My Weekly Central Oregon Real Estate Blog

Inventory growth has slowed with the arrival of peak selling season. Still, all three counties of Central Oregon have more homes for sale this week than last. More listings will trickle in until August or September, when the seasonal decline in homes for sale tapers off towards winter. Typically, the Fourth of July is relatively slow for showings and activity, with many buyers and sellers on lakes and hiking trails or at concerts and barbequing with family and friends. The holiday-shortened work-week will reduce the sales and pending activity before everything picks up for one of the busiest stretches of the year, from July 4th to Labor Day. I wish all of my readers a safe and happy Fourth of July!

This morning, 1211 single-family homes are listed for sale in Deschutes County, an increase of eighteen from last week. Seventy-four pending sales, at an average price of $887,196, and ninety-two closed transactions, at an average price of $818,817, round out the week. The closed sales show median days on the market of twenty, with the median price change at -3.33% and the average at $2.24%. 

In Deschutes County, acreage property in the right location is in such high demand that prices over $5M are becoming commonplace. Deschutes County grew by over 6,000 residents last year; a solid percentage are very well-qualified buyers. While some great new listings are available, we have a limited amount of inventory in the high-end that would soften prices. There are only so many large acreage locations in cool areas, and those are selling and creating comps that set the floor very high. For illustration, the median sales price in 2023 YTD, compared to 2024 across all price points in Deschutes County, is up 8.7%. In YTD 2023, eight sales over $3M at a median of $3,341,120 compared with YTD 2024, at thirteen sales and a median of $3,732,625. That's an increase of 11.7% in price and 62.5% in volume. The high-end is outpacing the rest of the market for price appreciation. Central Oregon is on the map for high-end buyers, with the prices to prove it.

Crook County inventory this morning is up seventeen from last week, at 159 single-family homes for sale. Only one pending sale, at $499,900, was registered for the week, with seven closed transactions at a median of $714,000 and an average of $832,340. I expect next week's numbers to be down considerably, with all of the fantastic Fourth of July events in Crook County, before activity picks up for the second half of peak selling season. This weekend, boating and water skiing activities on the Prineville Reservoir will be at peak season levels.

Jefferson County's activity was solid last week, with six pending sales and eight closed transactions. Inventory in the county is up three to 105. The average pending sale price for the week was $481,283, with the closed transaction average at $420,062. Lake Billy Chinook, the reservoir at the confluence of the Metolius, Deschutes, and Crooked Rivers, will be filled with boaters and water sports enthusiasts for the holiday weekend, one of the busiest of the year. The second home community of 3 Rivers Recreation will be bustling!

I will be working through the holiday, so feel free to reach out if any real estate questions arise between all the fun activities you have planned. Scheduling showings can be tricky with so many families having weekend plans, but I am always happy to do my best to get you into any home you are interested in. Whenever you are ready, I am available to help you navigate any of your real estate needs. 

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Many lenders and real estate agents cling to mortgage interest trends as the only metric that matters when evaluating the market. While borrowing costs undoubtedly significantly impact affordability, inflation, real interest rates, and equity market trends all play a role in the decisions of many real estate buyers and sellers. In Central Oregon, selection, or lack thereof, has tremendously impacted the market over the last few years. Most buyers are more concerned with finding the right property than a minuscule rate adjustment. Judging by price growth trends with rates above 7%, if rates dropped 200 basis points, it is hard to imagine prices declining. Many buyers in 2022 had difficulty accepting prices, but in retrospect, that was still a great time to buy when you look at prices today. Every situation is unique, but waiting for a housing price drop in Central Oregon has not been an effective strategy.

There are thirty-seven more listings in Deschutes County this morning than last week, bringing the total to 1193. The days on the market for active listings remain stable at forty-eight, with the median list price at $840,750 and the average at $1,173,865. Nearly half (535) of the active market has reduced the asking price by an average of -5.11%. This week's numbers closely mirror last year's when the average actively listed property was $1,132,877, and the average price drop was -5.43%. Pending sales this week were down slightly at sixty-seven, most likely because of a shortened work week with a Federal Holiday. Fifty-five homes closed at a median of 17 days on the market and an average price of $863,456. Before securing a contract for the closed listings, the average price reduction was -2.39%, indicating desirable properties priced right. The closed sales totaled $47,490,102. 

