My Weekly Central Oregon Real Estate Blog

Mortgage rates have been slightly declining since the 30-year fixed-rate Jumbo mortgage peaked at 7.26% in January of this year. The national average rate this morning for Jumbo loans is 6.70%, and judging by the graph of rates, rates will likely continue to soften through the end of summer. To be sure, the change from the beginning of the year is small, but as rates decrease, activity increases.

This morning in Deschutes County, there are 419 single-family homes priced between $1 million and $2 million, a decrease of four from last week. Fifteen pending sales with an average price decrease of -10.26% occurred this week. Fourteen transactions closed this week, with the average reduction at -7.07%.

Homes listed between $2 million and $3 million decreased from 105 to 104 listings. There were two pending sales and two closed transactions, with the average decrease in pending sales at 2.01%, and no price changes to the closed transactions.

Inventory in Deschutes County over $3 million increased from 46 to 48, with one pending sale at $4,800,000 and one closed transaction at $5,200,000. There were no price changes in either of the pending or closed transactions.

Crook County inventory over $1 million also increased, from 74 to 75 active listings. There were two pending sales this week at an average of $1,749,500, and one sale in Brasada Ranch at $2,325,000 that sold for -7.96% less than the asking price.

The year-to-date comparison to 2024 reveals some interesting trends about our market:

In Crook County in 2024, there were 29 YTD sales over $1 million, at an average of $1,506,983. In 2025, there were 23 sales, with an average of $1,606,421. This comparison is really an analysis of Powell Butte and Brasada Ranch, as the overwhelming majority of the higher-priced sales occur in these areas.

In Deschutes County YTD 2024, between $1 million and $2,999,999, there were 439 sales, averaging $1,467,469. So far in 2025, there have been 463 sales averaging $1,511,208, showing increased activity and reasonable price increases.

However, the sales over $3 million in Deschutes County tell a different story. Year-to-date 2024, 21 sales averaged $4,159,125, compared to 24 sales in 2025, with an average of $3,651,166.

The decrease in the average sale price for the high-end market in Deschutes County is interesting. There is no denying that more homes are selling, with the number closer to $3 million than last year. Considering the relatively small number of sales in the high-end and increased activity in the second half of the year, the gap could narrow as the remainder of summer unfolds. Last year, there were 37 sales over $3 million, and with the pace of sales this year, that leaves ~15 more sales this year still to come. Unless some of the more exclusive properties close this year, 2025 stands to close out with a significant reduction in the average sale price of high-end properties. I caution against an assumption that prices are collapsing for high-end sales. In 2025 YTD, there were three sales over $5 million compared to two this year. All of these numbers could change dramatically with a single sale.

Analysing the market over $3 million can be challenging, as the diversity of location, amenities, views, and exclusivity all play an outsized role in the price a property commands. This segment of the market requires a property-by-property analysis and time to market to the broadest audience to find the right buyer.Pricing correctly in today's market is crucial! 

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Anyone who has been wishing for lower mortgage interest rates will be happy to learn that the 30-year fixed-rate conventional average this morning is 6.58%, the lowest point since a brief dip last September. The decrease in interest rates coincides with a busy season for home sales, and unsurprisingly, activity is robust. With many sellers anxious to move properties before the winter, this is proving to be the best buying conditions in several years.

Supply continues the seasonal decline in Deschutes County, with 1,522 single-family homes listed, a decrease of twenty-two from last week. It was another strong week of pending sales at 87, with fifty-one of those properties reducing the list price by an average of 7.13% before securing a contract. Seventy closed transactions are the most in more than five weeks, with exactly half of those sales negotiated below the list price by an average of 6.23%. The average price per square foot for the sold homes this week was $399.

Crook County inventory finally decreased this week after steadily increasing each week since February. This morning's inventory shows 248 listings, down by eight from last week. Pending sales were robust at fourteen, with nine of those properties decreasing the list price by an average of 6.08% before finding a buyer. Six transactions closed, with three negotiating a price below the listing price by an average of 5.49%. The average price per square foot of the closed transactions was $335.

Jefferson County's inventory is stable and still increasing slightly, up by two from last week. Pending sales remain steady, with five this week, and only one price change of -2.28% before securing a buyer. Sales match last week at seven, with four negotiating a price below the listing price. The sold-to-original list price ratio this week was 89.83%, and the average price per square foot was $312.

