week, but pending sales were down thirty. The median days listed for pending and closed sales this week were only sixteen. With new listings hitting the market early in the year, it stands to reason that days on the market are low, but the numbers reflect new inventory that is attractive, priced competitively, or both. 

In this market, it is imperative that sellers not overprice to attract a smaller pool of qualified buyers. Testing a higher price in these conditions could lead to an extended marketing time requiring price reductions to chase the market. As the housing market evolves, strategy is more important than just putting a sign in the ground.

Crook County inventory remains 110 listings, with nine pending sales and five closed transactions. The fewer new listings in Crook County means buyers are sifting through existing inventory, reflected in eighty-seven days on the market for the median pending sale and seventy-three days for the closed transactions this week. 

Jefferson County inventory increased by one to seventy-nine, with two pending sales and one closed transaction this week. With so few new listings and transactions, the Jefferson County housing market is considerably less active than the rest of Central Oregon. 

I have noticed a significant shift in real estate marketing lately, from "buy now, before prices increase!" to "rates are near historical averages, and it could be a long time before rates decline." I can only assume these campaigns operate under the belief that people are not paying attention to the message from one day to the next. Now might be a perfect time to buy or sell, but that is a personal decision. When rates were lower, and the market was frothy, buyers had to contend with multiple offers and rising prices. Now that rates are higher, there is less competition, and prices are more stable. Buying or selling a home is a big decision that should not be taken lightly. The best course of action encompasses a long-term approach and a mortgage you can afford today. Refinancing to a lower rate in the future could be an excellent way to save a bit on your monthly payment, but refinancing isn't always guaranteed. 

Stay in contact with your lender, explore the myriad loan programs available, and evaluate the return of your investment in points paid towards a rate buy-down before making a decision. Some pre-paid interest is refundable and pro-rated if you sell, while others are sunk costs. It is easy to become hyper-focused on interest rates in today's volatile market, but that is only one small part of the equation.

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Yesterday's Consumer Price Index report was a bucket of cold water for those clamoring for a rate pivot from the Federal Reserve. Most financial writers are comparing year-over-year inflation, but when viewed month over month and annualized over three and six months, the trends are rising, not decreasing, especially in the Core Inflation numbers the Fed looks at most closely. Yesterday's report removes any lingering hope for a March pivot and likely pushes any chance of a Fed decrease into June at the earliest. While it may only be the second week of February, the recent CPI report locks in the market for the first half 2024. Mortgage interest rates are not directly tied to the Fed overnight rate, and weekly volatility will likely continue. This morning, the 30-year national average for fixed-rate conventional financing is 7.13%.

Deschutes County single-family home inventory decreased by eight to 550, up twenty-eight from last year's week. In many cases, higher mortgage rates equate to more listings, and it will be interesting to see if available homes for sale increase now that the current rates are all but assured for the first half of the year. So far, buyer demand has remained steady, with sixty-eight pending sales this week and forty-four closed transactions. 

Crook County homes for sale increased by three to 107, with strong pending sales of eleven and six closed transactions. Last year's week, Crook County had 131 active listings, so constrained supply is still a significant factor for the county. 

Jefferson County inventory dropped five to seventy-eight. On last year's week, an inventory of seventy-one is very much in line with today's available homes. Jefferson County activity is remarkably stable year-over-year, with every indication that will continue. 

Recently, I've read several reports of rising inventory, rising prices, or both. However, in most cases, the writers do not specify where the numbers come from or what they are measuring. Some include every home in the country, others exclude condos, and some focus on geographic regions. The largest, most stable data pool for Central Oregon is Deschutes County single-family homes, the basis for my reports. Crook and Jefferson County information is vital for anyone considering those counties, but the active, pending, and closed data for those areas fluctuates tremendously from week to week. However, for those of you that followed my breakdown of how each community in Central Oregon performed in 2023 compared to 2022, it was clear sales were down ~25%, while prices were down ~5%. Low inventory overcame reduced transaction volume to keep prices firm. 2024 is shaping up to be a carbon copy of 2023.

As I have mentioned ad nauseam in my reports, any downward pressure on home prices in Central Oregon will be preceded by rising inventory and lingering days on the market. Whether buyers, sellers, and market analysts stay laser-focused on a someday pivot or accept today's reality remains to be seen. Prices may not be heavily discounted, but they are also not rising aggressively. Looking through the pending and closed transactions, many buyers have negotiated some attractive deals. If you plan to make Central Oregon home for the foreseeable future, exploring today's options will likely reveal some very nice homes. Hopefully, the inventory will continue to gain steam as we head into spring and summer.

