My Weekly Central Oregon Real Estate Blog

While some people have been dreaming of the right location for their retirement for years, not everyone has settled on the right destination. If you are unsure of where to retire, you might consider Bend, which has been a popular destination for retirees and has many appealing qualities that made it an attractive place to retire.

To learn more about finding the right home for your retirement years in Bend, contact us any time, and consider these 7 reasons people love retiring in Bend.

1. Outdoor Recreation

Bend is known for its stunning natural surroundings, with plenty of opportunities for outdoor activities like hiking, biking, fishing, skiing, and golfing. If you enjoy an active lifestyle and dream of spending your retirement years exploring outside, Bend offers an abundance of options.

Retirement is the perfect time to pick up new hobbies. Choose a riverfront property that allows you to fly fish from your own property onto the Deschutes River, or perhaps a low maintenance condo near downtown where you can bike to dinner or a farmer's market.

2. Climate

Bend experiences a semi-arid climate with relatively mild winters compared to other parts of Oregon. The region gets plenty of sunshine throughout the year, making it appealing to those seeking a more moderate climate.

An ideal climate is a top priority for many retirees. As you age, you may not want to deal with major winter storms or blazing summer heat anymore, and Bend offers a refuge from both.

3. Culture and Community

Bend has a vibrant arts and cultural scene with various festivals, events, and art galleries. The community is known for being friendly and welcoming, which can be especially important for retirees seeking to build new social connections. It is a happy medium between a small town and a major city, with the tight knit community of a small town and the amenities, culture, and entertainment of a city much larger.

4. Healthcare

The availability of quality healthcare is a crucial consideration for retirees. Bend has several medical facilities and healthcare services, providing adequate support for retirees' healthcare needs.

Even if you do not currently need substantial medicare care, planning ahead for your retirement years in this way will likely benefit you in the future.

5. Cost of Living

While Bend's cost of living is generally higher than the national average, it may be more affordable than some other retirement destinations, such as major cities or coastal areas.

There are also many beautiful communities in the surrounding area, providing access to Bend with a lower real estate cost. Consider Sunriver, Redmond, or La Pine. If you would like to know more about finding the ideal location for you in Central Oregon, contact us any time.

6. Tax Benefits

Oregon does not have a sales tax, which can be a significant benefit for retirees on a fixed income. However, it does have income tax, so it's essential to consider the overall tax situation based on your specific financial situation.

Talk with your accountant in preparation for retirement to determine how to be the most strategic with your investments and income.

7. Proximity to Amenities

Despite its scenic location, Bend is not isolated. It has various amenities, including shopping centers, restaurants, cultural attractions, and recreational facilities. Bend is known for providing a unique combination of scenic beauty and access to outdoor recreation while offering a convenient lifestyle and access to amazing dining and entertainment.

Ready to learn more about homes for sale in Bend? We are here to help, so contact us any time.

Pending sales in Central Oregon last week were robust despite the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hitting 7.26% yesterday, the highest since the rate increases began in 2022. Inventory was flat in Deschutes County at 865 homes listed, up two in Crook County at 156, and up six in Jefferson County at seventy-nine. Deschutes County had a whopping ninety-two pending sales, with Crook County showing a 4x increase over the previous week at twelve and Jefferson County in line with recent volume at three. I heard of slow open houses last weekend, which did not represent actual activity. Typically in late August, people are out enjoying the end of summer and not touring open houses, which is a more casual way to view homes than scheduled showings with a Realtor. 

Of the sixty-nine sales in Deschutes County last week, 30.4% (21) were cash deals, with the balance either conventional, FHA, VA, and one securing private financing. It may be surprising to some that so many people are financing in this rate environment, but the volume of cash deals is a typical mix. 

Looking at this week in August, year-over-year pending sales show a median price increase from 650k to 698k, with the days on the market up one at twenty-seven. Pending sale volume decreased by four to ninety-two, and the average pending sale price dropped six-thousand dollars to 843k. Remember that pending sales in the MLS only show the listing price, not the negotiated price displayed in the sold data.

Comparing the sold data for this week in August reveals a slight decline in the median sold price from 662k to 655k. But, the median days a home was on the market before securing a contract declined from nineteen to fourteen this week. Sold volume increased from fifty-nine to sixty-nine, and the average sale price decreased from 815k to 785k. 

Sales volume was robust in the first half of 2022, while mortgage rates remained relatively low but slowed in the second half as rates increased. Interestingly, on June 16, 2022, the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.11%, dropped to 5.42% on August 14, then spiked to 7.24% by mid-October. However, with rates at that point the highest seen in many years, buyers pulled back to reassess the market, and sales declined. The comparisons to 2022 are narrowing as we get further into 2023, but the year-to-date median sale price this year is still down, now at 650k compared to 695k in 2022. I expect the median sale price to narrow as the year progresses. By year-end 2022, the median sale price was 680k. 