There will be great buying opportunities through the end of the year and into spring 2026, but the available inventory today gives buyers a selection not seen in several years. If mortgage rates continue to decline, more buyers will step up, and the chances of building inventory to today's levels decrease. There are always homes for sale and opportunities, but it is a relief for buyers to have options. Not that many years ago, during the pandemic peak, at any given price point, buyers were lucky to have a handful of options. Tight supply applied upward pressure on prices, and many homes sold for more than they would have otherwise. It is correct that prices are softening, but that is directly related to competition from other homes. The housing market in Central Oregon is still strong, but is favoring buyers more than in several years. 

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The housing market in Central Oregon remains strong, bolstered by consistent growth, predicted to continue for several years. This year in particular, the luxury market is outperforming the overall market, but the market below $1 million is still doing well. In 2023, YTD home sales of single-family homes totalled 1,491, 1,506 in 2024, and 1,481 this year. The median sale price for sales below $1 million in 2023 was $590k, in 2024 it was $635k, and in 2025 $620k. The slight decrease YTD on the median sale price this year is primarily attributed to increased inventory, creating more competition between sellers not seen in several years.

Over $1 million, sales in 2023 totalled 360, with 441 in 2024, and 466 YTD in 2025. The median sale prices during these periods were $1,356,000 in 2023, $1,375,000, and 1,430,00 so far in 2025. Activity in the high-end of the market is on pace to exceed last year's total, with the median sale price increasing. None of these numbers represents a massive change, but the stability is notable in the face of higher interest rates.

This morning in Deschutes County, listings between $1 million and $1,999,999 total 423, up by two from last week. Nineteen pending sales with ten price changes match last week's volume, with the average price reduction for the ten sales at -10.29%. The average price deductions are increasing as we get closer to fall, with many sellers ready to negotiate to make a sale. Seventeen transactions closed this week, with five reducing the price by an average of -8.55%.

Inventory of single-family homes in Deschutes County between $2 million and $2,999,999 remains at 105 this week. There were two pending sales, one at $2,450,000 and the other at $2,445,000, with no price reduction before securing a contract. Four homes sold with one price reduction at -10.59%.

There are forty-six homes listed above $3 million, a decrease of three from last week. Two pending sales occurred at $3,595,000 and $4,099,000, with the average reduction before securing a contract at -7.98%. There were two closed transactions at $3,300,000 and $5,350,000 with no price reductions.

There wasn't any activity in the Deschutes or Crook County farm listings over $1 million.

Crook County listings over $1 million increased by one to 74, with one pending sale at $2,485,000 in Brasada Ranch. The Brasada Ranch pending sale reduced the asking price by 7.96% before securing a buyer. One transaction closed this week at $1,100,000, with the price reduced by 6.27%.

The trends of increased price reductions and steady activity will continue through Labor Day and beyond, before our seasonal slowdown heading into the holiday season. No matter whether you are buying or selling, the steady activity is making for the best conditions seen in several years, with the market slightly favoring buyers. Setting prices high is not an effective strategy for sellers, even with strong market conditions in the luxury market. That doesn't mean sellers need to price at deep discounts, and in most cases, sale prices are exceeding those of recent years. However, buyers today are sensitive to value, and are not jumping on over-priced listings. A great example of this was a recent auction sale on Dodds Road near Alfalfa. The Dodds Road property was initially listed nearly a year ago at $10.9 million, was reduced to $9.9 million, and just sold at auction for $5.38 million. I believed from the start that the property was grossly overpriced, and the auction results prove that. Pricing correctly in today's market is crucial! 

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While I do not expect the Fed to lower the overnight rate in today's meeting, mortgage rates have been trending down over the last few weeks, with the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 6.77% this morning. I doubt the slight downtick in rates is much of a factor in another robust week of activity in Central Oregon, and attribute it mainly to the seasonal push towards fall. With inventory higher than at any time over the last several years, buyers have selection, and sellers have competition. Activity is steady throughout Central Oregon, but the dynamics are not equal across all price points or between the three counties of our region. Deschutes County is experiencing a shrinking pool of homes for sale, while Crook and Jefferson counties are still seeing growth. And the activity in the Luxury Markets is picking up, as you can read about in my Friday Luxury Market Report.

Deschutes County inventory declined for the second consecutive week, a strong indication that we are past the peak for listings in 2025. This morning, there are 1,544 homes for sale in the county, nineteen fewer than last week. Eighty-seven pending sales match the biggest week of 2025, and the most since October 2, 2024. Sixty-seven homes closed this week at an average of $915,803, with the average price reduction 5.54%.