Crook County inventory is flat, with an increase of one to 142 active listings, 52 median days on the market, and an average price of $968,737. Nine homes are pending, with only 15 days on the market and an average price of $455,188, and only two price changes, averaging -1.65%. Five homes closed at 23 days on the market before securing a contract and an average sale price of $524,799. Of the closed sales, three homes reduced the asking price before finding a buyer by an average of -1.99%. The Crook County housing market remains remarkably stable, with sellers getting their asking price in most cases. 

Jefferson County's active listings increased by three to 102, with a median listing time of fifty-three and an average list price of $611,683. One less work day didn't slow the activity in Jefferson County, with five pending sales at an average of $534,020 and eight closed sales at an average of $403,500. The median days listed were twenty-four and twenty-one, respectively.

Despite a large part of the real estate industry being hyper-focused on a rate pivot, I maintain that the chances of any change from the Federal Reserve are doubtful this year. The most recent almost imperceptible downtick in CPI was due to energy costs and housing, one of which isn't a part of the Fed's preferred measure, Core CPI. Both of those metrics will increase by the next CPI report. Nationwide, the median home sale price reached new highs at over $439,000, and Brent Crude Oil reached $85/barrel this morning. I want nothing more than to see real progress made on inflation, but the data doesn't show that as a long-term trend. Be cautious viewing graphs that zero in on a short timeline, making small changes look larger than they are. 

The national trends and economics are always on my radar, but my specialty lies in the Central Oregon housing market. I am working with several clients to find the finest homes in our market, and I have first-hand knowledge of the fantastic homes available in the best locations in the area. No matter your budget, I am here to support you and help you make the best decision for your needs. 

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Last week, I showed significant increases in median sale prices year over year in Central Oregon. Today, let's complete the picture by looking at inventory levels and days on the market. I write these reports primarily to bring hard data to the conversation about housing in our area, as I so often speak with buyers and sellers with an inaccurate view of the market. One misconception I hear repeated is that home prices are declining. Last week's data proved this is not the case, but price reductions in the active market are the most likely culprits that spur that narrative. When a home is listed at a high price and lingers without a sale, then reduces the price, it is easy to assume prices are dropping. However, the price was too high in many cases, and the reduced price is still higher than or equal to past sales. Knowing past median sales data is imperative to accurately viewing today's prices.

The logical assumption is that increased inventory drives prices down. While more homes for sale will eventually tip the scales towards lower prices, many real estate market dynamics prevent that from happening. One dynamic preventing a significant price drop is the short days many homes are listed before securing a contract. This year in Central Oregon, sales are slightly up from last year, but many more sellers are listing homes, bringing an increase in inventory. More selection has opened up opportunities for buyers conditioned to a supply-constrained market to find their perfect fit, and they are seizing the opportunity. The data shows pending and sold properties with very low days on the market. While some homes linger, others are snatched up very soon after listing, creating an uneven market that requires focused attention to track. The percentage of near-immediate sales keeps prices firm and rising in many cases.

This morning, there are 1156 single-family homes for sale in Deschutes County, seventy-eight more than last week. For reference, on June 21, 2023, there were 762 single-family listings in the county. The significant increase in supply has helped keep sales relatively strong but still falls short of past inventory levels. Pending sales in the county show median days of eleven, with twenty-two days for the sold properties. Downward price trends require inventory increases and an increase in days on the market, which is missing from today's data. Attractive, well-priced properties are moving quickly.

