My Weekly Central Oregon Real Estate Blog

Even as the market settles down a bit with an increase in interest rates, many homeowners selling a home in Bend are receiving multiple offers shortly after listing. With the right marketing strategy and proper pricing, you can reasonably expect to see a lot of interest in your home within a short period of time. To find out what you need to know before listing your home, contact us any time.

If you end up in a situation with multiple offers for your home, here's what you should keep in mind when choosing the offer to accept. It comes down to more than just the offered purchase price.

Purchase Price

This is the simplest criterion for determining which offer to choose. The highest offer is likely to catch you attention, but remember the actual purchase price is only one of the financial factors you should consider. Also keep in mind whether they are asking you to include any furniture or other features of the home, asking for you to cover some of the closing costs, or have any other special requests that may offset the higher purchase price.

Buyer Funding

Even if the amount the buyers offer is the same, the strength of their funding may lead you to prefer one over the other. A buyer that is offering all cash is much more secure than a first time buyer with a 3% down payment. It is not always the case, but consider a situation like this: you accept an offer for $800,000, but the home appraises for $750,000. A buyer who is offering all cash is able to move forward anyway, but the buyer putting just 3% down must either drastically increase their down payment or lower the purchase price.

Sometimes, your buyers' funding scenarios will not be so drastically different, but take a look and consider whether one seems to be coming from a stronger financial position.

Contingencies

Most offers will come with at least some contingencies. They might include:

• An appraisal contingency, which is usually required by lenders to prove that the value of the home is comparable to the price being offered. This protects the buyer (or their lender) from ending up upside down on a property.
• Inspection contingency, allows the buyer to back out of the contract without penalty if the home inspection reveals a problem with the home that they do not want to deal with.
• Seller's contingency, saying they can only secure funding or move forward with the purchase if they are able to sell their current home first.

Timeline

The timeline of the sale may end up being even more significant than the purchase price or another financial factor. Finding a buyer that can work with your timeline means not having to deal with rent backs, storage units, and other inconveniences.

Take a look at when each buyer is able to close. Depending on your situation, you may prefer a shorter or longer escrow period, so one is not necessarily better than the other. After determining when you want to move out, take a look at the offers and rule out any that won't work with your desired moving timetable.

Miscellaneous Factors

Finally, you need to consider unique extra factors that may matter to you. In some cases, the criteria listed above may not lead you to an obvious choice. The purchase price, contingencies, and timeline may all be pretty similar and leave you feeling torn.

This is when you should take a look at other factors. This might include:

• An escalation clause, where a buyer is willing to outbid competing offers up to a certain point.
• An offer to cover some of your closing costs
• Being willing (and able, based on funding) to waive an appraisal
• Offering a rent back without charging you rent

Ready to learn more about how to sell your house in Bend? We can help you prepare the home to put its best foot forward, pricing it well to sell quickly and attract your ideal buyer. Contact us any time to learn more.

The lack of homes for sale in Central Oregon is no more apparent than in the less populated counties of Crook and Jefferson, where the inventory of single-family homes this week are 133 and seventy, respectively, an increase of one for each county over last week. With so few homes available, it isn't surprising that of the three homes sold in Crook County, the days on the market were one, two, and seven, with all three homes selling at the list price. Three of the six closings in Jefferson County sold for less than full price at a median reduction of -6.38%. Available homes for sale in Crook and Jefferson Counties are nearly identical to this time last year.

In Deschutes County, there are 739 single-family homes listed, up seventeen from last week. This week in 2022, there were 705 homes listed in Deschutes County, but that number jumped to 766 in the third week of June. I anticipate the year-over-year comparisons will flip next week based on the slow pace of new listings. Pending sales this week are up 31k from last year at a median of 739k for the seventy-five sales and a median price reduction of only -4.08%. At this time last year, the median price reduction was -4.96% and over 6% before the end of July. An expected pause in rate hikes from the Fed should calm markets slightly, but all of the strong sales and firm prices are happening despite the 30-year national average for a conventional fixed-rate mortgage at 6.98% yesterday afternoon. Mortgage rates at this time last year were nearly a full point lower than today, illustrating just how strong buyer demand remains. Total sales this year to date are down 36.6%, and while I do not expect that we will surpass last year's sales volume, the gap should narrow in the second half of the year. 

The Consumer Confidence Index is a tool for predicting market trends, released on the last Tuesday of every month. A number higher than 100 indicates consumers overall are optimistic about the economy, with numbers below indicating pessimism. The numbers for May were 102.3, down 4.1 from May 2022. The correlation between consumer confidence and real estate is uneven at best, and you could make a strong argument that declining confidence is a driver of demand for Central Oregon Housing. It takes few new, qualified, motivated buyers to keep our prices firm, which is a consistent theme for our market. However, at this time last year, despite stronger consumer confidence, buyers pulled back as the uncertainty of Fed rate hikes and the impact on the market were unknown. The dip in prices and home sellers' willingness to negotiate was short-lived, and prices were accelerating by March of this year. Whether the predictions for more Fed increases before year-end come true remains to be seen, but any reluctance from buyers seems to be in the rear-view mirror. Granted, higher mortgage rates have sidelined many, but enough buyers are engaged to keep prices firm and even increasing. The appeal of living in Central Oregon from out-of-town buyers is strong, with most seeing the light at the end of the tunnel on rising mortgage rates. If you can afford your mortgage today, a refinance down the road will only make your home more affordable. For most buyers, the bigger issue is finding the right property; when it comes up, they jump at the chance!