Since rates started ascending last year, there has been a steady drumbeat of a Fed pivot to lower rates once inflation was under control or in the event of a slowing economy. If you trust the most recent CPI numbers, inflation looks to be cooling, but the economy remains strong by many measures. Core inflation (removing food and energy costs) was 4.7% in July 2023, significantly higher than CPI at 3.2%. Crude oil has been rising, the Saudis appear unlikely to pump more, and the strategic petroleum reserve is at alarmingly low levels, meaning gas prices at the pump are likely to increase. To say the economy is complicated is a massive understatement, and there isn't any clear path to a Fed pivot. 

While many mortgage rate buy-down options are available, I suggest paying down the principal during the lower rate period and potentially refinancing into a 15-year mortgage if rates come down. Refinancing to significantly lower rates in the future is looking less and less likely as the Fed has painted itself into a corner with a strong economy and higher prices. 

Many analysts predict the Fed will readjust its inflation target to 3%, and for my analysis, I will leave out the comparisons to inflation calculations from years past. Although, I don't think many people are surprised that the government tweaks the calculations to paint themselves in the best light possible. Unfortunately, even a best-case scenario return to 2% annual inflation locks in the price spikes of the last few years. With most analysts taking recession talks out of the equation and the likelihood of a Fed policy that significantly reduces the supply of currency highly unlikely with a spiraling national debt, today's mix of rates and prices is likely here to stay. I expect mortgage rates to fluctuate between 6% to 7% for some time. 

In the second half of 2020, our country experienced an unprecedented demographic shift that started with work-from-home and continued with many relocating further from cities than ever before. Popular, recreationally focused areas across the West witnessed significant population increases, including Central Oregon. There will always be ups and downs in the housing market, but the chances of everything that has taken place over the last few years unwinding is low. 

However, prices will decrease if the inventory of homes for sale increases significantly and homes linger on the market. With inventory at historic lows and the days on the market barely above two weeks for sold properties, those changes are not in the cards for 2023. The best indication of future prices is the availability of homes for sale. Without a massive increase in homes listed for sale starting in early Spring, the chances of reduced sales prices by summer are almost zero. Mortgage rates might not decrease, but they are unlikely to increase much. All the data points to an increase in home prices in 2024.

As the summer winds down, we are approaching the best time of year for many buyers. Many sellers testing the market all summer are motivated to secure a deal by year-end and are willing to entertain lower offers. Some buyers pull back as the school year begins and winter weather looms. With a 2-1 buy-down, buyers can enjoy a lower rate and potentially refinance into something under 7% when the teaser rate increases. Although especially for first-time buyers or anyone stretched financially, I caution against counting on significantly lower rates soon. Real estate purchases should be long-term investments, and with enough time, Central Oregon remains an excellent choice. 

I can provide an unmatched comparative market analysis, whatever your situation or market view. Not only do I provide up-to-the-minute data on specific neighborhoods and housing market segments, but I also have a spreadsheet with data going back to 1997 to provide a historical perspective. Many of you already rely on the Market Trend reports on my website. Property searches on EnjoyBendLife.com are updated every 15 minutes and emailed daily. Most area searches on my website also include sold data, or you can sign up for a Market Report that will automatically send you information on the active, pending, and sold activity for the neighborhood, zip code, or subdivision of your choice. Please reach out when you need help in Central Oregon!

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On May 29, 2023, the national average for a fixed-rate 30-year mortgage was 6.9%. The high for this credit tightening cycle was late October at 7.13%. The rate yesterday was 7.04%. While rates have been stable recently, and the range above from the low to high only represents a difference of $74 per month on a 600k mortgage, the media has speculated that mortgage interest rates are the culprit for sluggish sales. Undoubtedly, higher rates have impacted many buyers, as well as tighter underwriting requirements. In addition, any upward rate movement seems to stall buyers, particularly threshold changes such as the recent break above 7%. I spoke to many would-be buyers waiting to see how the market will behave. There is consensus amongst a reasonably large percentage of buyers that the market is approaching a correction.

Predicting a price correction is difficult at best, and today it is easy to find contradictory information that proves either a robust economy or a looming collapse. The truth may lie in the middle, but economic reality isn't as easy as averaging extreme perspectives. Nevertheless, market changes take place rapidly and build momentum. This dynamic is the biggest reason to view real estate transactions from a long-term perspective. I have heard some analysts use five years as a minimum timeframe for ownership and longer is better. I encourage any buyer that can afford a purchase, likes the property in question, and has no plans to re-sell in a short time frame to consider any reasonable options strongly. The chances of a home purchased today declining in value over a longer timeframe are remarkably low. In today's economic cycles, downturns are compressed, with dips often lasting for short periods. 

The demographic shift that is still occurring nationwide has Central Oregon on many people's radar. The dynamic has impacted many other mountain communities, resort towns, and desirable locations. The deterioration of many large cities and work-from-home have been significant contributors. A look at the state of commercial real estate gives some insight into the impact of work-from-home. The people I speak to working from home are adamant that they would change careers before returning to an in-office environment. 