I am always available if you have any questions, and EnjoyBendLife.com has all the information you need for individual listings or market trends at your fingertips!

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Am I the only one that can't believe the first week of February is over? As the new year chugs along, the housing market shows signs of what is in store for the first half of the season. Most analysts and real estate insiders have assumed that the Federal Reserve will lower the overnight rate banks charge other banks. And, in turn, mortgage rates will fall. Some even believe multiple rate decreases are in store for the year. The pivot speculation all hinges on Jerome Powell's statement in early December about the Fed starting to talk about when a rate pivot might happen. I've read several publications that have phrased it as the "Fed's December pivot," which is interesting considering the Fed did not lower rates in December nor at last week's meeting. Powell said the likelihood of the Fed being confident in the data by the March meeting to justify a rate decrease is extremely unlikely. If that holds, that pushes the earliest chance for a decline to the April 30-May 1st meeting. Even if the Fed drops rates at the end of April, anything more than 25 basis points is overly optimistic. This morning, the 30-year national average for a fixed-rate conventional mortgage is 6.96%. So much for the pivot scenario!

Generally speaking, lower rates keep prices firm or rising, as well as low inventory. In Deschutes County this morning, half that equation is in play, with 558 single-family listings, down eight from last week. This week last year, there were 510 active listings, indicating that higher rates are helping to increase available inventory, although not enough to drop prices. Prices this week for the fifty-four pending sales and thirty-eight closed transactions are similar to last year, at an average of $728,124 and $881,175, respectively. Pending sales this week are down ten from last year's week, while closed transactions are up twelve. 

While sales volume is consistent with this time of year, the strong buyer demand is not as readily apparent in the data. The median pending days on the market in Deschutes County were forty-nine last week and thirty-eight for closed transactions. However, looking at the mix of properties buyers have taken action on shows several homes under contract that have lingered for some time. As our inventory remains low and buyers are motivated to secure a property and move on with their lives, many choose to take action with not necessarily the most desirable properties. New sellers are optimistic about the coming peak selling season as the inventory is continuously sorted and filtered with sales and new listings. Without inventory growth, the season looks very similar to our recent past, with more buyers than sellers and firm, if not increasing prices. 

Crook County saw a modest increase of five listings, with 107 single-family homes for sale. Five pending sales and seven closed transactions rounded out the week at an average of $399,178 and $513,785, respectively. Still, inventory is down twenty-six from this point last year. 

With the large majority of the real estate industry convinced that a rate decrease is the solution, along with a propensity to brush off any indication that they might not get their wish, it is unlikely much will change in the first half of the year. I expect Wall Street and most analysts to continue looking forward to a pivot in Fed policy while accepting the data about a strong economy at face value. If the Fed holds rates at the April meeting, many analysts will use that as evidence that a pivot must be in store soon, and if the Fed lowers rates by 25 basis points, they will rejoice that the pivot is here. Once rates finally decline, you can be sure the message will be to buy now before prices increase further. To be sure, prices have done just that over the last few years, with the housing unaffordability index at all-time highs. BTFD!

In Jefferson County this week, like Crook County, inventory increased modestly, now at eighty-three single-family house listings. Two homes are pending, with one sale. Prices this year are in line with last year's week, although volume last year was double with four pending sales and two closed transactions, which is negligible considering the typical modest transaction volume for the county. This week last year in Jefferson County, only sixty-eight single-family homes were listed.

There are two critical factors to consider when evaluating Central Oregon real estate. First, how long is your timeframe? Whether that is the time before you purchase or how long you plan to be in your Central Oregon home, these are essential questions to answer. If you can afford today's payment, eventually, rates will soften, and a refinance will make sense. Candidly, I don't expect that to happen in 2024, and I don't see 3% mortgage rates anytime soon. But rates below 6% are likely in the next couple of years. Don't let higher rates today discourage you from moving to Central Oregon if the timing is right. I encourage you to keep close contact with your lender, as rates are highly volatile. Second, when the right home comes up, take action! Especially with today's limited inventory, finding the right home can be tricky. Many properties have more than one buyer circling, and waiting can mean the difference between securing a great property and starting the process over again. 

Lastly, for home prices to decrease, inventory needs to increase. Our supply-constrained market shows no signs of a large influx of homes for sale. The longer it takes for inventory to stop the seasonal decline, the more frantic the peak buying season. If you choose to wait for more options in the market, make sure your financing is in order, and your lender has what is needed to produce a pre-approval letter at a moment's notice. When buyer competition is intense, you will not have the luxury of taking your time with an offer, and you can be sure other buyers will be ready to take immediate action on a home that suits their needs. The market factors are becoming old news for anyone who has been looking for a while, as this year is shaping up to be very similar to last.

