This morning, the national average for a 30-year jumbo mortgage sits at 6.25%, the lowest since May 2023. The S&P 500 this morning is $6,588, a 98.49% increase over the past five years. While home prices in Central Oregon have been mostly flat since 2022, there are many reasons to be optimistic about our housing market, with population growth predicted to continue. Central Oregon doesn't have a corner on this growth, as smaller, recreationally focused areas throughout the country are experiencing similar growth patterns. I caution anyone, regardless of price point, against the hopes of "quick money" flipping real estate. Still, with a longer timeline, there is little doubt real estate will continue its upward trajectory. Conditions in Central Oregon this fall are the best buyers have seen in several years. While sellers need to be realistic and take the increased competition into account, the median sale price is rising, albeit slightly.
Listings of single-family properties in Deschutes County between $1 million and $1,999,999 dropped by six to 369 this morning. The steady activity in the market has generally encouraged sellers to list well into the later part of peak selling season. Over the period from 2020 to 2024, inventory had already started the steady, sometimes rapid decline into winter. This year, activity remains steady, along with supply. Eighteen pending sales at an average of $1,333,611 this week, with seventeen closed transactions averaging $1,356,117, are consistent with our weekly activity over the past several weeks.
Between $2 million and $2,999,999, inventory decreased by five, now at 94 single-family listings. It was a strong week for pending sales, with three at an average of $2,441,170. One transaction closed in Broken Top at $2,275,000, a reduction from the asking price of 12.07%. The final price for this home is consistent with similar properties in the neighborhood. Again, prices since 2022 are mostly flat, and sellers testing the market at a 20% premium are finding out that buyers are not responding.
Homes listed over $3 million in Deschutes County are flat at forty-eight. One house on Fryrear Road is pending at a list price of $4,500,000. There were no closed transactions this week. The pending sale is a 94-acre parcel with an unfinished home. Considering the state of completion, the negotiated closing price will likely be below the asking price, which I will report when the transaction closes.
Crook County inventory over $1 million is up by one to 65 listings. Two pending sales, with one just west of town at $1,074,000, and the other at $1,299,999 in Post to the east of Prineville, were put under contract by buyers this week. There were three closed transactions this week, one in Brasada Ranch at $1,050,000, another at $1,810,000 at Mountain View Estate in Powell Butte, and the last at $1,950,000 in West Powell Butte Estates.
The total listings for farm properties in Deschutes County over $1 million decreased by one to sixteen, with no pending sales this week. One farm property transaction closed this week at $1,250,000 in Alfalfa for 83.33% of the original asking price. Crook County farm listings over $1 million are stable at fourteen with no pending or closed transactions.
I hear much speculation about the state of the housing market and the economy in general, much of it inaccurate. While the stock market isn't necessarily a direct reflection of the economy in general, the continued upward trajectory for equity markets is notable. Historically, home prices increase ~3.5%, a level that closely matches the performance of Central Oregon real estate today. Transaction volume is outpacing the past two years after a steep drop in 2023 from the highs seen in 2020 through 2022. As for 2026, predicting the market's direction will be challenging until we see where inventory bottoms out in late winter to early spring and how quickly new listings rebuild supply. However, with mortgage rates trending down, there is a strong chance that supply next year will be down from the highs witnessed in 2025.