Crook County's home inventory shows 141 listings, up four from last week. Unlike Deschutes County, Crook County's inventory this week in June last year was up five from this morning, flat year over year. Coincidentally, the price appreciation in the county year to date was a very average 3.6%. Reading between the lines, the smaller pool of homes for sale has hindered buyers' options, making the Crook County market challenging to navigate. With a population of just under 27,000, Crook County's inventory would be hard-pressed to increase dramatically without significant outside pressure to drive the market. Considering the growth of Prineville and the county, the housing market has reached a relative balance, preventing any substantial dips or jumps. The good news for buyers and sellers in Crook County is the market is easier to read than some of the hotter locations in Central Oregon. Still, the median pending days listed this week was twenty-four, with sold sales at thirty-nine.

Jefferson County's inventory dropped one from last week, now at ninety-nine. This week last year, there were only seventy-one listings in the county. While the increase helps buyers with more selection, there are still very few options at any particular price point in Madras and the surrounding areas, with thirteen listings over $1M and twenty-six under $400k. Like Crook County, Jefferson County is still a supply-constrained market that buyers must consider when searching for properties. 

Inventory will continue to increase throughout Central Oregon through Labor Day or beyond, creating opportunities for buyers ready to respond. However, those opportunities will likely be more selection and the right mix of features, not lower prices. The likelihood of a rate pivot from the Fed is improbable for 2024. Even if there is a rate reduction before year-end, anything more than 25 basis points seems to be a long shot. If the economy is as strong as many claim, why would the Fed need to reduce interest rates? And if we are heading towards, or already in a recession as others claim, but inflation is still a problem, lowering rates would exasperate stagflationary trends. The Fed is in a rock and a hard place with monetary policy, no matter how you view today's economy. Considering home price appreciation today, lower mortgage interest rates will likely only fuel the fire. Our market is difficult for many to navigate, but when it comes to lower interest rates, you should be careful about what you wish for. 

My knowledge of the Central Oregon housing market exceeds what can be written in a short update or gleaned from a cursory reading of the national news. No matter where you are looking or what type of property you need, I am always available to help you sort through your options. 

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On October 10, 2023, the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 7.11%, nearly identical to this morning's rate of 7.16%. Except for a brief peak in late October to 7.91%, rates have remained within a few basis points of today's rate for several months, bringing stability to the housing market. A modest rise in inventory throughout Central Oregon has provided buyers with more selection for the first time in years, keeping activity consistent. Year-to-date, in 2023, there were 1,267 sales of single-family homes in Deschutes County compared to 1,333 this year.Granted, total sales in 2023 were down considerably from the robust activity of the early 2020s. However, there appears to be a floor for activity in Central Oregon as the area continues to see an influx of new residents. You may have noticed that the marketing from the real estate industry has all but abandoned the "rate pivot" messaging that dominated the second half of 2023 and early 2024. The likelihood of mortgage rates changing significantly or the Federal Reserve pivoting even 25 basis points this year is almost nonexistent. The year-to-date median sale price in Deschutes County in 2023 was $629,900; this year, it is $692,619, an increase of 9.9%. 

Inventory in Deschutes County increased again this week, now at 1078 single-family homes listed, up fifty-two from last week. The average list price in the county is $1,205,373, an increase of nearly 39k since the previous week. The active listings' median days on the market is forty-seven. As more new listings hit the market, prices have increased with solid buyer demand. There were seventy-six pending sales, a slight drop from last week but well within the typical range for the last couple of years. Fifty-two closed sales at thirteen median days on the market and an average sale price of $903,615 round out the weekly statistics. The average price reduction for the closed sales was -1.5%. Remember, the reduction reflects changes before a buyer and seller come to terms, not the final negotiated sale price.

Crook County homes for sale increased by seven to 137, with a median listing time of fifty-one days and an average price of $958,168. Ten sales are pending this week, with five of those transactions in Powell Butte. Five of the eleven closed transactions were in Powell Butte, with the average sale price at $766,772. 

Jefferson County inventory declined two this week, now at an even 100. Five pending and five closed transactions have average prices of $476,730 and $503,952, respectively. None of the closed transactions reduced the asking price before finding a buyer, but two sold for the full asking price, two sold for less than asking, and the last sold over the list price.