Constrained inventory today is a strong predictor of prices in the future. Based on the 2023 trends, there is every reason to believe 2024 home prices will remain strong and may accelerate depending on inventory levels. Unquestionably there are some concerning events in the overall economy, but the national economic engine is a beast not easily deterred. The stock market has outperformed expectations, making the BTFD investors (look up the acronym!) look like prescient beings. If our housing market is this strong in an uncertain economic climate, what will happen when the uncertainty gives way to increasing optimism? I still talk to buyers waiting for a collapse in home prices, and I completely understand many of the concerning issues. However, today's data does not reflect a coming apocalypse, and over the last few years, waiting has been a wash at best. Like a skipping vinyl record, this is the part where I espouse the benefits of a long-term vision in real estate! Asking anyone who purchased a home in the last ten years if they regret the price they paid should illustrate the point. While refinancing into lower rates might still be a couple of years in the future for today's buyers, where will the prices be with continued population growth and lower rates? Undoubtedly today's market is challenging, but for those that can navigate our current affordability, now might be a better time to buy than many realize. 

No matter your views on the housing market, I am here to help. Please feel free to reach out anytime for help strategizing or real estate needs. I approach every client request with individual analysis and the expert attention you deserve. 

Click here for the full report.

As you plan the renovations and upgrades you would like to do to your home in Bend, consider how you can benefit not just yourself, but the planet, too. Owning a home in Bend presents the opportunity to do good to the earth while making homeownership easier on your wallet and updating your home so that you enjoy it more.

Check out these 5 ways to reduce your carbon footprint by updating your home in Bend.

1. Upgrade your insulation

Making sure you have a well-insulated home is one of the best ways to be responsible with your energy sources. When your home is well insulated, it will take less energy to heat or cool, costing you less and being gentler on the planet. There are many homes in Bend that have lovely historic charm but are ready for an insulation upgrade. This is a significant upfront investment but will save you lots of money down the road.

Upgrading insulation in a home offers several compelling reasons for homeowners. Firstly, improved insulation enhances energy efficiency by reducing heat transfer, leading to lower heating and cooling costs. It creates a more comfortable indoor environment by maintaining consistent temperatures and minimizing drafts. Effective insulation also helps reduce carbon footprint, contributing to a greener and more sustainable lifestyle.

Additionally, upgrading insulation can increase the resale value of a home, as energy-efficient features are highly sought after by buyers. Moreover, it improves soundproofing, reducing noise transmission between rooms and from the outside. Overall, upgrading insulation is a wise investment that provides long-term financial savings, comfort, environmental benefits, and increased property value.

2. Install smart lighting

Smart lighting is a genius way to save energy. If you are like many people, you have memories of your parents constantly reminding you to switch off the lights until you became the one paying attention to lights left on in an unoccupied room. When you install smart lighting, you never have to worry about leaving the house with lights on, wasting money and energy. Your lights can be controlled by being motion activated (automatically shutting off when there is no activity in the room) or being attached to a control panel on your phone.

Smart lighting is an advanced technology-driven solution that enhances energy efficiency in homes. It involves integrating lighting systems with sensors, intelligent controls, and smart devices to optimize energy consumption. By utilizing energy-efficient LED bulbs, smart lighting reduces electricity usage while maintaining high-quality illumination. Automation and scheduling features enable lights to turn on and off based on predetermined schedules or triggers, preventing unnecessary energy waste.

Dimming capabilities allow for ambiance creation and further energy savings. Remote and voice control features enable effortless management of lights from anywhere, ensuring they are not left on unintentionally. Motion and presence detection ensure lights activate when needed and turn off in unoccupied areas. Integration with other smart home systems maximizes efficiency by coordinating lighting with factors like occupancy and daylight levels. Energy monitoring provides insights into consumption patterns, aiding in further optimization. Smart lighting transforms homes into energy-efficient spaces while enhancing convenience.

3. Design an edible landscape plan

Take a look at your outdoor space and consider where you might be able to plant an edible garden. While the Bend climate does not provide a long season for growing your own food, you can grow some to enjoy fresh and to preserve for the rest of the year.

This is a great way to take full advantage of your property, reducing your dependence on the grocery store and nationwide supply chain.

4. Upgrade to energy-efficient appliances

As you upgrade the appliances in your home, be sure to choose energy-efficient options. This is a no-brainer for your budget, as the cost to buy an energy-efficient appliance will be virtually the same as an appliance that is not as efficient. While your home may not need new appliances right away, keep this in mind as you find that your kitchen is ready to be updated or you need to replace your water heater.