The points above may feel like a preamble to prepare you for a market shift, and in fact, there has been a change in recent trends. Whether this week's data portends a decline or a blip will become apparent in the coming weeks. 

This morning in Deschutes County, there are 865 single-family homes listed, an increase of twenty-five since last week. Growing inventory at this time of year is not unheard of, but this significant increase bucks the recent downward trend. As I mentioned, mortgage interest rates have been remarkably stable, but the national news has not been shy about reporting above 7% rates, which may impact buyers. Another data point that could signal deteriorating consumer strength is credit card debt surpassing one trillion dollars for the first time. For reference, this week last August, there were 972 single-family homes listed, so our recent increase in homes for sale is still well below the recent past. 

Over the previous week, there were seventy-six pending sales at a median of 633k and fifteen days on the market. This week last year, there were sixty-five pending sales at 795k and twenty-three days on the market—Sixty-four homes sold this week at a median of 647k, down five from last year. However, last year's median sold price this week was considerably higher at 765k. Week-to-week median sale prices are irrelevant since the mix of sold homes changes dramatically. However, the median sold prices from year-to-date 2022 were 695k compared to this year's 650k. Total sales to date in 2022 were 2713 compared to 2023's sales so far of 1904, a decrease of nearly 30%. Most people I speak to waiting for a market correction are hoping for more than a paltry -6.47% reduction in prices! Remember that the median price of actively listed single-family homes nationwide is 450k. Also, the median list price of actively listed homes this week is 835k, up considerably from last year when the median list price was 749k.

Home sales in 2023 below 1M are down -28.4%, while sales between 1M-2M are down -37.7%. Although sales over 2M are only down -18.5%, the median sale price above 2M has increased from $2,375,000 to $2,422,500. A recent Wall Street Journal article lamented the collapse of the high-end market nationwide, a phenomenon that isn't apparent in Deschutes County. I attribute the relative strength of our high-end market to the demographic shift mentioned earlier. The diversity of high-end properties has as much to do with the increase in median sale prices as market strength, although both factor in. 

I have mentioned in reports this year that I expected the year-over-year comparisons to improve as 2023 progresses. While my opinion hasn't changed, in light of mortgage rates and historically high unaffordability, I am unsure whether we will close the gap entirely. I do not expect total sales to surpass last year without a significant switch in the market dynamics. Considering how hot the Central Oregon housing market was for most of 2022, today's numbers are still solid. 

Presenting the data without spin is a priority, as well as addressing the concerns of many buyers I speak with. I am not bearish regarding Central Oregon housing in the least. However, some economic headwinds could shake up our market. Year to date, the data doesn't show any signs of dramatically increased inventory. Without building inventory and increasing the days listed, it is unreasonable to expect a collapse in home prices. With Labor Day just around the corner and winter weather coming sooner than I care to admit, I do not expect dramatic changes in home prices in Central Oregon this season. While there may be further increases from the Fed, markets are pricing in peak rates today. A pivot in Fed policy to decreasing rates has been pushed further into the future, but most increases are in the past. 

Whether you are ready to buy or sell this season or looking years into the future, I can help you devise a strategy to navigate our market. Don't hesitate to contact me anytime for a personalized approach with up-to-date information you can trust!

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One of the most challenging situations I deal with as a real estate agent is the question or statement that "I'm going to wait and see what the market does." Since I do not have a crystal ball, I can't say whether waiting could work out. Although being data-driven and immersed in our local market daily, I have opinions about the overall trends, even if I do not have any unique ability to predict the overall economy or mortgage interest rates. However, like the stock market, real estate is a long game. No buyer of quality stocks or homes from decades ago who held those assets is in worse shape today. Other than minor blips on the timeline, prices have increased. The exception for housing began in 2008 and, in some cases, equated to a lost decade before home values recovered. For anyone who lived through that period, including myself, it can be challenging to separate the PTSD scars from today's reality. But, unless your financial situation forced a sale during the downturn, almost everyone that held onto their housing investment is better off today. Starting in 2010 and lasting for years in some markets, buyers had a significant advantage that created massive equity over the coming years. Taking an apprehensive stance or anticipating another collapse is understandable, but the calculus becomes a gut reaction without using market data to steer your decision.

This morning in Deschutes County, there are 840 single-family homes listed, twenty-one less than last week and one hundred-thirty less than this week last year. There were ninety-six pending sales this week, the highest number since August 2022, with the median pending price at 674k, down slightly from the previous year's 699k this week. The median sale numbers have been narrowing as 2023 progresses, and as we wind down peak selling season, I anticipate the median sale price increasing as inventory dwindles. Remember that pending sale numbers are just the list price, and negotiated pricing does not show until the transaction closes. There were seventy-five sold homes in Deschutes County this week at a median of 767k, up considerably from this week in 2022 when the median sale price was 690k. By all accounts, the "housing recession" of 2023 is over. In all likelihood, 2023 will be flat or slightly up on 2022 by year-end.

