My Weekly Central Oregon Real Estate Blog

The seasons in Central Oregon can change quickly, and this year seems to have transitioned to cooler temperatures definitively. The housing market inventory in Deschutes County has also started the annual seasonal decline, with 846 single-family homes for sale, down fourteen from last week and sixty-two from this week last year. As the discrepancy between homeowners' mortgage rates and current rates grows, I anticipate the dearth of active inventory to continue. 

As expected, the median days of actively listed homes have increased to sixty-eight, with 444 price reductions. The unexpected aspect of today's market is the firm prices in the face of ever-increasing mortgage interest rates. There is no question that the low availability of houses has helped keep prices stable. However, with so many great loan programs, such as rate buydowns, most buyers are paying rates in the 6% range for the first year of their loans. Veterans also have access to rates in the 6% range, which in many cases could be more than two percent below the bare rate quoted today. In our "higher, longer" rate environment, 6% looks remarkably good. 

On October 3, 2022, the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.89% and on its way to 7.20% in November before a steep drop to the low 6% range. Since late last year, rates have gradually increased to a peak yesterday of 7.72%. Whether the Fed raises rates again on November 1 depends on Jerome Powell and his crony's interpretation of economic data. Still, even another 25 basis point increase is less significant than the "higher, longer" narrative, keeping sellers on the sidelines. 

December and early January are the slowest months of the year for transaction volume, with the lowest weekly volume last season at twenty-nine on November 30 and again on January 4, 2023. There was a seven-week stretch between late November and early January where sales volume stayed below fifty units per week, with the high for early 2023 established on February 22 at eighty-five weekly sales. 

Active inventory is never static as homes sell and new listings hit the market daily. For buyers navigating this challenging market, it would be understandable to want to pull back during the slower winter months. But, some of the year's best opportunities occur during the shoulder seasons. There is no question this market has been challenging for buyers, and I strongly encourage those of you looking for a home to remain diligent over the next several months. Staying current on home prices and what is available will help you to identify opportunities and respond when there is less competition from buyers. Even if rates remain high, peak season is more frenetic for buyers than the off-season. 

Over the last few years in Central Oregon, home buying has been more about identifying the right property than negotiating the best deal. If lower prices and willing sellers become the norm, you will read about it here first. My reports are hyper-local and specific to the communities of Central Oregon, unlike most national reporting that is an average of the entire country. Still, I read the national reports regularly to try and identify market changes that could impact Central Oregon. On that note, nationwide home inventory is increasing, which is in direct contrast to what is taking place locally. I've often pointed out winter weather's impact on our markets and the demographic shift to recreationally focused areas. Without significant inventory heading into winter or a reduction in the flow of new residents moving to our communities, it isn't easy to imagine a substantial shift in our market conditions, even with higher interest rates. However, I write these detailed reports weekly so you can stay on top of the Central Oregon housing market! 

Understanding today's pricing is imperative to making a good decision whether buying or selling. A fine line exists for sellers to capture buyers' attention or set unrealistic expectations. Even with plenty of time, the initial impression is vital and produces the best results. It is better to price closer to a realistic sale price and hold firm than to expect a drawn-out negotiation. With some exceptions, today's tightening credit market is not conducive to fishing for a high price; demand has already increased prices to record levels. Although some locations in Central Oregon are uniquely attractive and require deep knowledge of our market to ensure you aren't leaving anything on the table. No matter your position, I provide deep, specific analysis of specific neighborhoods, active, pending, and sold comps, and a local's knowledge of Central Oregon for every market analysis. No matter what price you settle on as a seller or offer as a buyer, my reports will give you the information to know you are making an informed decision.

***I take the photos displayed at the top of these reports in my travels around Central Oregon to show off the natural beauty around us. It is easy to get hung up on the minutia of homes and properties, but the mountains, rivers, and wilderness make this part of the world special! 

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Buying a fixer upper is a brilliant way to get the most out of your housing budget, and can be particularly appealing for those looking to combat affordability challenges in 2023's housing market. Whether you are planning to flip the house or renovate it for your personal home, we can help you find homes for sale in Central Oregon that will be your ideal fixer upper property. Contact us any time to learn more.

Central Oregon is a region known for its breathtaking natural beauty, outdoor recreational opportunities, and a thriving real estate market. If you're on the hunt for a fixer-upper, Central Oregon offers a unique blend of potential, affordability, and lifestyle that can make your dream of owning a charming, renovated home a reality. Wondering where to buy a fixer-upper in Central Oregon and what you should consider when embarking on this exciting journey? This post is for you.