Contrary to popular belief and activity in some areas of the country, sale prices are up in Central Oregon. Check out these year-over-year increases:

Bend: 2023 YTD Sales 913, Median Price $675,000

          2024 YTD Sales 948, Median Price $735,000 +8.9%

Sisters: 2023 YTD Sales 77, Median Price $637,500

           2024 YTD Sales 69, Median Price $739,999 +16.08%

Redmond: 2023 YTD Sales 329, Median Price $464,520

           2024 YTD Sales 378, Median Price $529,808 +14.05%

Prineville: 2023 YTD Sales 168, Median Price $410,000

           2024 YTD Sales 164, Median Price $424,947 +3.6%

Finding the right property for your needs can be the biggest challenge in Central Oregon. Past performance does not indicate future gains, but waiting for prices to drop or interest rates to decline has yet to be an effective strategy for buyers. Additional inventory today gives buyers more selection than in the past few years, and buyers are paying what it takes to secure those properties. With no expected changes in mortgage interest rates this year, the second half of 2024 is shaping up to look very much like the first. 

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This week, the days the pending sales were on the market dropped in Deschutes and Crook Counties and increased slightly in Jefferson County. The increase in Jefferson County was modest and is still only 18 days, while Crook dropped thirty to 23, and Deschutes dropped nine to 16. Inventory growth across all three counties was modest, with clear signs buyers are engaged and snapping up attractive properties. More properties lingering from early spring listings are now pending, including my listing in SW Bend, which had tremendous traffic from day one. Mortgage rates this morning are 7.07% for the 30-year fixed-rate national average, on the last several months' lower end of the spectrum. While rates may be uncomfortably high from many perspectives, the stability in rates has spurred activity, not the actual rate. The message of rates staying where they are for a longer period seems to be sinking in, and I see less and less marketing pitching a "rate pivot" than earlier this year. As I mentioned last week, the real interest rate (rate paid minus inflation) is hardly restrictive. 

This morning, 1026 single-family homes are listed in Deschutes County, up eight from last week. The pending median sale price is 725k, a modest increase over last week, but the average pending price is 988k, the highest since July 2023.A higher average price shows more higher-priced homes pending, a trend I have noticed as I have researched the MLS. An influx of new listings at higher prices has created activity, with only sixteen days for the median pending sale days on the market and a solid 87 pending sales this week. Seventy-two sold homes at only ten days on the market further indicates how active the buyers are. The median price reduction for the sold homes before securing a contract was only 2.02%. If you see something you like, in most cases, you will need to act fast to make it yours.

Crook County inventory increased by six to 130, with nine pending sales at a median of 23 days listed. Nine homes are pending this week, with seven sold at median days of 23 and 31 respectively. The pending sale average price reduction was -2.68%, and the sold average was -1.09%. Sellers are getting their asking price in Crook County.

Nine more homes are listed in Jefferson County this week than last, for 102. This is the first time inventory has reached triple digits since I started tracking the data two years ago. Four pending sales at eighteen days listed and seven closed transactions at a median of 12 days show an active market. The pending median and average price change are a positive 3.12%. It is rare to see price increases in the median price change, but as always in Jefferson County, the data pool is too small to apply this metric broadly across the entire inventory. However, all four pending sales were under 400k. 

This morning, I am off to attend an inspection, which I do for every buyer I work with. Whether it is a home, septic, or well inspection, I want to be there if any issues arise to speak with the inspector first-hand and learn as much as possible about the problem. I've learned a lot from inspectors over the years, and I never regret being on-site to ensure I am doing everything I can for my clients. Whether compiling data to write these reports, researching the market for comparables to give a price opinion, or working with inspectors and title companies for a smooth transaction, I take pride in being knowledgeable and hands-on. And that service doesn't stop when the transaction closes! Whether you are taking on a renovation or have questions about who to contact in one of our local governments for more specific information, I am just a phone call away. 