Crook County inventory increased this week to 256 single-family listings, up nine from last week. The different regions of Central Oregon all have their nuance, and the differences between inventory trends between Crook County and the rest of the region illustrate that clearly. Six pending sales match last week at an average of $481,467, and seven closed transactions averaging $688,296 round out this week's data. The average price reduction for the closed transactions was 7.98%.

Jefferson County also had an increase in inventory this week, up by eleven to 131 single-family listings. This increase is a healthy inventory level for the county, and a sharp contrast with the sixty-six listings available this week in 2022. Five pending sales averaging $439,540 and seven closed transactions averaging $474,747 are substantial numbers consistent with recent weeks. The average price reduction for the closed sales this week was 11%, proof that buyers are in a reasonably strong position heading into fall.

The data in this report is an excellent way to track overall trends, but it glosses over individual neighborhoods, different price points, and doesn't account for unique properties. Reading my Friday Luxury Market Report helps to shed some light on the various segments of our housing market, with data for Deschutes County between $1 million $2 million, $2 million $3 million, and over $3 million. In this Friday's report, I will contrast sales activity and price trends above and below the 1 million dollar mark to better illustrate how the market is trending. Ultimately, a buyer's situation and needs are more important than price trends. Still, sellers' willingness to negotiate, competition, and moderately lower mortgage rates are combining to create real relief for stretched buyers.  

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This week in Deschutes County, the broader market saw a marked decrease in the inventory of single-family homes, a trend also evident in the luxury market. In Deschutes County in 2024, the shift towards decreasing supply occurred in the second week of August, following a peak of 1,322 homes listed for sale. This year's peak appears to have been last week at 1,582, nearly a month earlier than last year. As fewer sellers choose to list properties, and buyers grab what is available, the dynamic shifts heading into the fall season. List prices decrease, and negotiations below the asking price are common at this time of year. In most cases, the overall price trends are stable, with unrealistic sellers adjusting back to the market price being the bigger factor.

In Deschutes County this morning, there are 421 single-family homes listed between $1 million and $1,999,999, a decrease of thirteen from last week. There were nineteen pending sales at an average list price of $1,378,363, with thirteen of those homes reducing the list price before securing a contract. The average price decrease of those thirteen homes was -11.59%. Fourteen transactions closed with a median days listed of 28, and an average sale price of $1,311,642. Nine of the closed transactions negotiated below the list price.

Between $2 million and $2,999,999, there are 105 listings, down one from last week. Four pending sales, averaging $2,552,500, occurred this week, with only one of those properties reducing the sale price before securing a buyer. There was one sale on Theater Drive, along the Deschutes River in Bend, for $2.5 million, initially listed for $2,995,000. The sellers of the Theater Drive sale made a quick correction to the price, as the home had only been on the market for 33 days. This property last sold in 2019 for $2,035,000, a 22.85% gross increase.

Listings over $3 million in Deschutes County decreased by four, now showing 49 homes for sale. Three pending sales this week are the most since I started tracking this data in early March. The first of the three, initially listed for $3,495,000, was subsequently listed for $3,295,000 when it went under contract. The second, in Broken Top, listed for $4,195,000 and dropped to $3,390,000 before securing a buyer. The last in Tetherow was on the market for only eight days at $4,075,000.

Crook County inventory over $1 million increased by one to 73 listings, with the only activity coming from a single pending sale at $1,195,000 in Powell Butte. There were no closed transactions this week. While the Powell Butte and Brasada Ranch sales are steady, these areas account for the overwhelming majority of sales exceeding $1 million in Crook County. There is no question that these are beautiful, desirable locations, but I would caution anyone to strongly consider the overall market in Crook County luxury before making a decision. There are some fantastic values in these locations, but a long-term focus is required to achieve reasonable appreciation.

Deschutes County Farm listings over $1 million decreased by one to sixteen, with no pending or closed transactions. Crook County Farm listings remain at eleven with no pending or closed transactions.

A shift is taking place in our market, some of which is related to typical seasonal activity. However, many sellers today seem to understand that pie-in-the-sky pricing isn't working, and they are making adjustments to get back to prices that today's market will bear. After years of rising prices, I certainly do not blame sellers for trying to secure the highest price possible. Adjusting expectations in a changing market takes time for anyone to accept. This shift doesn't alter the demand for excellent properties, but there is a limit to what a buyer is willing to pay. While very desirable properties are selling quickly, there are still some fantastic opportunities for negotiation available in the market today. I anticipate steady activity through October, as this is really "peak selling season" in Central Oregon. 