Bend: The Heart of Central Oregon

Bend, the largest city in Central Oregon, is a prime location for finding fixer-upper homes. It's a vibrant and rapidly growing community known for its outdoor activities, craft beer scene, and cultural amenities. Bend offers a variety of older homes, from historic bungalows to mid-century houses, that can serve as great renovation projects. Neighborhoods like Old Bend, River West, and Larkspur are particularly popular for fixer-upper enthusiasts.

Pros:

• Abundance of amenities, restaurants, and entertainment options.
• Strong job market and economy.
• Excellent schools and community services.
• Proximity to outdoor attractions like Mt. Bachelor and Deschutes River.

Cons:

• Higher property prices compared to some other Central Oregon areas.
• Competitive real estate market, especially for fixer-uppers.

Redmond: Affordable Fixer-Upper Opportunities

Redmond, which is located just north of Bend, is known for its more affordable real estate market. It's a family-friendly community with a growing downtown area and a variety of fixer-upper options. Neighborhoods like Terrebonne and Tetherow Crossing often have homes in need of renovation at reasonable prices.

Pros:

• More budget-friendly compared to Bend.
• Steady job growth and development.
• Close to Smith Rock State Park and other outdoor attractions.
• Community-oriented with a small-town feel.

Cons:

• Slightly longer commute to Bend and some other Central Oregon destinations.
• Smaller selection of amenities and entertainment options compared to Bend.

Sisters: Quaint Fixer-Uppers

Located northwest of Bend, Sisters is a charming town known for its Western-style architecture and strong sense of community. If you're looking for a smaller, more intimate community in Central Oregon, Sisters may be the perfect place to find your fixer-upper. Look for homes in the historic downtown area or surrounding neighborhoods for renovation potential.

Pros:

• Peaceful and scenic environment with a strong sense of community.
• Quaint, Western-themed downtown with boutique shops and restaurants.
• Proximity to outdoor activities like hiking, biking, and skiing.

Cons:

• Limited job opportunities within Sisters; many residents commute to Bend or Redmond for work.
• Fewer amenities and services compared to larger cities.

Prineville: Affordable Gems

Located to the east of Redmond, Prineville is a small, friendly town known for its affordability and rural charm. Fixer-uppers in Prineville can be significantly more affordable than those in Bend or even Redmond, making it an attractive option for budget-conscious buyers.

Pros:

• Extremely affordable real estate prices.
• A quieter pace of life with a strong sense of community.
• Proximity to Prineville Reservoir State Park for outdoor recreation.

Cons:

• Limited job opportunities in town; some residents commute to larger cities.
• Fewer urban amenities compared to larger Central Oregon cities.

Madras: Up and Coming

Madras, situated to the north of Bend, is an up-and-coming city with growing potential for fixer-upper opportunities. As Central Oregon's population continues to expand, Madras is becoming an attractive option for buyers seeking affordability and investment potential.

Pros:

• Affordable real estate prices and the potential for property appreciation.
• Proximity to the scenic Lake Billy Chinook and Cove Palisades State Park.
• A developing downtown area with new businesses and services.

Cons:

• Fewer job opportunities within the city, but potential for growth.
• Limited cultural and entertainment options compared to larger Central Oregon cities.

Ready to find the right fixer upper in Central Oregon for you? Contact us any time.

Active listings in all three counties of Central Oregon declined this week as the seasonal reduction of available homes begins in earnest. In Deschutes County this morning, there are 860 listings, down thirty-one from last week. With the national average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 7.5%, it would be easy to assume that prices are plummeting, which has not been the case. There is little doubt that many sellers are open to offers, and I have touted this as a great time of year to purchase. While Fall in the mountains is a great time to be a buyer, the reductions sellers are willing to entertain are unique to each property and may not be as deep as some buyers hope. 

Nationwide, inventory is increasing, indicating a softer future market and potentially lower prices this spring. For Central Oregon sellers, an early start to inclement Fall weather and a looming holiday season may have helped preserve prices for the remainder of 2023. Unfortunately, many buyers are seeing financing quotes of 8.25%, placing a damper on some of the recently reduced pricing. With the Fed still threatening another 25 basis point hike by year-end, I expect spring prices to be flat, at best. 

Inventory and buyer demand will be the two most significant factors to watch this spring. On January 4, 2023, there were 612 single-family homes listed in Deschutes County, with the low two months later at 485. Inventory didn't breach the six-hundred mark again until May 10, and it took another month before we surpassed 700 listings. Many analysts have called out the high percentage of homeowners with rates locked in near 3% as the reason for so few listings, as the thought of selling a low mortgage rate to buy in again at more than double is so unpalatable. Will the higher rate environment this spring continue to keep sellers on the sideline? 