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All three counties in Central Oregon saw modest inventory growth this week, with Deschutes County surpassing the one-thousand mark for the first time in years. While growing inventory has created a considerably larger selection for buyers, it has yet to soften prices. However, many sellers have reconsidered the lofty asking prices of late and come down to reality. Price reductions are good for buyers, but reducing the price from extreme highs does not necessarily make a property's price appealing. It may indicate seller motivation, a good indicator for buyers to follow.

This morning, the Deschutes County inventory of single-family homes is 1018, up twenty from last week. Four hundred active listings have reduced the asking price, 39.3% of the market. In a typical healthy market, approximately one-third of active listings will reduce the price at any given moment, so an increase to nearly 40% is noteworthy. Activity remains consistent, with 79 pending sales this week and only 25 median days on the market. The percentage of price reductions of the pending sales sits at 29.1%, well within a healthy range. Forty-one sales for the week with fifteen reductions equates to 36.6%, also within a healthy range. The median days on the market for the properties sold was twenty-two. Reading between the lines, it is clear that more sellers have reduced the asking price before securing a contract. Remember, the price reduction metric shows price drops before securing a contract; the negotiated price revealed after the sale may be lower still. 

As of this writing, the national average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 7.28%, within the range of the last several months and showing signs of stability. Even a single rate pivot in 2024 from the Federal Reserve seems highly unlikely. Jerome Powell appears content to use his continued dovish narrative to ease financial conditions and leave rates untouched. In light of continued inflation, the real interest rate is closer to neutral than many would have you believe and far from the position necessary to create restrictive economic policy. Unless you are refinancing a bond on commercial real estate, but that is another topic.

Single-family homes in Crook County jumped thirteen to 124, with six pending and six sold properties this week. Four of the six sales reduced the asking price, with a median of fifty-three days listed. Buyers are scooping up these properties as sellers get more realistic about price. Three of the six closed transactions reduced the price with only seventeen median days on the market. Well-priced homes are still moving quickly. 

Jefferson County inventory increased by one to 93, with nine pending sales. Four of the pending sales reduced the asking price, and the median days on the market were only fourteen. None of the three sold properties took a price cut, with the median days listed at thirty-one. 

Analyzing the data and based on my experience in the field, today's market seems uneven regarding the impact on our growing inventory. Well-priced properties are moving fast, with many homes that did not sell last year coming to market and finding a buyer quickly this spring. We are building an increasing number of homes lingering on the market, with more price reductions across the active inventory. Desirable homes are still experiencing high demand, with fewer, more minor price changes. This fall could be an excellent opportunity for buyers as inventory builds and sellers adjust to market conditions. As always, in Central Oregon, finding the right property can be more challenging than finding the right price, and the low days on the market for pending and sold homes prove that buyers are not holding back when they find what they want. 

In addition to my work on my computer analyzing the market, I have also been in-person at properties all over Central Oregon. Please reach out if you have any questions about our housing dynamics. I have answers!

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Sales activity and closings across all three counties of Central Oregon are robust as we head into Memorial Day weekend, typically viewed as the start of peak-selling season for homes. The majority of homes sold will be between now and Labor Day, with new listings continuing through the bulk of summer. This year, inventory growth in Deschutes County has eclipsed the last few years, with the largest amount of actively listed single-family homes available since I started tracking in early 2022. 

Jefferson County shows 92 single-family listings this morning, one less than the peak since 2022. Six pending sales occurred this week at an average of $350,660, with an average price reduction of -5.1%. One full-price sale at $436k rounds out the week. While inventory in Jefferson may have increased to near-peak levels recently, today's number is only six more than last week, well below a volume that would soften prices significantly. If Jefferson County is on your radar, keep an eye on how these trends develop over the summer, as this fall could bring some opportunities that have been a long time coming. Half of the pending sales in Jefferson County this week were below 400k, with one below 200k.