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This morning, the national average for a fixed-rate conventional mortgage is 6.77%, the lowest in two weeks. The number of homes listed for sale in Central Oregon is at its highest level in several years, and price decreases are prevalent as sellers attempt to position themselves for a sale before the seasonal slowdown in activity. It is no understatement to describe this as the best buying conditions in some time. Yet, despite the fantastic selection and motivation of sellers, I hear a lot of talk about waiting for mortgage rates to decline. For the record, I do not anticipate a significant drop in rates until 2027. If you read the forecasts of major banks, you will see that I am not alone in my assessment.

For reference, the monthly payment difference on an $800,000 loan between 6.8% and 6% is ~$325/month ($4,714 vs. $4,379), while the payment on a $900,000 loan at 5% is $4,406. The chances of rates decreasing to 5% before 2027 are increasingly small, but a drop in rates to 6% would unquestionably bring a wave of buyers to the market. Across the board, home prices have remained stable through the period of higher rates. An increase in demand, which would lead to a decrease in supply, will inevitably result in price increases. Taking all of this into consideration, it is clear that the swing in potential monthly savings is smaller than many might imagine.

Supply is beginning to wane in Deschutes County, as fewer new listings hit the market, and buyer demand picks up heading into fall. This morning, there are 1,563 single-family homes listed, down by nineteen from last week. A total of 81 pending sales, averaging $958,039, occurred this week, with more than half (47) reducing the list price before securing a contract. The average price reduction for the pending sales was -7.13%. Sixty-nine transactions closed this week at an average price of $811,239, with an average price negotiated down by 4.69%. In many cases, price reductions compound, with a list price decrease followed by a negotiated price below the asking price, resulting in a discount of more than 10%.

Crook County supply decreased by one to 247 single-family listings. Six pending sales are averaging $620,650, with an average price decrease of 10.21% before securing a buyer. Three closed transactions occurred at an average price of $417,665, with an average negotiated price 11.37% below the list price. Two of the three closed sales illustrate the type of scenarios I am seeing in today's market: one home originally listed for $472k, dropped the asking price to $430k, and closed at $420k, while another started at $499k, decreased the list price to $430k, and closed at $418k. Those sales represent 11.02% and 16.23% total decreases!

Jefferson County inventory remains steady, increasing by one this week to 120 single-family listings. One pending sale at a list price of $317,950 showed a price increase of 0.63%, a figure not uncommon for new construction. The builder may have added central air or some other feature that increased the asking price. Three transactions closed this week at an average price of $516,333, with an average discount of 9.55% below the asking price.

The prices buyers are negotiating, combined with sellers dropping the list price on homes, are significantly helping buyers' bottom lines. Mortgage interest rates are only one piece of the puzzle, and not always the most important one. If you purchase a home at a lower price because of favorable market conditions, and refinance the loan when rates decrease, the average cost per month over the time you own the property will decrease. This strategy enables you to capitalize on a lower sales price today and potentially lower rates in the future.

Using the example above of a home purchased for $800,000 and financed at 6.8%, the increased cost of ownership over two years compared to a 6% mortgage rate would be $8,040. If my example holds, and the same home would cost $900,000 once rates decrease to 5%, it would cost you $91,960 more to purchase the property. Using a 20% down payment, the $900,000 would mean an additional $ 20,000 in down payment. I cannot emphasize enough how favorable the conditions are today! 

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Except for the listings over $3M, every segment I track in the luxury market experienced a decline in inventory this week. Activity remains steady as we begin the last busy stretch of the season, before naturally tapering off towards Fall. The YTD sales over $3M are still ahead of last year, but only slightly, with twenty-two sales in 2025, and twenty by this point in 2024. While the closed transaction gap may have narrowed, I anticipate a solid finish to the summer selling season.

Listings in Deschutes County between $1 million and $1,999,999 decreased by three to 434. The trend of increased activity I mentioned in my Wednesday report continues, with a robust twenty pending sales. There were thirteen closed transactions this week, with six properties negotiating a lower price by an average of -8.68%.

There are five fewer listings this week between $2 million and $2,999,999, with the level this morning at 106. There were four pending sales, with one in Pronghorn, where the seller had reduced the price by 22.22% before securing a buyer. Pricing in Pronghorn can be tricky, and the original list price was overly aggressive for that market. One transaction closed at $2 million, barely making it into this price tranche.