Annual sales in Deschutes County typically fall between 3000-5000 per year. With Deschutes County's growth projected to continue for several years, there seems to be a steady stream of buyers stoking our market. Getting hung up on pricing in the short term can be an easy trap to fall into, but any home buyer six months ago saw far better conditions than today. Using a longer lens to view housing is the best approach, and there is no reason to be bearish on Central Oregon real estate. However, not every property price is accurate! I evaluate individual homes and the broader MLS regularly and have intimate knowledge of what homes are selling and which are not. Please do not hesitate to reach out if you have questions about a specific property. 

While some properties are over-priced, many higher-end homes in today's market are increasingly challenging to evaluate. The limited availability in desirable neighborhoods leaves few options for new residents jumping on the premier homes. New sellers are optimistic and priced based on recent activity, and the market is constantly changing. The mix of properties available at any given moment changes the desirability of listed homes as buyers sort through the market. If you are questioning the price of a property, let me run a market analysis to help you determine if a lower offer is feasible.

The median days of actively listed single-family homes in Deschutes County this morning is sixty-five, pending days at thirty-one, and sold at eighteen. Days on the market are unquestionably higher than at the peak frenzy of late 2021 and the first half of 2022, but still a long way from stagnant. Buyers testing the market with low offers find that sellers are sticking relatively close to the asking price, with the median price change for sold properties this week at -6.3%. Double-digit percentage reductions are few and far between. With fewer homes available heading into winter, more marketable properties are sticking closer to the asking price. 

Of course, I am happy to present the offer that makes sense for you, but I can also guide you as to where most homes will likely sell. Receiving a counter-offer is the goal, not getting rejected outright and then needing to guess the price a seller will accept. Arbitrarily deciding the price a particular home should sell for rarely works out for buyers. Until something changes further in the Central Oregon housing market, be prepared to pay close to the asking price in most cases. Double-digit percentage reductions have been infrequent. 

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I recently predicted that rates would increase another 25 basis points in today's Fed meeting. However, the tea leaves point towards a hold rather than an increase. While that is excellent news for the mortgage markets, which have been relatively stable lately, there are no indications of a pivot anytime soon. Powell and company have clarified that a November increase is still on the table. Still, judging by recent trends, that narrative may be as much to scare the markets from becoming overly jubilant as an actual increase. Although, I wouldn't get too excited about the recently favorable dip in the CPI as disinflation is most likely what is transitory. One thing seems clear: the Fed's commitment to keeping rates higher longer.

Last week, the peak inventory in Deschutes County occurred for the year; the exact week inventory peaked in 2022. This morning, there are 892 single-family homes listed, compared to 921 the previous year. Year-to-date sold homes in 2022 were 3,173 at a median of 695k and seven days on the market, compared to 2,380 at a median of 660k and twenty days on the market this year. The drop in sales is now 25% year-over-year, with the median sale price down 5%. However, the gaps are narrowing as the year progresses. I do not anticipate total sales volume will catch up with 2022, but the median sale price increased this week. Comparing this week with the same week in 2022 shows a 2.4% increase in the median sale price and a two-day drop in the median days on the market. Last week's median sale price was 745k, with eighteen days on the market.

Crook County also saw a drop in active listings, but it is higher than this week last year. The number of active listings in Jefferson County increased this week but is three less than this week last year. Both Crook and Jefferson County have single-digit pending and sold volume weekly, so the median numbers are not as reliable for evaluating the market. Year-to-date, Crook County sales are down 18.4%, with the median sale price down 6.1%. Jefferson County sales are down 42.2%, and the median sold price dropped 4.75%. 

Many homes on the market today have been listed for several months, with the median days listed for the active inventory at sixty-one. Many sellers today have already reduced the asking price and are likely open to offers in an effort to close this year. Fall is always a great time to be a buyer from a seasonal standpoint, and this year is no different. For buyers that can qualify at today's rates, a seller credit towards a rate buydown will get you in the 6% range and, for some, into the high 5s. Using a 2-1 buydown, which would provide a two-point reduction in year one, a one-point decrease in year two, and then the quoted rate at the time of a rate lock in years three through thirty, makes purchasing today far more attractive. Seller credits towards a buydown are a frequently used tool in today's purchasing environment. If mortgage rates concern you, I strongly encourage a conversation with a local lender to see what is available in your situation.

More and more people are asking questions about vacant land purchases, and I know a few lenders that can help. Many undeveloped land options in Central Oregon will require a well and septic system, which I have extensive experience researching. In addition, there are many recreational lots, off-grid lots, and Exclusive Farm Use zoning that I have studied throughout Central Oregon. Don't hesitate to contact me if you are digging into these options so I can help you decide if any of these properties could work. Remember that in some cases, the community CC&Rs can add a more restrictive element to building or developing vacant land. It is imperative you know everything about a vacant lot before making an offer to prevent disappointment in the future. I research these properties regularly and am happy to be a resource.