In Crook County, inventory declined eight to 111, the only county in Central Oregon not to see growth last week. With seventeen pending sales and nine closed transactions, activity was robust. The pending and closed transactions included homes in Brasada Ranch near Powell Butte, which significantly skewed the numbers. The median price for pending sales was $440k, with the average at $660k, showing how the higher-priced homes impact the stats. The median sale price for the nine closed transactions was $388,750, while the average was $608,727. The properties near Powell Butte or Brasada Ranch sell for well above $1M, while all of the transactions in Prineville and Crook County outside those areas sold or were pending for under $1M. 

Deschutes County's inventory of single-family homes increased again this week to 998 listings. We have not had more than 1000 listings in years, and for buyers, the expanded number of options has helped tremendously. Prices remain firm, and mortgage rates stable, a dynamic that is not the easiest to navigate for many buyers. Eighty-one pending sales at a median of twenty days on the market show the continued strong buyer demand, with a median pending sale price of $650k and an average of $905k. The discrepancy between the median and average prices indicates the uptick in higher-priced homes going under contract. Sixty-two homes closed last week with a marketing time of only 23 days. The marketing time changes dramatically weekly, but anything below thirty would be considered a fast sale in our market. The days on the market are less meaningful than the volume of transactions. The median sale price for the closed transactions was $722k, while the average was $905k, closely aligned with the pending numbers this week. The median price reduction of the closed transactions was -4.55%, with an average of -4.1%.

Several factors are involved in pricing and price reductions. First and foremost is the accuracy of the list price and whether new inventory and sold properties support or detract from that price. Seller motivation is the second factor, followed by buyer demand. Attempting to use the median or average price reduction to paint a broad brush over all homes on the market will often set an unrealistic expectation for buyers. Still, these numbers can give you a good starting point for evaluating a potential sale price. 

At this time of year, sellers of well-priced homes with solid buyer interest are not likely to accept 10% below the list price. In some cases, that can be a starting point, but it is very likely a seller will counter. Arbitrarily, deciding a home is over-priced and coming in low has a good chance of turning a seller off and making negotiations more difficult. As always, these decisions are on a case-by-case basis. However, buyers must understand that a low offer a seller rejects leaves few options. If price is the biggest issue for a buyer, testing the market with low offers is an excellent way to uncover potential deals. But, if you love the home and are not interested in continuing to search, starting negotiations closer to the asking price is a better strategy. 

Feeling confident in pricing can be tricky, but market analysis is one of the strengths I bring to my clients. No matter where in Central Oregon you are focused, I have the knowledge and experience to help you evaluate any property you are considering. I am available whenever you have real estate questions.  

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Late last year, I predicted that the Federal Reserve would not pivot on interest rates in 2024, and yesterday's Producer Price Index came in hot, adding one more metric to the inflation equation. Even if today's CPI report comes in cooler than the last several months, PPI is a future predictor, and all signs point to increased inflation and the Fed overnight rate staying higher, longer. Any variability in mortgage interest rates will come from fluctuations in the economy and bond yields, which have recently decreased. This morning, the 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage national average is 7.11%, with the 10-year Treasury at 4.415%. Mortgage rates today are well within the operating range of the last few months, bringing no surprises and creating stability for the selling season. The significant changes are what shock buyers, with spikes slowing activity and decreases below the 7% threshold, creating more activity. 

Sellers continue to list, with Deschutes County seeing another big jump in inventory this week to 940 single-family listings, an increase of fifty-four from last week. Pending sales also jumped to eighty-six from sixty-eight last week, with only sixteen median days listed before securing a contract. The median pending sale price increased more than 200k to $822,500, with the weekly average at $954,133. Only nineteen homes reduced the list price before securing a contract. Fifty-seven homes closed at a median of 750k and an average of $946,749, with nineteen price reductions before finding a buyer. 

In Deschutes County, the average sold-to-original list price ratio for the week was 97.13%. This ratio indicates price drops before securing a contract and does not account for prices negotiated below the asking price. The nineteen price reductions of fifty-seven sold properties account for 33.3% of the sold inventory, a typical amount in a healthy market. Despite growing inventory, strong buyer demand has prevented sellers from needing to retreat significantly on price.