5. Invest in renewable energy

Investing in renewable energy, like adding solar panels to your home, will pay off in multiple ways. Of course, it is better for the environment to rely on renewable energy sources, but it is also better for your wallet. After the initial investment, you will quickly see a decrease in your energy expenses. Depending on what you add to your home, there may also be tax benefits for you.

Some renewable energy upgrades can also help you sell your house in Bend. Your potential buyers will be drawn to the home that is better for the planet and the budget.

To learn more about owning your home in Bend, contact us any time.

Mortgage rates backed off of recent highs, with the 30-year average for a fixed-rate conventional loan at 6.89% yesterday afternoon, unchanged from Monday. This week is bereft of new data, with the Fed in a blackout period ahead of next week's meeting and the CPI numbers coming out on Tuesday. As a result, I expect mortgage rates to remain stable through the week, an anomaly for the last year. 

Single-family homes for sale in Deschutes County increased by thirty-six to 722 listings 922, including manufactured homes on land, condos, townhouses, and fractional ownership properties. Our inventory is still slightly ahead of last year's week, while the median listing price is higher, and the pending and sold price is marginally lower. Comparing the weekly median price of the active inventory is valuable, but the pending and sold numbers change dramatically weekly. Using a more extended timeline helps to smooth those numbers, and the median closed sale price for the year-to-date  2022 was 695k, compared to 635k this year. I expect the active inventory volume and possibly the median sale price to invert from last year's numbers by July. Still, sales volume is down significantly, primarily due to higher interest rates. Year-to-date sales volume for 2022 was 1914 for single-family homes compared to 1216 in 2023, a decrease of -36.5%. You may recall that last week's median sale price was $718,750, slightly less than last week in 2022, illustrating the significant changes in those numbers week-to-week. However, pending sales last week rebounded to eighty-five, fourteen more than last week and two more than this week in 2022. We will unlikely surpass total sales from last year, but the gap is narrowing as the year progresses. Considering the sharp decline in activity through the second half of 2022, I expect the year-over-year comparisons to narrow. 

It would be understandable to attribute the reduced sales price to less expensive homes or significant price reductions, but the median price drop of sold homes last week was -4%, the same as last year. Interestingly, the sales below 500k are only down -6% year over year, with sales above $2M down -27.4%, both better than the total market comparisons. While the median sale price below 500k dropped slightly to 430k, a drop of 19k, the homes sold over $2M show an increase in the median sale price of 150k, now at $2.5M. However, the middle of the market shows radical sales volume reductions from last year, with the 500k-$1M segment down -40% and the $1M-$2M segment down -48%. Neither the run-up in prices starting in 2020 nor the reduction in sales volume this year has impacted our market evenly. Also, likely attributable to the demographics relocating to Central Oregon, home prices in the high-end are firm. Constrained supply is another contributing factor to high prices. 

By all accounts, the Fed is most likely to pause on rate hikes next week, although the signals are more complicated to predict than at any point since they began hiking rates last year. There is a chance of another 25 basis points hike, albeit a small one. However, if the CPI prints higher than expected, there is a strong chance that more hikes will happen before the end of the year. It is important to remember that increases in the overnight rate charged between banks do not directly correlate with mortgage rates. There are also many different rate buy-down options and strategies to keep mortgage rates closer to 6% than seven, or even less. Interest rate buy-downs fund with pre-paid interest often comes from a seller credit at closing. Whether you employ this tactic or pay the buy-down costs out of pocket, working closely with your lender to calculate the timeline for a return on your buy-down investment is essential. If the ROI is ten years out, it is likely not worth the up-front costs since there is a strong chance most buyers will either refinance in that time or even sell. If this sounds complicated, contact me or call your favorite lender to learn how these tools could benefit you. 

One more factor to remember is the rapid pace of the market today. Pending sales last week had median days on the market of fifteen and sold properties of ten. Multiple offers are increasingly common, and being pre-approved by a local lender is essential to giving yourself a chance. I have also noticed more desirable listings coming to market purposely priced low to create a bidding competition. In these situations, time is of the essence, and it is vitally important to work with an agent that knows the market inside and out to help determine the maximum price appropriate. You won't find many agents more bullish on Central Oregon than me, but paying too much without a long timeline of potential ownership is never fun. My knowledge of our market is always current, and I act quickly! On the flip side, if you are looking at a property that has lingered on the market, now is a great time to make a lower offer. Whatever the case, I have experienced it and have the local knowledge to help you make ownership in Central Oregon a reality. 

Lastly, click the links below to check out my new vacant lot listings in the great Diamond Peaks subdivision in Crescent Lake! The abundance of trails in the area is unparalleled, with world-class mountain biking in Oakridge only a 45-minute drive away and the Willamette Pass Ski Area only a nine-minute drive. Or hit all the hot spots in Bend, only an hour's drive. Diamond Peaks has paved roads, power and water on the street, and beautiful homes. As this desirable community grows, several new high-quality builds are also in the subdivision. Don't miss your chance to get established in one of the Pacific Northwest's outdoor meccas! Please feel free to contact me for more details.

Click here for the full report.