If you are interested in how 2023 shaped up compared to 2022, my report last week detailed the last of the Central Oregon communities on my list to review and links to all the previous year-end reviews. In a nutshell, sales were down roughly 25%, and prices were down about 5%. My year-end reports show the precise community numbers for those focused on a specific part of Central Oregon. 

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Today, I wrap up my year-end reports focusing on Madras and Terrebonne sales in 2023. I looked at the Sisters year-over-year comparisons just before the end of last year in my December 13 report. Followed by Redmond on December 20, La Pine on December 27, Prineville and Brasada Ranch on January 3, Bend on January 10, Sunriver and Three Rivers South on January 17, and Caldera Springs and Crosswater last week. You can find all these reports at www.EnjoyBendLife.com/blog/ for reference and comparison.

Inventory of single-family homes in Deschutes County declined again this week, now at 566, down twelve from last week. Fifty-eight pending sales at a median of $634,900 occurred in the past seven days, with thirty-three closed transactions at a median of 700k. This week last year, inventory showed 521 active listings with fifty-seven pending sales and 40 closed transactions at a median of $598,418. The median price reduction last year was 9.88% compared to 5.48% this year. Usually, lower inventory would equate to higher prices. However, last year, rising interest rates at the Federal Reserve brought a lot of uncertainty to the housing market, and many sellers were sitting back. Buyers were making lower offers that, in many cases, were accepted, dropping the median price somewhat. With 8.67% more listings this year, prices are up 16.97%! I do not expect prices to rise to double digits for 2024, but at this point in the year, buyer demand feels more substantial than last year, even though transaction volume is similar. Available inventory will impact price trends the most, but it seems highly unlikely we will see a spike large enough to temper prices in the first half of the year. 

Crook County inventory declined to 102 single-family listings at a median of 599k, down one from last week. Eight pending sales at a median of 382k, with four closed transactions at a median of 441k, is similar to last year's week. However, unlike Deschutes County, Crook County inventory on this week last year was up 30.3% at 133. With even lower inventory and steady demand, I expect Crook County pricing to remain firm. Although looking at the lower-priced properties in Prineville, many have reached a ceiling on price and are not breaking past the 400k threshold. This morning, nineteen properties in Crook County for sale are less than 400k, nearly 20% of the market.

Again this week, Jefferson County inventory is remarkably stable, with seventy-seven single-family homes listed, just one more than last week. Two homes are pending at an average of $326,500, with two sold at an average of $449,500. 

The city of Madras, located in Jefferson County, sits at the northern portion of Central Oregon, the gateway to Lake Billy Chinook, and only an hour twenty-three-minute drive to Mt. Hood or an hour fifteen to Mt. Bachelor. This morning, fifty-one single-family homes are listed in Madras at a median of 419k, with one pending sale (318k) and one closed transaction (289k) for the week. In 2023, 129 closed single-family homes sold, down from 196 in 2022, a decrease of 34.2%. The median sale was 360k, a drop of 6.1%. 

Terrebonne, the spectacular Smith Rock State Park home, is located on the northern edge of Deschutes County, only eight minutes driving time from Redmond. This morning, there are twenty-five active listings in Terrebonne at a median of 590k, with two pending sales (546k) and one closed transaction in Crooked River Ranch at 610k. Not surprisingly, Terrebonne sales in 2023 were down 27.7%, with 73 closed transactions. However, unlike most of Central Oregon, the median sale price of 620k reflects a 5.98% increase, with the $675,247 average a 9.7% increase over 2022. Much of Terrebonne has sweeping views of the Cascade Mountain Range and is near thriving Redmond, although with a more laid-back vibe. It is no wonder demand remains high for Terrebonne. 

In Deschutes County, the most populous county in Central Oregon with nearly 210,000 residents, 40% of the active listings reflect a price reduction. In an average market, closer to 30% would be typical, and just a few weeks ago, nearly half of all sellers had reduced their asking price. While price reductions may indicate a softening market, in Central Oregon, price reductions indicate sellers starting high because of strong buyer demand. After some time listed, and with feedback from showings, sellers adjust their price to find a buyer. Only looking at price reductions or raw data can be misleading. Anyone who has lost out on a home to another more motivated buyer knows that desirable homes find buyers and do not linger. So far, 2024 shows no sign of abatement in demand or pricing. Without exception, anyone who purchased five years ago has tremendous equity in their home. What do you think things will look like five years from today? 