There are several active weeks in the real estate market before the holidays, and winter weather slows activity further. This fall has been beautiful, and the cooler yet pleasant temperatures make researching property and touring homes a pleasure. It won't be long before snow makes evaluating lots and land more difficult. If you are waiting for spring to get serious about a purchase, I still recommend researching today to get familiar with your target areas. For some properties, snow can linger into May or beyond, so walking lots or touring areas today can help you make a quick decision if something you love comes up this spring. 

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While the number of homes listed for sale in all three counties of Central Oregon ticked up slightly this week, prices are also up compared to this week in 2022. The average listing price of a single-family home in Deschutes County this morning is nearly $1.1M, compared to 739k this week last year. The pending sale average price this week is 865k, up from 650k last year, and the sold homes this week had an average price of 782k, up slightly from 752k last year. The slight increase in available homes is nowhere near enough to soften prices, even more so when you divide the inventory by all the different communities in Deschutes County. After filtering by home size, price, and other desired features, most buyers realistically have only a handful of options. 

This time of year is typically active as buyers look at the best opportunity of the year, and sellers are motivated to close by year's end. However, as some sellers become realistic about price and make adjustments, knowledgeable buyers are wasting no time scooping up the deals. Now is not the time to drag your feet if you see a price drop on a home that suits your needs. I would encourage any serious buyer to make an offer and negotiate rather than wait for further price drops. Many buyers are not messing around with holidays and winter weather quickly approaching!

As mentioned last week, I expect interest rates to stay elevated through spring 2024 and another rate hike from the Fed next week. However, rates have been relatively stable over the last few weeks. Yesterday afternoon, the average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 7.25%. We have witnessed significant changes in rates either motivate or stall buyers, and the recent stability has calmed the market somewhat. However, there is no question many buyers are either priced out of the market with historic unaffordability due to rates or are waiting for a correction. A correction this year is extremely unlikely without a significant increase in available homes, and new listings have started the seasonal decline. This year, the low inventory point in Deschutes County was 485 homes listed on March 1, with the high today at 909, up two from last week.

Waiting for more inventory and suitable homes may be the best strategy for some buyers, although I do not anticipate buying conditions improving significantly. Even with reduced sales, motivated buyers are snapping up the great homes. The pent-up buyer demand creates a frenzy when excellent properties hit the market, with buyers jumping at the opportunity. If waiting is the best move for you, I encourage you to stay engaged with the market and not waste any time when you see a home you like. It will be evident if the economy falters, creating a more significant issue. Otherwise, I expect our competitive market to continue.

Significant improvement for buyers may not be on the horizon, but neither are escalating prices. Mortgage rates will likely peak over the next several weeks and remain high for the foreseeable future. The analysts I follow are calling for flat home prices through 2024, making a repeat of conditions this year the likely outcome.

Many buyers today face the problem of waiting or buying a home that isn't necessarily their first choice. In many cases, there isn't much variety of available homes. Readers of these reports know I always recommend a long-term view of homes, especially in what could be flat pricing over the next year. However, a compromise to make Central Oregon home might be better than delaying months or even years waiting for the perfect property. No matter your decision, that is a highly personal choice that only you can make. Whatever suits you, I am always available to help you sort through the options. 

Year-to-date, there have been 2,309 sales of single-family homes in Deschutes County, and I expect ~2,800 total sales by year-end. For comparison, there were 3,090 year-to-date sales in 2022, 33.8% more than this year, with similar inventory levels throughout the year. The comparison between sales and inventory illustrates how few sellers are active today, likely with low mortgage interest rates as motivation to sit out the market. There is likely as much pent-up seller demand as buyer demand. What might entice more sellers into the market remains to be seen but likely revolves around interest rates. Buying at higher rates today and using a rate buy-down until a refinance makes sense could be the best strategy, as lower rates will most likely set off a frenzy of activity that will keep prices firm. 

Last week, I mentioned investors pulling back and short-term vacation rental underperformance as potential contributors to increased inventory and lower prices. There is little doubt those could contribute to a change in the housing market, but a lot would need to happen all at once to make a significant impact. If I could predict those events accurately, I'd likely not be working as a real estate agent! While I am current on economic affairs and the Central Oregon housing market, my prediction abilities only project a few months into the future. As always, I welcome the insight of my clients and your experiences outside of Central Oregon. How are things in the communities you currently call home?