Are you looking for a way to enjoy your home in Bend even more this summer? Designing an outdoor space you love is a great way to add value to your home, both for yourself in the immediate future and for your potential resale value.

Recent surveys reveal that most buyers now list an outdoor space as a top priority for them as they are house hunting, thanks to a post-pandemic shift toward spending more time at home. This means that when you invest your time and effort into designing an outdoor space you love, you are also investing in the future market appeal of your home in Bend.

Want to learn more about the market value of your home in Bend, or the process of selling your home in Central Oregon? Contact us any time.

Set Up a Seating Area

If you find that you don't have a large porch or patio, don't worry! There are plenty of creative ways to set up a seating area in a different part of your yard. Consider creating a dedicated space by installing a paver or pea gravel patio area. These options are not only cost-effective but also provide a charming and rustic ambiance.

When designing your seating area, think about incorporating features that can extend the usability of the space throughout the year. Adding a fire pit at the center can create a cozy and warm atmosphere, allowing you to enjoy your outdoor space even during cooler evenings or colder seasons. Gathering around a fire pit with friends and family creates a focal point and encourages socialization, making your outdoor area the perfect spot for hosting gatherings and creating lasting memories.

To make the seating area more comfortable and inviting, invest in quality outdoor furniture that suits your style and needs. Consider durable and weather-resistant materials such as teak, wrought iron, or aluminum, as they can withstand the elements and require minimal maintenance. Additionally, accessorize the seating area with plush cushions, outdoor rugs, and throw pillows to create a cozy and welcoming atmosphere.

Don't forget to add shade elements to your seating area, especially if your yard receives direct sunlight. Install a pergola, canopy, or patio umbrella to provide relief from the sun's rays and create a comfortable space to relax during hot summer days. Shade structures not only offer protection from the elements but also add architectural interest and visual appeal to your outdoor space.

Finally, don't underestimate the power of landscaping and greenery in enhancing your seating area. Surround the space with lush plants, shrubs, or flower beds to create a sense of privacy and natural beauty. Consider planting fragrant flowers or herbs nearby to infuse the area with pleasant scents, making your outdoor oasis even more enjoyable.

By setting up a comfortable seating area in your outdoor space, you can transform it into a place where you'll want to spend more time. Whether it's relaxing with a book, hosting a barbecue, or simply enjoying the fresh air, an inviting seating area will not only enhance your quality of life but also add value to your property.

Make Entertaining Easy

By incorporating a few key elements, you can effortlessly host and entertain friends and family in your backyard.

Consider adding a bar cart to your outdoor space. A bar cart equipped with a cooler allows you to conveniently set up a variety of refreshing beverages and appetizers. It serves as a stylish and functional piece, providing a designated area for drinks, glassware, and other bar essentials. With a well-stocked bar cart, you can easily cater to your guests' preferences and ensure that everyone has their favorite beverage within reach.

To further facilitate hosting and entertaining, invest in extra chairs and a set of outdoor dishes. Having ample seating options ensures that everyone has a comfortable place to relax and enjoy the company. Folding chairs or stackable seating options can be easily stored and brought out when needed. Opt for durable and weather-resistant outdoor dishes, including plates, glasses, and utensils, which are designed to withstand outdoor conditions. This eliminates the need to constantly bring out and clean indoor items when entertaining outside.

To create an inviting atmosphere, consider adding outdoor lighting to your space. String lights, lanterns, or pathway lighting can enhance the ambiance and provide ample illumination for evening gatherings. Lighting not only adds a touch of charm but also ensures that your outdoor space remains functional and enjoyable even after the sun sets.

In addition to the practical elements, don't forget to incorporate comfortable and cozy seating options. Consider investing in outdoor furniture such as lounge chairs, sofas, or a dining set that is both stylish and comfortable. Cushions and outdoor pillows can add a pop of color and extra comfort. Creating various seating areas, such as a cozy lounge space or a dining area, encourages conversation and mingling, allowing guests to relax and enjoy themselves.

To add a touch of creativity and personalization to your outdoor space, consider incorporating decorative elements that reflect your style and interests. This could include outdoor artwork, vibrant planters, or even a small outdoor garden or herb patch. These elements can serve as conversation starters and create a visually appealing backdrop for your entertaining space.

Lastly, keep in mind the importance of convenience and functionality. Make sure your outdoor space is equipped with amenities such as a convenient access point to the kitchen for easy food preparation and serving. Consider adding a grill or outdoor cooking area to expand your culinary options and create a seamless flow between indoor and outdoor entertaining.

Balance Hardscape and Landscape

Your yard should incorporate a nice blend of hardscaping and landscaping. If your outdoor space leans too far in one direction, it can feel like something is imbalanced in the space. Take a look at the current outdoor design and determine whether you might benefit from added plants around the hardscape, like planting flowering shrubs along a fenceline or incorporating potted plants on the patio. If there is too much plant life and not enough structure, add some concrete or stone edging or a paver pathway through the lawn to visually break up the space.