One of the more accurate real estate analysts I follow revealed predictions for home appreciation nationwide in 2024 of 6% in a recent podcast. While the national numbers typically skew from our local data, there isn't any reason to believe Deschutes County will be exempt from price appreciation. 

Low inventory is an accurate predictor of future pricing, and considering the low number of houses available today, there is little reason to believe prices will go anywhere but up in the foreseeable future. For reference, the median sale price of single-family homes in Deschutes County for 2019 was 424k. Our year-to-date median sale price of 650k is a 53.3% increase since 2019. 

There is no question that home prices and mortgage interest rates have conspired to create a historic affordability crunch. Yesterday afternoon the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 7.1%. I also expect the Federal Reserve to raise another 25 basis points by year-end, hopefully, the end of this historical credit tightening cycle. However, the next Fed Open Market Committee meeting isn't for another two months, likely creating a welcome period of relative stability in the markets. When and how quickly the Fed backs off the current rates is yet to be seen. Although, with robust demand for Central Oregon real estate and historically low inventory, rising home prices are the most likely outcome of decreasing rates. 

I regularly grapple with the idea of more expensive homes in Central Oregon and readily admit the concept is hard to comprehend. The factors driving this are entrenched, and any change would require a collusion of events of epic proportions that seems increasingly unlikely. Work-from-home, short-term rentals, demographic shifts for quality of life, and few west coast options comparable to Central Oregon are the significant drivers of today's market dynamics. Factor in that the median list price for single-family homes nationwide is nearly 450k, and Central Oregon prices begin to make more sense. Those choosing Central Oregon as their next destination have little reason to delay moving. 

Lastly, the recent property values in Central Oregon have also impacted the investment market. While rents have accelerated in recent years, there is evidence of growing availability in the rental market and a softening of rents. Cap rates in our market typically fall well below 5% and, in many cases, are in the 3.5% range. Many income properties in desirable locations may provide cap rates and rental history in their marketing. Still, the pricing has more to do with the property's desirability than rental income. On average, short-term rental properties in Bend have more than a 50% vacancy rate, making the location a vital component of any evaluation. 

I do not share these numbers to deter investors but to frame our market in a way that allows an accurate analysis. Whether you are looking for a property to call home or an investment, knowing what is likely in terms of price or a reasonable local cap rate is essential. Waiting for something improbable to occur leads to a poor outcome, and I would be remiss if I didn't provide an accurate view of today's market. 

An individually tailored analysis is the first step to any decision, and I am always available to provide an unparalleled market analysis for your specific goals. Please let me know if you think I am wrong about any of my suppositions! I am intimately familiar with our local data and welcome any conversation that might improve my overall perspective. My goal as an agent is to be so good at my job that you couldn't imagine working with anyone else. Reach out anytime to put that to the test!

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Every Wednesday morning, when compiling the data from the previous week, my preconceived notions of where the market is heading are challenged. While looking at homes and evaluating our inventory daily, I also read a lot of national news about data trends and speculation about the economy. Like most, the information influences my opinions, and it is easy to believe the market is moving in directions that do not align with reality. Unlike the information I present, which is accurate in real-time, most of the national data on real estate is thirty to forty-five days old. I am keenly aware that the national data is stale, and I prepare myself for the local data I pull from our MLS to challenge any beliefs I may have taken on during the week. This week, I believed signs of the market slowing with higher mortgage interest rates could develop. The data shows my assumption to be completely inaccurate. 

Jefferson County's inventory of single-family homes dropped by two, now at seventy-three, while Crook County increased by seven to 156. Deschutes County has 861 single-family homes listed, an increase of one. This week last year, there were 957  single-family homes listed in Deschutes County, with two more weeks of increased inventory before the seasonal decline. The inversion of inventory numbers year-over-year has only increased, putting pressure on buyers waiting for relief. This week's median pending sale price in 2022 was 660k. Despite higher mortgage interest rates, the median sale price for the previous seven days was 710k. While yesterday's national average for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage was 7.04%, rates through this year have fluctuated between 6-7%. The rate volatility has been head-spinning, but the range has been remarkably consistent. Nonetheless, buyers have seemingly embraced higher rates, with ninety-four pending sales in Deschutes County this week, the highest since late August 2022.

Speaking of rates, I believe the Fed will raise another twenty-five basis points today. I also expect another twenty-five basis point hike before year-end. Beyond that is anyone's guess. 

The high sales volume and low inventory have combined to create firm prices despite higher mortgage rates. A $50,000 increase in the median pending sale price is not insignificant. I expect strong sales through Labor Day as any buyers biding their time are now taking action on the available inventory. In this market, I have often been evaluating what a property might sell for today, only to see the home be placed under contract before a client can make an offer. Questioning prices is a healthy exercise with value, but conditions today leave little time to ponder. Presenting low-ball offers in today's market can backfire when other buyers are more than willing to offer the asking price.