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Much of the talk about inflation being under control is wishful thinking, and with an increase in CPI and a jump in consumer spending, I expect the Fed to raise rates 25 basis points in the September meeting later this month. I may be getting ahead of the curve on this prediction. Still, Jerome Powell has been consistent in his messaging, and it is common knowledge that Fed Board Presidents advocated for another hike before year-end. Lately, there has been much chatter from real estate "experts" talking about "what must happen" to reign in affordability issues for buyers. Unfortunately for those wishing for lower rates, those wishes directly conflict with the Fed's current mandate of slowing the economy and housing and increasing unemployment. It sounds contradictory that the Fed would want higher unemployment and a slower economy. Still, the goal has been evident with every public message from Jerome Powell, and backing off now could potentially erase the minor gains made. I expect rates to remain high for the foreseeable future and do not expect a pivot soon.

Housing in Central Oregon has started to show cracks in the armor of an unprecedented price run-up over the last few years. This morning in Deschutes County, 907 homes are listed, up fourteen from the previous year's week and eleven from last week. In all three counties of Central Oregon, 50% of the sold single-family homes took a price cut. At this point, those price cuts sit on top of price reductions of active listings and are beginning to compound. Homes priced correctly may be less susceptible to significant reductions, but many properties still on the market at this time of year are "shopworn," and sellers are looking to make a deal. Also, many buyers see the writing on the wall and, as a result, are more likely to make offers below the asking price. While I have received some direct feedback from offended sellers, the market drives buyer behavior, and market shifts happen quickly. Nobody wants to overpay heading into a slowing market, and consumer sentiment is an intangible reality sellers must face. 

The good news for sellers is that the short window before winter weather and the holiday season is a highly active time of year, as many buyers are just as motivated as sellers to get deals done before year-end. With that short window, there will naturally be fewer new listings, and even with rising inventory, it isn't likely enough to make massive price changes in 2023. Year-to-date sales reflect a -26.3% decrease from last year and a -5.34% price decrease, with the median sale in 2023 at 655k. For perspective, in 2007, there were 2703 sales of single-family homes in Deschutes County, 2,043 in 2008, and 2,844 in 2009, the peak years of decline during the last housing crash. It seems increasingly unlikely that sales will break 3000 units this year.

Strong buyer demand from new residents remains relative to the low inventory of homes listed, but as days on the market increase, expect buyers to be shrewd in what they are willing to offer. 

Prices and price reductions at this time of year are a future predictor of pricing for the coming season. If rates stay high heading into spring (they will!), expect home prices to soften further as sellers confront a smaller pool of potential buyers. The wild card will be how many sellers sit on the sidelines with locked-in lower mortgage rates. Another factor will be investors and the short-term vacation rental pool. If investment properties underperform and home prices continue to decline, it could create additional inventory that further depresses prices. Increased inventory and lower prices may be shocking to experience for the "it's different this time" crowd, but the market makes the rules. I may be on the leading edge of this type of prediction, but there isn't a quick turnaround or a soft landing from my perspective. 

During the pandemic craziness, visitors lingered in Bend and the surrounding areas long past the end of Labor Day and, in many cases, through winter. The rapid decrease in traffic this Monday was palatable. I heard the Sunriver Resort went from 100% capacity on Sunday to 30% on Monday, a decline that did not occur in recent years. I do not have direct access to the resort numbers, but word travels quickly amongst employees in small resort towns, and the local traffic backs the numbers up. 

For investors, this time requires extra caution and a long-term view. Most rental pro formas only provide a couple of years of data, especially for properties recently converted to short-term rentals. The last couple of years were the hottest short-term rental market in history with the flight from cities, work-from-home (or work-from-vacation-rental), and a bustling Central Oregon. Do not expect the future to provide the same rental income as the recent past. In 2008, I witnessed many, many people lose property after property, relying on rents and investment incomes that were not sustainable. With investor lending rates well past 8% in most cases, real estate investing is not the slam dunk many portray. If you use leverage to invest in real estate in a market of declining prices, potentially declining rents, and higher vacancy rates, feeding that property from your income every month can quickly become a burden. The investment side of real estate may be moving towards more typical scenarios, with terms like "cash flow" falling by the wayside.

Take my musings however you like; I speak to people with a different view of the market daily. However, a conservative, well-thought-out approach never hurts. Less leverage and a longer view will always benefit real estate investors. Here's an interesting statistic for anyone speculating on real estate investments. New construction accounts for Eighteen of the ninety-three homes in La Pine, built-in 2022 or later, with a median cumulative days on the market of 189, three of those homes listed over 400 days, and three more over 300 days. Sixty-seven of the 208 homes in Redmond have a construction completion date of 2022 or later, with a median of fifty-eight days on the market. Real estate downturns always start in the outlying areas, and La Pine is more at risk than Redmond. Keep this in mind when you are home shopping!