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In today's report, I will break down the Caldera Springs and Crosswater subdivisions in the Three Rivers South/Sunriver area. But first, the three county report for Central Oregon.

This morning in Deschutes County, there are 578 single-family homes listed, ten less than last week. On this week last year, there were 553 listings, so we are slightly ahead as the new year unfolds. Forty-three homes are pending at a median of 639k, with 40 sold at $551,890. This week last year, there were forty-seven pending and thirty-four sold homes, close to this year's numbers. The median numbers were 625k for pending sales this week in 2023 and 560k for sold properties, a negligible change for the small number of sales to date. However, only looking at single-family sales year-to-date, in 2024, there have been 139 sales compared to 118 last year. I attribute the increased activity to the lower mortgage interest rates last month that seemed to bring some buyers off the sidelines. Unfortunately, the low rates didn't last long, with rates this morning at 6.92%. As talk of recession heats up again and the odds of a rate pivot from the Fed decrease, it seems that conditions are tightening, not loosening. Several factors, not least of which is the turmoil in the Red Sea, are colluding to put upward pressure on inflation, making the rate pivot Wall Street expected in March increasingly unlikely. With so much volatility driving the markets, anything can happen quickly. While our inventory to start 2024 is still historically low, the slight increase over 2023 is something to watch as we get deeper into the new year.

This morning, Crook County has 103 active single-family listings, with nine pending sales at a median of $439,660 and four closed transactions at a median of $402,142. One of the pending sales was a property in Powell Butte listed at $2.9M, and backing that out from the pending sales drops Crook County's pending average to $440,382 from $713,673. The limited inventory in Crook County covers a wide range of property types and price points that are not shown when looking at median or average numbers. This week last year in Crook County, there were 129 active listings, five pending and two sales. While the difference in pending and sold activity is slight, the increase in activity combined with a more than 20% decrease in inventory is sure to put upward pressure on prices. Throughout Central Oregon, inventory is the key to the market.

Jefferson County inventory declined three to seventy-six this week, up two from this week last year. Four homes are pending at an average of $392,225, with zero sales. This week last year, there were three sales in Jefferson County at a median of 365k and no sales. With so little data, there isn't much insight into the price, but the low level of homes listed and consistency compared to last year indicate similar conditions in 2024 to last year. 

Last week, I excluded the golf course communities of Caldera Springs and Crosswater from my year-end report on Three Rivers South and Sunriver because of the differences in property types and price points. Let's take a look at how those communities stack up.

This morning in Caldera Springs, nine homes are listed at a median of $2,595,000, with no pending or closed transactions. There are also nine vacant lots listed at a median of 479k. In 2022, there were thirty-seven sales in Caldera Springs at a median of $1,900,00, and the most expensive sale at $3.3M. In 2023, there were twenty-five sales at a median of $1,469,000, with the most expensive sale at $3.5M. While a 32.4% reduction in sales seems significant, Caldera Springs is still building out, and available inventory impacts these numbers. Caldera Springs also rolled out a new phase of the subdivision, selling twenty-seven lots in 2023 at a median of 519k and another ninety lots in 2022 at a median of 455k. With so much new construction and a limited number of existing homes listed, local knowledge and in-depth analysis are required to evaluate Caldera Springs properly. Resort zoning for the subdivision allows short-term rentals throughout, with some properties required to be available in the vacation rental pool for forty-eight weeks per year, further complicating the price analysis. Whether you want to build in Caldera Springs, purchase an existing home, or invest in a vacation rental, this fantastic community deserves consideration. With limited availability throughout Sunriver and Three Rivers South, Caldera Springs, without question, has the largest selection of newer high-end properties available. If close access to Mt. Bachelor or the Deschutes River is appealing, this part of Deschutes County is unique and increasingly sought after.

Lastly, in Crosswater this morning, one home is listed for sale at $2,225,000, active on the market for sixteen days. 2022 saw reasonable activity in the community, with three single-family home sales at an average of $2,620,691 and three townhomes sold at an average of $995,225. In 2023, one home in Crosswater sold at $1,775,000. Many avid golfers hold the Crosswater Golf Course in high regard, and the course is only open to owners and guests, making it the most exclusive golfing in southern Deschutes County. Bordered on the West by the Big and Little Deschutes Rivers, Crosswater has some of the most stunning properties in the area. With so few sales and strong buyer demand, I encourage you to act quickly if something in the community becomes available. 

My knowledge of Central Oregon is vast, and I am local to the Three Rivers South community. If Caldera Springs, Crosswater, Sunriver, or any of the neighborhoods that make up southern Deschutes County appeal to you, I would be happy to share my knowledge of the area. Please reach out with any questions. 