With market conditions still strongly favoring sellers, knowing how many buyers are evaluating a particular home is impossible. It is also difficult to predict potential sale prices with so many willing buyers chomping at the bit to secure a property. When a property that fits your needs comes up, presenting an offer in the early days of a new listing is a great first step. In many cases, coming in under asking isn't a dealbreaker, but ideally, the price would elicit a counteroffer. Unfortunately, offers so low that a seller rejects them completely don't give any insight into a seller's temperament. Begging back after a rejected offer requires a price and terms that might be even higher than what could have been negotiated by starting closer to the asking price. For reference, the pending sales in Deschutes County this week had a median price reduction of -6.13%. There is no question some properties have aggressive price tags and may take more significant cuts, but that is the exception, not the rule.

With the unaffordability crunch at all-time highs, it is understandable that buyers are having difficulty wrapping their heads around prices. Testing the market with lower offers is not a bad strategy, but in my experience, buyer fatigue sets in rapidly, as nobody likes multiple rejections. Regular readers of my reports can guess that this is where I espouse the benefits of a long-term view of housing. With equal amounts of reporting predicting a solid economy and catastrophic doom, it is impossible to figure out what comes next. The recent strength in the equity markets seems to be thumbing its nose at the likes of Peter Schiff predicting doom. At the same time, I enjoy reading "Dr. Doom's" analysis, but living like Chicken Little can be exhausting. 

Our economy and the housing markets have become increasingly complex. While there may be issues of concern, having the stars align perfectly to create a significant drawdown in home prices has proven elusive. I recently read that there are 60% more short-term rental properties than homes for sale nationwide. Conditions in the large west coast cities are not improving, and the exodus to areas like Central Oregon continues. With commercial properties in San Francisco seeing nearly 30% vacancy rates and work-from-home here-to-stay for high-income employees, buyer demand has not subsided. Whatever your long-term view of real estate, none of these factors will significantly impact home prices in 2023. Many analysts are predicting further home price increases in 2024. Over the last several years in Central Oregon, waiting has proven costly. 

The flip side of strong buyer demand is a strong seller's market. However, accurate pricing is imperative to maximize your sale. The tools on EnjoyBendLife.com are second to none but are not a replacement for my local knowledge. If you are considering selling your home, allow me to run a detailed market analysis to see if my price opinion aligns with yours. I am available and always happy to share my perspective. 

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Bend is a great place to raise a family, with several neighborhoods that are well-suited for young families, providing a combination of family-friendly amenities, quality schools, safety, and a sense of community. If you are searching for homes for sale in Bend, contact us any time, and consider one of these neighborhoods in your search.

Choosing a Neighborhood in Bend for Your Family

Understanding your own wants and needs as you look for a home for your family will help immensely in the house hunting process. Each of these neighborhoods, and others, offer different features that may be a top priority for you. Take some time to ask yourself questions like these to help guide your decision making process:

• How long a commute am I willing to have?
• Which schools would I like to be close to?
• How important is walkability to my family?
• What community amenities do I want to have access to?
• Do I want to live in a neighborhood with an HOA?

Northwest Crossing

Located on the west side of Bend, Northwest Crossing is a desirable master planned community known for its family-friendly atmosphere. The neighborhood features parks, playgrounds, and walking paths, creating ample opportunities for outdoor activities. It offers a strong sense of community with regular events and even a farmer's market. Residents of Northwest Crossing also enjoy convenient access to excellent public, charter, and private schools in the area.

Larkspur

Larkspur is a newer neighborhood on the southeast side of Bend, offering a mix of single-family homes and townhouses. The community features parks, open spaces, and a community pool, providing ample opportunities for recreation. Larkspur is close to schools, shopping centers, and medical facilities, making it convenient for families.

River West

Located along the Deschutes River, River West is an established neighborhood that offers a mix of older homes and newer developments. The area provides access to parks, trails, and recreational opportunities like fishing and kayaking, while also being  in close proximity to downtown Bend and its amenities. This is a desirable neighborhood for families who want to enjoy the best of both worlds with restaurants and shops  just as close as wide open scenic areas.

Old Farm District

Situated in the southwest part of Bend, the Old Farm District is a popular neighborhood for families. It offers a mix of older and newer homes, with tree-lined streets and parks. The neighborhood is close to schools, shopping centers, and recreational facilities, making it convenient for families with children of all ages.

Mountain View

Mountain View is located in the northeast part of Bend and is known for its affordability and family-friendly environment. The neighborhood features parks, schools, and a community center with activities for all ages. Mountain View is well-connected to amenities, including shopping centers and medical facilities.

Tetherow

Tetherow is a more upscale neighborhood situated on the west side of Bend. It offers luxury homes and community amenities that include a golf course, fitness center, and restaurants. The neighborhood has a strong sense of community and is located near schools and outdoor recreational opportunities.

Ready to learn more about finding homes for sale in one of these Bend neighborhoods? Contact us any time.