For those looking to purchase this year, I encourage you to make offers below the asking price. Especially at the high end, there is a strong chance that sellers will pull many properties available today from the market if we head into a prolonged downturn. Today could be one of the best opportunities to get a great price before the economy turns around and prices climb again. While many will read this report as doom and gloom, buyers across Central Oregon are salivating at the thought of lower prices. Please reach out if you have a different perspective or need my help with your real estate strategy. 

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Central Oregon is a haven for fishing enthusiasts, boasting a wealth of pristine lakes, rivers, and streams that provide exceptional angling experiences. If you're passionate about fishing and are considering buying a house in this picturesque region, you're in for a treat. From the majestic Deschutes River to the tranquil lakes nestled amidst stunning landscapes, Central Oregon offers a variety of options for avid anglers to cast their lines.

Looking for houses for sale in Central Oregon that will allow you to take advantage of this fishing paradise? Whether it's a place to retire, a vacation home, or your new primary residence, we can help you find it. Contact us any time, and keep reading for more information about different areas in the Central Oregon region.

Bend

Bend is a vibrant city known for its outdoor recreation opportunities, and it's a fantastic choice for fishing enthusiasts. The Deschutes River, which winds through Bend, is famous for its impressive populations of rainbow trout, brown trout, and native redside trout. The Old Mill District and Drake Park offer accessible spots for fishing, while the Deschutes River Trail provides scenic pathways for anglers to explore. Buying a house in Bend allows you to enjoy both urban amenities and world-class fishing experiences.

It is also centrally located in the region, making it easy to plan a quick weekend getaway or day trip to fish at one of the many popular spots in the state.

Sunriver

Sunriver is a resort community located just south of Bend, and it's an ideal destination for fishing enthusiasts seeking a tranquil retreat. The Deschutes River flows through Sunriver, providing ample opportunities for fishing. The nearby Fall River is renowned for its consistent hatches and abundant rainbow trout. With its serene setting and access to various fishing spots, Sunriver is a dream location for those looking to combine a relaxing lifestyle with excellent fishing prospects.

Sisters

Sisters is a charming town surrounded by natural beauty and outdoor adventures. The Metolius River, known for its crystal-clear waters and healthy populations of trout, is a mecca for fly fishing enthusiasts. The town's proximity to the Metolius River, as well as other nearby fishing spots like Suttle Lake and Whychus Creek, makes it an attractive choice for anglers who value peaceful surroundings and exceptional fishing opportunities.

Prineville

Prineville is situated in the heart of Central Oregon and offers access to several lakes and reservoirs that are teeming with fish. Prineville Reservoir is known for its warm-water fishery, hosting species like bass, crappie, and rainbow trout.

Ochoco Reservoir and Walton Lake are also popular fishing destinations in the area. Buying a house in Prineville gives you easy access to various fishing experiences, whether you're interested in casting your line in still waters or exploring larger reservoirs.

La Pine

La Pine is a rustic community surrounded by forests, lakes, and rivers. The Deschutes River flows through the area, providing excellent opportunities for trout fishing. Additionally, the Wickiup Reservoir is known for its trophy-sized brown trout and kokanee salmon. With its natural beauty and proximity to fishing hotspots, La Pine is an attractive choice for anglers looking for a quieter way of life.

To learn more about one of these areas or find homes for sale in Central Oregon, contact us any time.

On August 29, 2023, the national average for a fixed-rate 30-year mortgage was 6.03%. This morning, the same mortgage is 7.12%. This morning's rate is an improvement from earlier this week, but more than a point higher than last year is significant. However, the market's mood feels similar to last year when rates were rising, and buyers were either priced out of a particular price point or pulled back to see what happened next. 

Reporting on Jerome Powell's ramblings at Jackson Hole feels tedious as he stubbornly sticks to his mantra of further rate increases and promises to hold policy at restrictive levels for longer. Powell cited an economy that is not cooling, Gross Domestic Product above expectations, robust consumer spending, the housing sector picking up, and above-trend growth as reasons to stay the course. Powell did not mention the administration's penchant for printing dollars, with the annual deficit increasing in one seventy-day stretch this year by a whopping 750 Billion Dollars. The Federal Reserve has a mandate to communicate with Congress to help with monetary policy, something Powell seems reluctant to do. To say the Fed is fighting a losing battle is an understatement, but he reaffirmed that the policy of reaching 2% annual inflation remains. 

I haven't been shy about expressing my disdain for how CPI and inflation are portrayed and manipulated, and a visit to shawdowstats.com reveals an entirely different perspective from what the mainstream media reports. Whichever number you believe, inflation numbers are an annual or a month-over-month increase. Even the 2% target is an increase, and in many ways, the steep increases of the last few years are locked in. 