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Today, I have year-end reports for Sunriver and Three Rivers South and the tri-county Central Oregon weekly reports. Most people know that Sunriver Resort stands independently between Bend and La Pine, but fewer know that Three Rivers South is considered a Bend zip code. Interestingly, Sunriver and Three Rivers South share zip code 97707, with one using the city of Sunriver and the other Bend 97707. Caldera Springs and Crosswater, two golf course communities considered Sunriver neighborhoods, have Bend 97707 addresses. Since this is all confusing enough, I am leaving the year-end report of Crosswater and Caldera Springs out of the equation today. The Price points in Caldera Springs and Crosswater are considerably higher than most of Three Rivers South, and those communities deserve a separate report to account for the differences. I have local knowledge of Sunriver, Three Rivers South, and Sunriver, so please let me know if you need help learning about this diverse part of Deschutes County.

First, Deschutes County single-family home inventory declined to 588 listings this morning, down eleven from last week. However, this week last year, there were 552 listings, indicating that the sale-to-listing ratio may be improving slightly. Inventory will be an essential metric to follow in the coming weeks and is a solid leading indicator for pricing as we head into summer. The median active list price is $736,450, and eighty-nine days on the market. Last week shows fifty-four sales at a median of $689,500 and thirty-two days, with thirty-five sales at a median of $655500 and eighteen days. While inventory might be up slightly from last year's point, the days on the market for the pending and sold homes indicate strong buyer demand relative to what is listed.

Second, in Crook County, 105 single-family homes are listed at a median of 599k and ninety-eight days on the market, representing a decline of three from last week. Crook County's active listings have remained steady for some time, indicating a bottom for the supply-constrained market. During 2023, Crook County saw peak inventory at 157 and the bottom at 107, so unlike Deschutes County, Crook is still experiencing historically low availability. Seven homes are pending at a median of 400k and seventy-seven days listed, with five sales at 519k and 139 days listed. 

Third, Jefferson County also shows stability in the active listings at seventy-nine this morning, up one from last week. One home is pending at $531,439 and listed for 192 days, with two sales averaging 511,615 and thirty-six days on the market. In 2023, the low point for inventory in Jefferson County was sixty-four, with the high point at ninety.

Starting with the Sunriver Weekly report, fifty-six properties are active at a median of 577k and eighty-nine days on the market. Two sales are pending at a median of 825k (675k and 975k), averaging two days on the market. Two properties in Sunriver sold at a median price of 880k (585k and $1,175,000) and nine days on the market. The remarkably short days on the market for this week's pending and sold properties in Sunriver indicate strong buyer demand when good properties hit the market.

In 2023, 158 properties sold in Sunriver at a median of $765,50. Sales were down 26.2% from 2022's 214 sales, while the median sale price declined 5.5%. However, the average sale price of $760,542 was a modest .19% increase. Remember that these are only homes "inside the fence" of Sunriver Resort, not including Caldera Springs or Crosswater.

Lastly, Three Rivers South shows thirty-four active listings this morning at a median of 675k and sixty-two days on the market. Two homes are pending at an average of 930k (310k and $1,550,000) and forty-three days on the market—one manufactured home with a lot sold for 230k after fifty-five days listed.

In 2023, there were 131 sales of single-family homes in Three Rivers South (TRS) at a median of 630k and an average of $704,272. Sales were down 13.8% from 2022's 152, and the median sale price reflects a modest .48% increase. However, the average sale price shows a decrease of 8.2% from 2022. 

Unlike Sunriver, Caldera Springs, or Crosswater, TRS has manufactured homes available. Twenty manufactured homes sold in TRS in 2023, down from twenty-five in 2022. The median sale price of 365k was a 14.9% decrease from 2022, with the average sale price of $378,645, an 11.9% decrease. Mortgage interest rates are significantly impacting this market segment, with the price increases of the last few years appearing to have peaked. While some of the manufactured homes available in TRS are pretty nice, many require repair, making financing challenging. With buildable lots in TRS in short supply and the area in high demand, some of these properties are sold primarily for the lot. Not every manufactured home will succumb to demolition, but I suspect many manufactured home buyers in TRS have plans for future renovations and upgrades. 

For the casual observer, the Sunriver and Three Rivers South reports can be challenging to decipher with so many vaguely geographically delineated areas. But, on www.EnjoyBendLife.com, you will find separate searches, descriptions, and market reports for each neighborhood. Please do not hesitate to ask questions about this incredible part of Central Oregon!

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