This morning there are 860 single-family homes listed for sale in Deschutes County, -9.2% less than this week last year. The median list price of the active inventory is 840k, up from 778k. The median days listed this year is forty-seven, up eleven from last year. At this time last year, the market was slowing after a spike in homes for sale that corresponded with rising mortgage interest rates. However, the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 5.87% compared to 6.88% yesterday afternoon. Still, today's market has been remarkably stable compared to last year, when sellers adjusted to fewer buyers than in 2021 and the first half of 2022. 

Once the housing market began the typical spring increase in activity this year, the sales volume remained consistent with sales from the second half of 2022. There is little doubt that higher mortgage interest rates have sidelined many buyers, reducing sales from the 2021 and early 2022 frenetic peaks. Although, the lack of inventory has been a contributing factor. 

Year-to-date 2022, there were 2462 sold single-family homes in Deschutes County compared to 1674 this year. But, those comparisons are very much apples and oranges when considering the market conditions and buyer sentiment. From July 20, 2022, through year-end, there were 1667 sales at a median of 661k and twenty-two days on the market. The second half of 2022 looks strikingly similar to the first half of this year, with 1674 sales to date at a median of 645k and twenty days on the market for closed transactions. Barring any market-shocking events between now and year-end, I anticipate approximately 3500 sales for the year. 

For perspective, my data for Deschutes County sales goes back to 1997, showing 2003 as the first year sales exceed 3000 total transactions. That was the beginning of the housing bubble of that era, and interestingly mortgage interest rates mid-year were 5.26%. After a significant slowing in late 2006, the next years with total sales above 3000 were 2010-2013. From 2014-2019 sales were in the 4000s before the massive spikes of 2020-2021, with sales exceeding 5000. Last year's total sales were 4130, and mortgage interest rates mid-year were 5.7%.

Smoothing the data from 1997 through today is of little utility as market conditions, population growth, and the entire socioeconomic landscape has changed dramatically over the years in Central Oregon. Commercial property vacancy rates in large west coast cities are approaching 30%, and working from home is a part of the lexicon previously reserved for sick days. I frequently hear people talk about returning to a "normal" market, and many of the data points above illustrate how difficult it is to identify what that means. Housing is in continuous transition, new residents are targeting Central Oregon, and factors like short-term rentals have clouded market dynamics. 

So, what is normal today? While I cannot answer that meaningfully, I suggest focusing on your long-term goals and working with what is available. Recently mortgage interest rates have been a significant challenge, and it is undoubtedly correct that there have been some short-term spikes. However, the market has been stable for the last several months, and conditions are unlikely to change dramatically up or down. Typically, the median sales price reduction falls at -5%, which looks to continue. That doesn't mean that every home is subject to a five-percent decrease, but it does give some insight into home sale prices relative to the asking price.

In the stock market, there has been a lot of talk about decreased corporate earnings reported in recent data. However, that data is all stale, and stock analysts focus on future earnings. The reduced earnings reported today have already been priced in and do not indicate things to come. Most analysts expect growth in 2024 and beyond, which also applies to housing. It is understandable to be concerned about overpaying for real estate, and careful due diligence is an important step. But, worrying that today's prices will collapse soon is not supported by the data or the overall economy. Buyers and sellers choosing to remain in Central Oregon may have important considerations that make the timing of a sale or purchase essential. However, for out-of-town buyers looking to make Central Oregon home, finding the right property is more of a concern than price. Anyone actively searching for a property in Central Oregon can speak to the diversity of our inventory and the difficulty in finding the perfect home. When the right house comes up, waiting might not be the best option.

My knowledge of Central Oregon housing, neighborhoods, and market trends is unmatched, and I can help you find your perfect home. I regularly provide detailed analyses of specific properties for buyers and sellers looking for assistance evaluating our market. If you need broader breakdowns of the market, my website has all the tools you need to do your own research. Market Trend Reports provide detailed analyses of the active inventory by zip code, and many of my property search pages include sold data to keep you abreast of recent activity. Or, use the home valuation tool to give you an immediate price range for a specific property. Market Trend Reports are updated weekly, and the other data on EnjoyBendLife.com is updated every fifteen minutes! Whether you call me or use the tools available on my website, I always strive to provide everything needed to make the best decision for your needs. 

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In the ever-evolving world of real estate, the year 2023 brings a fresh set of priorities for homebuyers on the hunt for their dream properties. With diverse preferences influenced by location, lifestyle, and personal needs, it is crucial to stay attuned to the latest trends in amenities that buyers commonly seek. In this quest for the perfect abode, certain features have emerged as top priorities, capturing the attention and interest of prospective homeowners. Whether it's a sustainable and energy-efficient living environment, a designated space for remote work, or a seamless integration of smart home technology, the desires of buyers are transforming the landscape of real estate.

Additionally, the significance of outdoor living spaces and wellness-oriented amenities has witnessed a notable surge, reflecting a growing emphasis on balancing relaxation, health, and connection with nature. By exploring these sought-after amenities, both buyers and sellers can gain valuable insights into the evolving landscape of real estate preferences in 2023.