Are we in a housing bubble? A significant recession could bring down inflation and, ultimately, home prices. However, depending on who you listen to, the economy is either doing well, headed for a soft landing, or on a steep nose-dive. Perspective is everything as you evaluate your situation. 

This morning in Deschutes County, the inventory of actively listed single-family homes increased slightly to 889. The median list price is 830k at sixty-one days on the market. This week in 2022, 929 homes were listed at a median of 730k. There were sixty-six pending sales in Deschutes County this week compared to sixty-nine in 2022, with sixty-one sales, down six from last year. The days on the market this week are similar to this week in 2022. 

Year-to-date 2022 in Deschutes County shows 2935 sales at a median of 691k. As of this morning, there have been 2128 sales at a median of 650k for 2023. Using the median price for the entire county does not account for variation in the type of homes sold but shows an overall trend lower in 2023. Before the Fed doubled down on raising rates further, there was reason to believe the median sale price to close out this year would be flat over 2022. However, judging by the pace of sales and the expectation of even higher rates, it is increasingly likely that prices will be down slightly at year-end. 

I remain bullish on Central Oregon, and the continued flight from large cities to smaller, recreationally minded areas is a big part of that. Bend and the surrounding communities have a tremendous appeal that isn't going away. Although, in some ways, it feels like August 2008. 

"Remember...if all the headlines are identical, it's not news, it's advertising."  ~Jason Bassler

The Bassler quote always comes to mind when I read over and over again how what is going on in the housing markets is "different this time." Markets don't fail in the same ways as in the past but succumb to new issues. So, in that sense, things probably are different this time. Some of the significant problems that could be of concern are commercial real estate, the short-term rental markets, and punitively high mortgage interest rates. I don't think anyone has an easy solution to the 30% vacancy rate in San Francisco commercial properties, and there is little doubt that the markets are awash with short-term rentals. Whether these issues are a catalyst remains to be seen, but exercising caution with any purchase over the next several months would be prudent. 

Chicken Little predictions aside, well-priced homes in Central Oregon are still selling, and there is no reason to believe much will change in the remaining weeks before winter weather and the holiday season bring about our annual slowdown. As always, a long-term focus on real estate will serve you well. Fall is typically a great time for buyers, and this year is no different. Qualified buyers will have less competition than in recent years, and many sellers are motivated to close by year-end. If you have any questions about the Central Oregon housing market, I am always here to help.

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Bend, often referred to as the "Outdoor Playground of the West," is a city that offers a unique blend of natural beauty, outdoor activities, and a vibrant community. With its growing job market and quality of life, Bend has become an attractive destination for young professionals seeking a balance between work and recreation. If you are seeking that ideal work-life balance, check out this list of some of the popular neighborhoods in Bend that are particularly appealing to young professionals.

Downtown Bend

Downtown Bend is the heart of the city and a prime location for young professionals. It's where you'll find an eclectic mix of restaurants, bars, coffee shops, and boutique stores. The area hosts various cultural events and festivals, making it a lively and dynamic place to live. Downtown Bend is also home to several tech companies, offering employment opportunities for those in the industry. Housing options in this area include apartments, condos, and townhomes, making it convenient for young professionals looking for a shorter commute and a low maintenance home.

Old Mill District

The Old Mill District is a trendy neighborhood located along the Deschutes River. It's a hub for shopping, dining, and cultural activities. Young professionals are drawn to this area for its urban amenities, proximity to outdoor recreation, and the picturesque riverfront. The Les Schwab Amphitheater in the Old Mill District hosts concerts and events, making it easy to access live entertainment any time. The district also offers a mix of apartments and condos, some with river views, to provide a scenic atmosphere without being far from the action.

NorthWest Crossing

NorthWest Crossing is a thoughtfully planned neighborhood with a strong sense of community. It's known for its charming streets, parks, and a neighborhood center with shops and restaurants. Young professionals looking for a family-friendly environment often choose this area. The neighborhood offers a mix of housing options, including single-family homes, townhouses, and apartments, all with a convenient location.

Westside Bend

The Westside of Bend is a picturesque neighborhood characterized by tree-lined streets and historic homes. Young professionals are attracted to the Westside for its character and easy access to the Deschutes River and recreational opportunities. The area has a mix of restaurants, coffee shops, and breweries. Housing options range from classic Craftsman-style homes to modern condos, providing diverse choices for residents.

Eastside Bend

Eastside Bend offers a more affordable living option compared to some of the other neighborhoods in the city. It is a diverse community with a mix of housing types, including single-family homes and apartments. The area is known for its friendly atmosphere and community events and while it may have a more suburban feel, it's still close to outdoor recreation and a short drive from the city center.