Crook County inventory dropped two, now at 119 single-family listings. Fifteen homes are pending this week, with six closed transactions. None of the six homes that closed this week took a price cut before securing a buyer, with three getting full-price, two taking offers below the list price by -5% and -2.5%, and the last accepting an offer 5% over the asking price. The limited inventory in Crook County and strong buyer demand keep prices firm. 

Jefferson County homes for sale increased by three to eighty-six, with four pending sales and five closed transactions. The pending sales were listed for a median of twenty-nine days and showed a median price of 587k, with only one price reduction. The sold homes in Jefferson County this week show a median sale price of 275k and an average of 270k, the first closing under 300k since late October 2023. Jefferson County might be a great option for those on a tighter budget.

Deschutes County inventory is the largest since August 17, 2022, with no signs of slowing. The increase in available homes has helped buyers tremendously, with significantly more options than last year. Sales this week were up two from this week in 2022. However, judging by the flood of listings, there is a strong chance more homes will linger through the summer, creating more inventory this fall. Buyers looking for opportunities that don't find what they need this summer may have more options this fall than in the last few years. If mortgage rates dip below 7%, I anticipate some of the better deals of the previous housing cycle. Figuring out pricing in today's market can be tricky, so reach out if you have questions about a property you are considering. I am always available to run a detailed analysis to help you make the best decision. There are limited comps in some cases, but with my deep knowledge of our market, I can help with pricing any property in Central Oregon. 

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As we approach peak season, the inventory of single-family homes in all three counties of Central Oregon increased this week. Deschutes County added 45 new listings, Crook County added 7, and Jefferson County's inventory grew by 3. With more options for buyers, pending sales are solid, and the market activity is palatable. While the Federal Reserve may have left rates untouched, reiterating the intention of holding rates higher for longer, Jerome Powell couldn't resist sneaking in some dovish tones in the form of decreased monthly bond sales from its balance sheet from $60B/month to $25B/month, a 58% reduction. The reduction of quantitative tightening from decreased bond roll-off is, in essence, quantitative easing, and Wall Street responded with increases in the stock market and bond yields dropping. This morning, the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 7.19%, with the 10-year Treasury at 4.489%. The defacto quantitative easing orchestrated by the Fed and the Treasury Department essentially waves the white flag on inflation. How much mortgage rates decline remains to be seen, but mortgage rates dipping below 7% will undoubtedly spur activity in the housing market.

This week, pending sales in Deschutes County were sixty-eight, with the median days on the market at eighteen. The median pending sale price was $664,500, and the average was 808k, decreasing from the previous week. Sold homes show a significant decrease at 52, compared to 103 last week, with thirteen median days on the market and a median sale price of $714,500, just $500 less than last week. The median price per square foot of closed sales was $364. While I track price per square foot weekly, I rarely refer to these numbers as the wide variety of homes sold each week changes the number dramatically from house to house. The price per square foot is considerably more meaningful for condos in the same complex, townhomes, or new-construction subdivisions. However, it still isn't my preferred method for evaluating properties. 

Eight pending sales in Crook County reflect a significant decline from the previous week's seventeen and median days on the market of 111. However, three of the eight pending sales were in the Powell Butte area and at higher price points, increasing the median pending sale price significantly from last week to 674k. Closed sales remained strong, with ten this week, and the median sale price was a significant increase over last week at 640k. 

Jefferson County's pending sales increased to eight this week from three last week, with only ten median days on the market and a median pending sale price of 385k. Five properties closed in the county this week, with a median price of 425k and 100 days on the market. The median price reduction for pending sales was -8.21% and -6.94% for the closed properties, but only two homes in each category reduced the price. Two of the five sales in Jefferson County accepted offers above the asking price. Trends are the most critical metric in smaller Jefferson County compared to median price changes because of the smaller data pool. This week, a sold property closed at 21.7% above the asking price, making the median price reduction of all sales a misleading number. 