Top 5 Amenities Buyers Are Looking For In 2023

#1 Energy-Efficient Features

With an increased focus on sustainability and environmental consciousness, buyers are seeking properties with energy-efficient features. These can include solar panels, energy-efficient appliances, LED lighting, smart thermostats, and double-glazed windows.

#2 Home Office or Flexible Workspace

The shift towards remote work and flexible schedules has made dedicated home offices or flexible workspaces highly desirable. Buyers are looking for properties that offer a designated space for work or the potential to create one easily.

#3 Outdoor Living Spaces

The COVID-19 pandemic has emphasized the importance of having outdoor areas within the property. Buyers are seeking homes with balconies, patios, or gardens that provide a space for relaxation, entertainment, and connection with nature.

#4 Smart Home Technology

The integration of smart home technology continues to be a popular amenity. Buyers are interested in properties equipped with features like smart lighting, security systems, thermostats, door locks, and voice-activated assistants that enhance convenience, comfort, and security.

#5 Wellness Amenities

Health and wellness have gained significant importance, leading buyers to prioritize properties with amenities that support a healthy lifestyle. These can include fitness centers, yoga studios, saunas, pools, walking trails, or proximity to parks and recreational facilities.

In Conclusion

It is important to acknowledge that buyer preferences in 2023 are not a one-size-fits-all scenario. Location, market trends, and individual needs play a significant role in shaping the priorities of potential homeowners. To navigate the dynamic real estate market successfully, thorough market research becomes indispensable. By delving into the intricacies of a specific area, real estate professionals can gain a comprehensive understanding of the demands and desires of buyers.

This knowledge enables them to align their offerings with the specific amenities that resonate most with potential homeowners, ultimately maximizing their chances of satisfying their client's needs and securing successful transactions. Whether it involves adapting to the growing emphasis on sustainability, accommodating the demands of remote work, or capitalizing on the latest trends in technology and wellness, staying attuned to buyer preferences is key. By continuously assessing and adapting to the changing preferences of buyers, real estate professionals can stay ahead of the curve and create opportunities for both buyers and sellers in the dynamic world of real estate.

For comprehensive details and an in-depth exploration of the thriving real estate market in Bend, I invite you to reach out to me at any time. With a wealth of knowledge and experience in the local property landscape, I'm eager to provide you with valuable insights to assist you in making informed decisions

Surprisingly for this time of year, the inventory of single-family homes for sale in Deschutes County dropped thirty-two, now at 823. That is sixty-four less than this week in 2022. Last year at this time, inventory was still climbing before peaking at 972 on August 10. Remember that less than 1000 homes listed in Deschutes County are historically low, a statistic that is easy to see graphically in the charts of my Market Trend Reports. 

Single-family inventory in Crook County increased by six to 147, and Jefferson County saw an increase of two, now with seventy-six active listings. The median price of active listings was 595k and 455k, respectively. With several weeks of summer remaining, there is a chance for some spikes in the number of homes listed, and buyers actively looking should stay on top of the market if something great becomes available. While the days sold properties are listed has increased slightly, there is still little time to waste if you want to secure a contract on a newly listed home. 

Another surprising number is the median price of active listings, now at 849k, the highest since I started tracking the data in April 2022. The median price of pending listings was down this week at 600k, but a significant eighty-eight homes are under contract. The median sale price of the sixty-three closings was 760k and averaged 867k.

Sales thus far in 2022 of 1596 reflect a -32.4% decline from 2022, while the median sold price of 642k is -7.2% less than 2022 year-to-date sales. Days on the market are up in 2023 to twenty-one from only five last year, and the median price reduction for sold properties is -5.4%, an increase from 2022's -3.3%. 

I've mentioned previously that the data indicates an inversion from last year's number for the second half of 2023, and with inventory already declining, I expect that prediction will hold. However, with the 30-year fixed-rate national average mortgage rate yesterday at 7.09%, the cost of credit may take a bite out of prices. While inflation came in lower than expected at 3% for the latest CPI print, I still expect the Fed to raise the overnight rate in the upcoming July meeting by another 25 basis points in light of other strong economic indicators. 

With housing affordability suffering from high mortgage rates and sticky prices, what will happen to home prices if the Fed pivots to lower rates? I don't expect that pivot to occur this selling season, but if low inventory persists and rates decrease, there is every reason to believe home prices will increase. How much rates might decrease after a Fed pivot is uncertain, but for those who can afford today's credit terms, prices may be appealing before another price surge occurs. 

Comparing mortgage payments in different scenarios shows some of the potential for saving in a refinance compared to waiting for lower rates. Using today's rate of 7% for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage on a 500k purchase price, with 20% down, $3100 of annual property tax, and $1000 of homeowners insurance would be ~$3000 per month. Using the same criteria with a 5% mortgage rate would decrease the payment to $2500 per month. Although, sticking with a 5% rate and increasing the purchase price to 600k brings the monthly payment to $2900. A 20% increase in the purchase price would be significant, but in a low inventory environment not unheard of. It is impossible to know when (or if) we will see rates at 5%, but a lower price today would equate to an annual savings of $6000 with a refinance at potentially lower rates. The selection of appropriate homes is a significant factor in these calculations since it is impossible to know what prices and the value of your dollar will bring in the future. But, using the data from the last decade in Central Oregon, betting on a refinance to lower rates has a better chance for success than hoping for a price collapse.