Don't Forget about Lighting

Outdoor lighting plays a crucial role in transforming the design and ambiance of your outdoor space. Just like indoor lighting, the right choices can make a significant difference in creating a welcoming and inviting atmosphere. When it comes to outdoor lighting, it's important to give yourself options and think beyond the basic illumination.

One approach to outdoor lighting is to consider ways to provide shade when needed. Installing outdoor drapes on the sides of a patio cover or investing in a large umbrella not only offers relief from the sun's rays but also introduces an element of style and versatility to your outdoor area. These shade options allow you to control the amount of natural light entering the space while adding a touch of elegance and privacy.

To enhance the ambiance after dark, consider incorporating string lights into your outdoor space. Stringing these lights across the area where you are most likely to spend your evenings adds a magical and enchanting touch. Whether it's wrapping them around trees, hanging them along a fence, or draping them across a pergola or canopy, these lights create a warm and inviting atmosphere that is distinctly different from the typical house lights. The soft, ambient glow of the string lights sets a cozy and relaxing mood, perfect for unwinding or entertaining guests in the evening.

In addition to string lights, explore other options for outdoor lighting that can further enhance the aesthetics and functionality of your space. Consider installing pathway lights along walkways or garden borders to provide both safety and visual appeal. These lights not only illuminate the path but also add a charming element to your landscaping. Furthermore, spotlights can be strategically placed to highlight specific features in your yard, such as trees, sculptures, or architectural elements, creating a focal point and adding depth and interest to the overall design.

Another consideration for outdoor lighting is the use of accent lighting. This involves using subtle lighting fixtures to illuminate specific areas or objects. For instance, you can install low-voltage lights beneath steps or along the edges of a patio or deck to provide a gentle glow that enhances safety and aesthetics. Accent lighting can also be used to highlight plants, flowers, or other natural elements, adding drama and beauty to your outdoor space.

Incorporating smart lighting technology is another option worth exploring. With smart outdoor lighting systems, you can control the intensity, color, and timing of your lights from your smartphone or other devices. This allows you to easily create different lighting scenes and adjust the ambiance according to your mood or the occasion. Whether you want a vibrant and energetic setting for a lively outdoor gathering or a soft and tranquil glow for a quiet night under the stars, smart lighting provides the flexibility to customize your outdoor lighting experience.

By giving yourself options and thinking beyond the typical house lights, you can elevate the design and atmosphere of your outdoor space. The strategic use of shade elements, string lights, pathway lights, spotlights, accent lighting, and even smart lighting technology allows you to create a captivating and versatile outdoor environment that can be enjoyed day and night. Whether you're hosting a gathering or simply unwinding after a long day, the right outdoor lighting can transform your outdoor space into a captivating haven.

Make It Fun

Don't forget to add some fun elements to your outdoor space, for kids and adults alike. This might include:

• Swings
• Lawn games like bocce ball, cornhole, or croquet
• Supplies for s'mores around the fire pit

In conclusion, transforming your backyard into a truly inviting space requires careful consideration and thoughtful planning. By implementing the right elements, such as creating a comfortable seating area, incorporating outdoor lighting, adding shade options, and incorporating personal touches, you can turn your backyard into a haven that beckons you and your guests to spend more time outdoors. Whether you're seeking relaxation, entertainment, or simply a connection with nature, a welcoming backyard provides the perfect setting for creating cherished memories and enjoying the beauty of outdoor living. So, take the time to invest in your outdoor space, and reap the rewards of a backyard that not only enhances your home but also enriches your lifestyle.

To learn more about real estate in Bend, contact us any time with your questions.

As mortgage rates rise, the threshold that keeps buyers on the sidelines in Central Oregon also rises in our supply-constrained market. When rates first began climbing, 6% was the breaking point for many buyers, with the inventory of single-family homes in Deschutes County peaking at 972 on August 10, 2022, before the seasonal decline into fall and winter. With rates breaking the 7% threshold last week, buyers seemed undeterred relative to this year's activity. Thankfully, rates dropped to start the week, with the 30-year fixed-rate national average at 6.95% yesterday afternoon. However, sales are still down year over year, and inventory is up, albeit slightly. This morning there are 686 single-family homes for sale in Deschutes County, compared to 617 on June 1, 2022. Sales over the previous week were seventy-one compared to ninety-one in 2022, and closings were forty-six, down from seventy-seven last year. On June 15, 2022, there were 705 single-family homes listed in Deschutes County, only nineteen more than today. 

Equity markets showed mixed results with the recent "hair on fire" crisis of the debt ceiling negotiations passing the House of Representatives yesterday. Although, Wall Street will rapidly move on to bigger things, with talk of government default relegated to the dustbin and deficit spending secured for another two years. I assume that many active home buyers paid little attention to the machinations of Congress. Still, one less "crisis" in the headlines should calm markets and may even result in slightly lower mortgage rates, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping somewhat on yesterday's debt ceiling news. All eyes will be on the Fed and the next Open Market Committee meeting in two weeks. With inflation still concerning the Fed, whether the June meeting results in a pause or another increase will set the tone for the remainder of the summer real estate season.