The increased inventory gives buyers more options, and sales remain strong relative to lending costs. With the median sale price reduction in Deschutes County at a paltry 3.19% and in Crook County at 2.27%, sellers are getting very near the asking price. The low days on the market for sold properties indicate strong buyer demand. 

The most marketable properties hit the market in late spring, leading up to peak season, and knowledgeable buyers are jumping on those opportunities. If inventory continues to build, there is a chance for some great opportunities this fall for properties that missed a buyer over the summer. However, what happens with mortgage rates will have a significant impact. Most buyers in Central Oregon over the last few years will tell you the biggest challenge was finding the right property, not price. The influx of sellers today is creating many good options, and to date, mortgage rates have been operating in a relatively narrow margin consistent with the last several months. I expect continued strength in the Central Oregon housing market through summer. 

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Last year, low inventory suppressed sales, as buyers had so few homes to choose from. This year, however, is an entirely different scenario, with sellers flooding the market with willing buyers ready to go. More listings would theoretically temper prices, but attractive listings are moving quickly with so much pent-up buyer demand. The increase in homes for sale is helping buyers find what they are looking for, and the days listed are plummeting.

This morning, the inventory of single-family homes in Deschutes County experienced a notable surge, jumping from 53 to 841. This is the most significant weekly increase since 2024. Despite this influx of properties, pending sales remained robust, with seventy-one homes placed under contract this week. The days on the market for these properties fell to six, indicating a high demand. One hundred three properties closed, with the median days listed at sixteen. The median list price for active inventory is $824k, $1000 less than last week, while the pending median price is $709k, up 20k from last week. The closed median sale price this week is $715k, up 39k. The active, pending, and closed sales averages are $1,174,168, $837,579, and $857,240.

In Crook County, the inventory of single-family listings declined by six to 114, indicating a demand that surpasses supply. A robust seventeen pending sales occurred this week, with properties spending an average of thirty-one days on the market. Nine transactions closed this week. The median sales price for active, pending, and closed sales were $649k, $498k, and $491k, all increases from the previous week. The averages were $980k, $695k, and $842k, respectively, and are up from the last week. It's important to note that Crook County has a diverse inventory of homes, including those with large acreage and the desirable Brasada Ranch golf community. With the smaller pool of active and closed or pending transactions, it only takes a few higher-end sales to impact the numbers significantly.

The number of single-family homes for sale in Jefferson County remained stable at 80, with three pending sales and five closed transactions. The median days on the market for pending sales were only thirteen, with the closed transactions at twenty-eight. The pending list prices were $455k, $548k, and $625k; the median sold price was $599,500.

The recent economic data has all but eliminated the possibility of a Fed rate cut in 2024, with the narrative from Jerome Powell today likely more hawkish than recent Fed meetings. Dubbed the "Powell Pivot," Jerome Powell talked of tightening financial conditions back in November, doing the work of the Fed in helping to fight inflation. In a fit of irrational exuberance, Wall Street interpreted the "Powell Pivot" to mean up to seven rate cuts in 2024, starting in March, and financial conditions immediately eased through year-end 2023 and the first quarter of 2024. Even the most bullish analysts today call for no more than one rate drop this year, with many more increasing the odds of an increase. The likely scenario is the Fed holding the overnight rate right where it is. For 30-year mortgages, watch the 10-year Treasury for clues about where rates are heading. This morning, the 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage national average is 7.51%, with the 10-year Treasury at 4.665%. As the 10-year Treasury yield increases, so do mortgage interest rates. 

This week's robust activity in Central Oregon illustrates that buyers have accepted higher rates and are responding to increased selection from increased availability. While a significant spike in rates or a pivot to lower rates would likely change the current momentum, stability in the mortgage market, with rates staying higher for longer, is more likely. You can rest assured that Wall Street will be looking for any glimmer of hope or a dovish tone from the Fed today. Jerome Powell has been particularly reticent to speak hawkishly; however, with inflation rising, unemployment low, and GDP flatlining, the Fed is between a rock and a hard place. As I have said, since the end of 2023, I do not expect a rate pivot this year, so strategize your home buying and selling accordingly!

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