There is much more to purchasing a home than crunching numbers, and I regularly evaluate all aspects of home purchases. One of the important pieces of the puzzle I provide my clients is the research and information gathering for potential options. As a real estate professional and licensed Principal Broker in Oregon, I have access to the tools necessary to evaluate every aspect of listing or purchasing a home. My intimate knowledge of neighborhoods, trail networks, proximity to schools, and other important parts of helping you find the perfect spot are extensive. Whether you plan to buy this month or in the next several years, please don't hesitate to use me as a resource for valuable information about Central Oregon!

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I hope you all had a great Fourth of July! Whether that was an extended weekend or just a pause during a busy week, there is much to celebrate at the midpoint of another year. Independence means many different things to different people. Yet, in the context of my report, I've witnessed the freedom of people moving to Central Oregon to begin a life in an area that allows for abundant sunshine, recreation, and community. Whatever your vision for life in this corner of the world, I wish you every success. 

From a real estate perspective, the Fourth of July marks the beginning of a shift in the market. In just two months, kids will return to school, and the peak of the selling season will be behind us. Over the next several weeks, price reductions will increase as sellers whose listings have lingered on the market adjust in hopes of finding a buyer before the end of the year. As always, if a home has been on the market for some time, now is a perfect time to make a lower offer. 

At this time last year, the inventory of homes for sale began to increase significantly from extreme lows due to buyers' pulling back based on economic uncertainty. While the economy has been surprisingly robust, it hasn't been immune to changes. However, many of those changes have barely put a dent in the housing market of Central Oregon. The market is stronger today in many ways than last year. Whether that strength continues through the year's second half remains to be seen. 

This morning in Deschutes County, there are 855 single-family homes listed, six more than this week last year. There were seventy pending sales the previous week compared to seventy-seven last year and seventy-eight sales compared to ninety in 2022. These numbers are very similar, considering how the market behaves during the holiday week. Although, some differences stood out, in particular prices.

First, the comparison to mortgage rates is striking. Last year, many buyers I spoke with were very concerned about rising rates. After years of extremely low rates, 5.68% for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage on July 4, 2022, was shocking. That was a low point after a spike to 6.11% in June before a peak in October to 7.22%. The rates and corresponding uncertainty slowed buyer demand, and inventory began to increase. According to Mortgage News Daily, on July 3, 2023, the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 7.03%. Seeing activity that nearly matches last year when rates today are more than one and a quarter points higher is surprising. But, buyers seem to have adjusted to more expensive credit and continue snapping up homes. 

If you only considered mortgage interest rates, it would be an easy assumption that home prices have fallen. However, the opposite is true. This week in 2022, the 849 active listings had a median price of 795k, 730k for pending sales, and 680k for sold homes. The median price reduction for sold properties during that week was -5.48%. This week, the 855 active listings show a median of 835k, 706k for pending sales, and 765k for closed sales, and the median price reduction of the closed sales is -4.41%. While the available inventory may be similar to last year, the levels are historically low and not enough to temper prices. View the Market Trend Reports on EnjoyBendLife.com for a chart showing how our current inventory measures up to years past. 

Year-to-date sales for 2023 single-family homes in Deschutes County are 1520 compared to 2279 last year. However, all indications show that the gap is narrowing as the year progresses. If sales remain strong or increase, expect prices to do the same. 

One factor influencing prices is the condition of homes for sale. Many buyers were willing to take on projects at lower interest rates and a calmer overall market. Today, many buyers are spending their resources up front, leaving little left for renovations. Not to mention that the contractors of Central Oregon are spread thin, making timelines for improvements hard to pin down. Material prices also play a role in the renovation equation. As you sort through the available homes for sale, it is clear that many of the properties lingering on the market have some challenges. It stands to reason that more turnkey homes will sell at a higher price, and this is not just a Central Oregon phenomenon. As older sellers choose to downsize or move on, I expect more properties to list that are dated or need significant repairs and improvements. As always, there is an opportunity for anyone willing or skilled at renovation projects!

Peak summer may not be a great time to find available contractors, but many builders and remodel experts have more time in the fall and winter. For buyers with the ability to delay moving into a home and the means of financing a renovation project, there are great opportunities available. Despite the challenges, the three keys to real estate are location, location, location, and homes in great places still sell quickly. 

Of the seventy pending sales last week, the median days listed was fifteen, identical to this week last year. Not every home sells quickly, but in today's market, you need to assume that many buyers are considering every property available. Housing prices can be irrationally aggressive, so contact me anytime for a market analysis. I have deep knowledge of the inventory and Central Oregon housing market and can send you comps and a price range to help you determine a strategy. A knowledgeable real estate professional on your side is more important than ever!

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