This morning, the median price of active listings of single-family homes in Deschutes County is 847k, averaging $1,162,901. The median of the seventy-one pending sales over the previous seven days is 765k, with the median sold price over the last week at 719k. The active and pending prices increased from this week in 2022, with the median sale price down only $11,000. Peak selling season may have something to do with the robust activity, but considering mortgage rates are over one-percent higher than this time last year, it is safe to say buyers are bullish on Central Oregon. However, nineteen of the forty-six sales the previous week were cash deals, an increase from recent weeks. Judging by our robust market, there is a strong chance home prices will stay firm through summer, possibly increasing.

There are twenty-four homes under 400k currently listed in Deschutes County, primarily in the south county, with seventy-one over $2M. The active listings and median price by city/county are as follows:

• Bend, 372, $1,082,325
• Redmond, 144, $$615,000
• La Pine, 86, $524,950
• Sisters, 50, $924,950
• Terrebonne, 28, $689,900
• Crook County, 123, $575,000
• Jefferson County, 67, $440,000

There are 285 residential lots listed in Deschutes County at a median of $349,900, 192 in Crook County at $146,250, and twenty-nine in Jefferson County at $153,000. Remember that many of the lots in each of the three Central Oregon Counties need a private well and septic system, which individually run approximately $30,000. 

That is a lot of data illustrating one thing; Central Oregon homes sell at near-record prices. Recently I've read reports about sales prices down as much as 12% in cities like Seattle and San Francisco, a trend that has not occurred in Central Oregon. Many new Oregon residents come from populated west coast cities, driving our market. I've mentioned population increase projections for Deschutes County of 15k by 2025 and another 20k from 2025 to 2030. The deficit of homes for the new residents relocating to Oregon is not going away soon, and a price collapse has not materialized. If any signs of change in our market appear, you'll read about it here first, so stay tuned! 

Click the link if you are interested in the population estimate reports.

I started writing these weekly reports four years ago and have not missed a Wednesday report since! My first report went out to eight readers, and today over one thousand, plus social media. You will not find a more comprehensive weekly analysis of the Central Oregon housing market anywhere. Whatever your view of the market or real estate needs, I am here to help with the knowledge you need to make the right decision for your needs. 

Click here for the full report.

Seasonal maintenance is an essential part of homeownership. With regular maintenance rhythms, you can take the best possible care of your home in Bend, keeping your home in excellent condition both for yourself and for future resale value. This spring and summer, give your home in Central Oregon the TLC it deserves with these warm weather maintenance tips.

Looking for homes for sale in Central Oregon? We can help you find the ideal community for you, whether it is in the heart of Bend or in a smaller surrounding community. Contact us any time to get started on your house-hunting journey.

Clean Your Gutters and Downspouts

Your gutters and downspouts will almost certainly have collected some leaves, twigs, and other debris during the colder months. As spring and summer roll around, take the time to make they are cleared. You can hire a professional service for this, but it is also quite easy to tackle yourself if you are able-bodied and not afraid of heights.

In Central Oregon, substantial moisture and rain can cause moss to thrive in gutters and downspouts. Avoid clogged gutters that can cause flooding, roof damage, and other problems by clearing them regularly to prepare for that Oregon precipitation.

Remove large debris by hand, and then attempt to flush smaller debris out with a high-pressure hose. If there is still blockage after this, you may want to invest in some specialized gutter cleaning tools for a more thorough job.

Check Door and Window Seals

Any gaps around your doors or windows will make your home less energy efficient. As you prepare to run the air conditioning during the warmer months, make sure you are not wasting energy by checking the door and window seals.

You can do this yourself by inspecting the caulking and weatherstripping around every opening. Any signs of damage or gapping are an indication that they should be replaced. You may want to hire a pro to get the job done, but if you are handy this is a relatively simple task to DIY.

Wash the Exterior of the Home

Spring and summer are the perfect times to thoroughly wash the exterior or your home. Over time, your home will slowly have a buildup of dust, debris, mildew, or dirt that should be washed away. Take a power washer to the exterior of your home, carefully following instructions to avoid stripping paint or damaging the exterior.

Wash your windows while you are at it to make you home look new again. This simple seasonal maintenance is a great way to avoid unnecessary wear and tear over time and preserve your home's curb appeal for a future resale.

Keep Up with your Landscaping

It is easy to let landscaping go, and over the years this can build up to affect your property value. Set aside some time this spring or summer to spruce up the landscaping around your home. If hiring a lawn care service or staying on top of it yourself is not working out, consider investing in lower-maintenance landscaping that you know you can keep up with. A no-mow yard with slow-growing plants can limit the amount of work you need to do each year to keep your home looking nice.

Ready to find houses for sale in Bend? We're here to help, so contact us any time.

Inventory of single-family homes in Deschutes County increased eighteen to 667 this week, while Crook and Jefferson Counties were flat. Deschutes County homes for sale are up 12.7% from last year, nowhere near enough inventory to dampen prices significantly. Price reductions of the actively listed homes in Deschutes and Crook County are in the low four percent range and only -2.6% in Jefferson County. There were five pending sales in Jefferson County, down two from last week, and ten in Crook County, up four. Nevertheless, Deschutes County had a robust eighty pending transactions, up five from last week. 