Awbrey Butte

For young professionals seeking a higher-end living experience with beautiful views, Awbrey Butte is an attractive option. This upscale neighborhood offers panoramic views of the Cascade Mountains and the city. It's known for its spacious homes and luxurious properties. While it's a bit further from the downtown core, the natural beauty and serenity make it a sought-after neighborhood for those who value tranquility and privacy.

Ready to learn more about homes for sale in Bend? We love to help people find their ideal property in the area. Contact us any time to learn more about finding your home in Central Oregon.

At this time last year, the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 5.77%, on its way to a peak of 7.24% in mid-October. On this Wednesday last August, there were 928 single-family homes listed in Deschutes County, down slightly from peak 2022 at 972 on August 10. By the first week of October last year, available homes for sale began declining. Inventory at this time of year typically bounces around based on activity, so today's active listings of 883, an increase of eighteen from last week, is not unheard of. However, the 30-year fixed-rate national average yesterday afternoon was 7.49%. 

You can easily find any opinion you want from experts in the real estate industry about which market dynamic will create more inventory. One of the analysts I follow opines that rising mortgage rates increase inventory, an opinion that is generally not shared in most media publications. In the short term, in Central Oregon, rising rates have not increased inventory because sales have been consistently strong. With Labor Day just around the corner and the change of seasons rapidly approaching, there is little reason to believe there will be a significant surge in new listings between now and the seasonal slowdown. I expect inventory to bounce around for another few weeks before settling into a steady decline into spring.

Pending sales this week declined by twenty-one to seventy-one, while sold properties were down one at sixty-eight. This week last year was particularly robust for pending sales at one-hundred-three, but overall, the pace of sales year-over-year has been similar. The median pending sale price this week in 2022 was 725k compared to this week's 699k. 

The low availability of homes for sale keeps prices firmer than many would expect based on mortgage interest rates, and I do not expect any significant changes this year. However, I also do not see prices increasing, and 2023 is looking to finish the year with a slightly lower median sale price from last year. Once again, my predictions at the beginning of the year fell woefully short of reality! You might recall that I called for an increase of the median sale price of 9% and mortgage rates by this time of year in the high 5% range, two numbers that, in retrospect, were outlandish. Even though I have been skeptical of the Fed's assessment of inflation (transitory!) I believed rising rates would have had a more immediate impact on the economy, tempering increases by this time of the year. I never subscribed to the quick rate pivot many analysts predicted, but I also didn't expect further increases as we close out 2023, which now seems guaranteed. 

Real estate activity in Central Oregon decreases significantly through the winter, with the low point of active inventory in 2023 at the beginning of March at 485 single-family homes listed. Looking forward to 2024, this will be an essential metric to track as an early indicator of how next year's market is shaping up. While rate increases from the Fed could be in the rearview mirror this spring, it will be interesting to see how the economy overall reacts. From today's vantage point, it is reasonable to expect mortgage rates in the high six percent range this spring, but I would not plan for much lower. I wouldn't be surprised if rates stay stubbornly entrenched near seven percent. 

Not surprisingly, not every real estate market in the western United States performs equally. The incredible demographic shift over the last few years looks to be a continuing trend, with new residents to Central Oregon coming from far and wide. Decreased availability of homes for sale in Bend and the surrounding communities is an emerging long-term trend, not just an anomaly. With so much pent-up buyer demand, an increase in homes for sale or slightly lower prices would, in all likelihood, set off a buying frenzy, setting a floor for home prices. The home market is in continuous flux, but the string of events required to bring prices down considerably in Central Oregon seems unlikely. Without reversing work-from-home policies, a turnaround of conditions in the large West Coast metro areas, and a change in firmly established migration patterns, I expect the Central Oregon housing market to remain relatively stable.

Considering that I just admitted to being far off the mark in my predictions for 2023, my predictions for a stable Central Oregon housing market for next year may seem off-base. But, being over-prepared will never hurt if you are still on the sidelines as a buyer or weighing your options as a seller. However, anyone who plans to move to Central Oregon in any reasonable timeframe and plans for a market drop is likely expecting more than the market will deliver. 

Now, more than ever, looking at housing with a long-term view is essential. Even experienced contractors are shying away from fix-and-flips as the prospects of turning any property quickly at a profit diminish. I recommend the same long-term approach when evaluating income-producing properties, particularly short-term rentals. Remember that rental performance for short-term rentals over the last couple of years was unprecedented in Central Oregon and may not perform as well in the future. I am not discouraging investors from considering many of the excellent investment options available, but a shift in focus will help adequately evaluate any potential investments. 

Please do not hesitate to reach out if you need reliable, up-to-date information about the Central Oregon housing market.

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