Deschutes County Properties

Mortgage rates have been increasing lately, with the 30-year fixed-rate national average yesterday afternoon at 7.01%. On April 17, 2023, the national average was 6.68%, a likely contributor to only 46 closed transactions this week. However, only 525 homes were for sale on April 12, 2023, another contributing factor to the lower closed sales. Despite the high rates, only fourteen of the forty completed transactions this week were cash deals. 

Many experts incorrectly assumed that the last Fed Open Market Committee meeting would have paused rate increases, followed by a pivot to lower rates. Instead, as we now know, rates increased by 25 basis points. There is a strong chance that the Fed will pause rate hikes at the next meeting on June 14, but the likelihood of a pivot over the next four meetings of 2023 is increasing low. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kaskari recently said, "What's important is not signaling we are done...(and we) may need to go north of 6%." St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard said, "I think we are going to have to grind higher with the policy rate...to return inflation to target. I'm thinking two more moves this year...I've advocated sooner than later." If either of these thoughts becomes a reality, my prediction of rates in the high 5% range by Labor Day was, unfortunately, incorrect. JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon said, "Everybody should be prepared for higher rates from here...(the Fed) could push rates as high as 7%." The rates mentioned in these quotes refer to the overnight rate, which is currently at 5.25%. Using Kaskari's number would indicate another 75 basis point increase and 175 basis points using Jamie Dimon's prediction. If these narratives become a reality, there is a strong chance mortgages could approach 8% by year-end. 

Crook County Properties

Under normal market conditions, higher rates would slow sales, and the inventory of available homes would naturally increase. Unfortunately, normal set sail long ago. Homeowners are financially strong today, with many sitting on 3% or less mortgage rates. As we have experienced for the last few years, today's market is supply constrained, not awash with buyers. The active buyers have the means to purchase under these conditions and are motivated to make Central Oregon home. As a result, prices have remained firm. There have been more multiple-offer scenarios, but the bidding wars of 2022 have dissipated, with most multiple offers resulting in contracts at the asking price or slightly above.

Comparing the year-to-date numbers of 2022 and 2023 illustrates our supply-constrained market perfectly. In 2022 through May 24, there were 1732 sales of single-family homes in Deschutes County at a median sale price of 690k and five days on the market. In 2023 through this morning, we have closed 1080 sales at a median of 635k and twenty-seven days on the market. In normal conditions, a collapse in sales volume of 37.6% would translate into significantly increased days on the market and robust price reductions. However, the 55k price reduction indicated in the YTD comparisons hardly matters due to substantially higher mortgage rates. Using the median sale price of 2022 and 2023 and mortgage interest rates from March of each year of 4.86% and 6.58%, respectively, shows an increase in monthly payments of $400 for this year. 

Jefferson County Properties

It would be easy to interpret my report this morning as "doom and gloom," but there are always opportunities in turbulent economic conditions. Moreover, each transaction has unique factors that need individual analysis. Lenders are getting more creative with the programs available as rates increase. Cash buyers are in an even stronger position than in the last few years of competing with well-qualified buyers accessing historically low mortgage rates. The dearth of inventory has disproportionately impacted the lower price points, but many sellers are offering owner-carried contracts to sell in these conditions.

The takeaways apply in any market but are especially important today:

1) Stay in close contact with a responsive lender that can tailor a loan program to fit your needs.

2) View real estate with an extended timeframe, and don't get hung up on short-term volatility.

3) Ensure your real estate agent has local knowledge of the markets and lenders that can help.

Deschutes County over $2M

Unfortunately, there are no indications that a wave of homes will hit the market, bringing prices down substantially. Also, particularly for younger buyers and first-time homeowners, do not buy thinking you need to check every box! While it is true that people are owning homes longer than in years past, the likelihood that you will have the same mortgage or home for thirty years is extremely low. Getting a "foot in the door" now will provide options in the future that waiting will not. 

Whatever your situation, I have experienced it and have the expertise to help you make an educated move. So whether you need to buy or sell this summer or plan a post-retirement move in five years, I can help. Or, use the many tools on my website to track the market, like Market Trends, Market Reports, or the Home Valuation tool. You will not find a more comprehensive website or weekly Central Oregon housing market analysis!

Click here for the full report.

Thankfully, inventory in Central Oregon continues to climb, with 649 single-family homes listed this morning in Deschutes County. Homes listed in Crook County were up by two to 117, and Jefferson County was flat at sixty-four. Conversely, the median price reduction for pending sales remains low, with Deschutes County at -3.82%, Crook at -3.74%, and Jefferson at -2.74%. Due to the smaller number of transactions, median days for pending properties change significantly in Crook and Jefferson County, making the metric less meaningful. However, in Deschutes County, where there were seventy-five pending sales last week, the days listed before securing a contract dropped to twelve. This solid activity sits against 30-year fixed-rate mortgages at 6.69%.

Market analysts and investors may be sharpening their pencils when looking at properties at today's financing rates, but most buyers focus on monthly payments. Similar mortgage rates slowed sales significantly in late 2022 and early 2023, while today, activity is robust. What changed? Likely there are several contributing factors:

1. Seasonality significantly impacts sales volume from now through the end of summer, with new residents looking to make Central Oregon home.
2. Many buyers assume that peak mortgage rates are behind us or at least not climbing further.
3. If buyers can afford today's payment, there is every reason to believe that future costs can be reduced with a refinance when rates decline.

Many buyers have grown accustomed to where rates are today and do not want to wait any longer. 

I regularly speak with people concerned about the economy, which has been flashing signs of recession for several months. However, even if we are in a recession today, that does not necessarily mean housing prices in Central Oregon will decline. For example, a handful of analysts I followed late last year predicted a flat 2023 and a decline in 2024. While there is no doubt sales volume is down, constrained supply is partly to blame. However, today's strong sales, firm (and rising) prices, and forecasted population growth are propelling this season beyond predictions. Therefore, with limited supply and the other factors I mentioned, I do not expect a housing downturn in 2024. Yes, another prediction! Candidly, even a casual observer can see the growth and real estate trends in Central Oregon.

It is no secret that many new residents coming to Central Oregon are leaving metropolitan west coast cities. In addition, work-from-home opportunities have opened up the possibility of living where many used to vacation. While there is no shortage of mountain towns, Central Oregon is unique. Our winters are far milder than many smaller, higher-elevation towns; we have an excellent regional airport and are in close driving proximity to Portland, Seattle, or even northern California. As you get deeper into the Inter-Mountain West, many of Central Oregon's attributes do not apply. Housing is always susceptible to price swings, as we saw in the second half of last year. Although, over the long haul, very few assets consistently perform as well as homes in desirable areas. 

Lately, I have gotten marketing material praising the benefits of using artificial intelligence for everything from writing property descriptions to social media posts. While I have no doubt AI will play a more significant role in everything we do (whether we like it or not!) I assure you my reports will always be written and researched by me—every Wednesday morning. The idea that I would use AI to describe a home or write about market conditions sounds outlandish. However, we all see how homogenized most marketing campaigns are, and I expect that trend to continue with AI. Researching the market, staying current on the economy, and growing my list of trusted lenders, home inspectors, and other resources is a job I take seriously. You will not get cookie-cutter service from me! On that note, before the end of the week, property detail pages on my website will now include taxes and HOA fees! The tax and HOA information are below the property descriptions, mortgage calculator, schools, and property walk score—coming soon!

Click here for the full report.

Bend is a great place to live if you are a fan of craft beer. Every weekend you can try a different local brewery, from the large national brand Deschutes to a small local favorite. Next time you are trying to decide where to grab a cold one near Bend, check out this list.

Deschutes Brewery

Names for Deschutes County, Deschutes Brewery has become a large brewery that ships its beers around the nation. They began as a small craft brewery serving the Bend community in 1988, selling 310 barrels of beer that year. Now they sell over 255,000 barrels each year, but their Bend location continues to serve the community. Enjoy a tour of their brewery or relax in the tasting room to find your new favorite brew.

Bridge 99 Brewery

Started by best friends Trever Hawman and Rod Kramer, Bridge 99 Brewery uses eco-friendly methods and locally sourced ingredients to craft diverse beers and ales. The overwhelmingly positive response to their quest to create more drinkable microbeer allowed them to quickly move into a larger space, complete with tasting room. In addition to enjoying their delicious beers, you can feel good about your choice knowing the spent grains are taken to local ranchers, rather than the local landfill.

Silver Moon Brewing

Silver Moon Brewing began as a supplier for home brewing supplies, but transitioned into brewing its own craft beers to serve the public as Bend's third local brewery. Plan to taste a couple of beers and stay awhile, enjoying live music from local artists. The outdoor space is laid back and welcoming, with a big fire pit in the center of the patio to keep things cozy no matter the time of year.

Broken Top Bottle Shop

Broken Top Bottle Shop is more than just a brewery. They offer delicious beers on tap, of course, but they also serve satisfying food to pair with your selections and feature a store that sells just about every beverage you might want, including bottled and canned beer, cider, mead, sake, wine, and nonalcoholic beverages.

Their restaurant is an award-winning place to enjoy an innovative spin on a classic pub food, like the fennel-dusted pretzel with pesto cheese dip, pork belly bahn mi, or cauliflower shwarma. The outdoor patio area is dog friendly so you can enjoy your evening out with your canine family members, too.

Bend Ale Trail

While not technically a brewery, you should know about the Bend Ale Trail. This self-guided tour is the perfect way to spend a weekend day exploring all the best beer spots in Bend. Of course you won't complete the trail in a day, but you can definitely make a dent in it!

Download the app and make your way through the list of breweries, restaurants, and shops to check out. You will even find out about non-beer drinks you might love, like hard kombuchas and meads that are locally made and garnering some attention.

Are you looking for homes for sale in Bend and wondering what it's like to live there? Contact us any time to learn more about making Bend your home.