Two new listings were added to the Deschutes County market over $3 million, bringing the total to fifty-three. There were no pending sales, and one closed transaction in Bend's desirable North Rim Community at $3,740,000.

Inventory above $1 million in Crook County decreased by two, now at seventy-two listings. There were two pending sales in Brasada Ranch at $1,095,000 and $1,749,000, with one pending sale in West Powell Butte Estates at $1,399,000. There were no closed transactions this week.

Farm inventory in Deschutes County decreased by three to 17 listings, and also reduced by three in Crook County to eleven listings. There were no pending or closed transactions in either county this week.

It will be interesting to see how the market in Deschutes County listings over $3 million transpires over the next several weeks. By no means is the activity slow, and we are still slightly ahead of last year's pace. In 2022, there were 37 sales over $3 million, with 18 in 2023, and 37 again in 2024. For reference, in 2021, 32 sales exceeded $3 million, compared to 18 in 2020 and three in 2019. In 2018, one sale closed for over $3 million, while none closed in 2017, and two closed in 2016. There is no question that properties over $3 million in Deschutes County are a developing trend. I will save my commentary about debased currency for another day! 

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Mortgage rates are trending downward ever so slightly, inventory growth is slowing, and activity is increasing. For those of you looking to buy or sell in 2025, the next several weeks are shaping up to be a busy period. For buyers, the presence of motivated sellers is making life easier, as increased competition from inventory has altered the landscape. For sellers, as has been the case for most of this year, accurately pricing for today's market is key, which requires careful analysis of individual properties to gauge marketability.

Activity in Deschutes County pending sales this week exceeded every week of this year and is the highest since October 2, 2024, with 87 pending sales. The median number of days listed for pending sales was 33, with an average list price of $935,158. Sixty-seven transactions closed this week at an average of $931,876. Inventory rose slightly to 1,582 single-family listings, up by seven from last week.

Crook County pending sales were modest this week at four with an average sale price of $1,273,000. All four pending sales are in Powell Butte, with two of those homes situated in Brasada Ranch. Five closed transactions averaging $508,180 were recorded last week, with one in Powell Butte and the rest in Prineville. The inventory increased to 248 single-family listings for this week, up by four from last week.

There were seven pending sales in Jefferson County this week, averaging $418,841, with a notable average price decrease of 10.08% before securing a contract. The three closed transactions also had an average price decrease of 10.5%. In each case, the list price dropped, and buyers negotiated an even lower price below that. Inventory declined by one to 119 single-family listings. As competition with increased inventory has put pressure on prices, sellers are eager to sell properties before year-end, creating some of the best buying opportunities in Central Oregon. I caution anyone inexperienced in fixing and flipping homes in today's market, but for experienced builders or a buyer willing to take on some work themselves, opportunities are emerging.

As new inventory slows heading into the last stretch of peak buying seasons, buyers who have been evaluating the market begin to pick away at the best opportunities. The increased inventory over the previous several years is creating some great opportunities, and homes still on the market as we approach fall are very likely to go for considerably less than the asking price. Of course, not every property is a candidate for extreme negotiation, but savvy buyers who know the market are in a strong position. Now is still a good time to list, thanks to the increased activity; however, sellers need to be very cautious about pricing, unless they are comfortable riding out the season and listing through the winter. It is anyone's guess what the spring market will bring, but Central Oregon real estate remains remarkably stable. 

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>As expected, the numbers this week are subdued after the Fourth of July holiday, but still steady. Inventory growth picked up across every segment I track for the Luxury Market Report, but not significantly. Next week marks the beginning of the last block of the summer selling season, and the upcoming activity will be telling as to the temperament of the market as we head towards fall. Typically, inventory peaks in early August, and I will be watching closely to see when listings flatline and begin to fall. Across all price points for homes in Central Oregon, increased supply is heavily impacting the market.

Before I get into the weekly breakdown, these stats will help evaluate inventory and how much of the market each of the price tranches represents. This morning, there are 1,603 single-family listings across all price points in Deschutes County.

This morning in Deschutes County, the inventory of single-family homes listed between $1 million and $2 million is 437, up by nine from last week. Fourteen sales are pending for the week, with twelve closed transactions, which is reasonable considering the reduced business days due to the holiday.

Inventory between $2 million and $3 million is up by two, now at 111 listings. There were two pending sales and two closed transactions for the week.

Inventory over $3 million has increased by three, now totaling 51 active listings. There were no pending sales for the week, with one closed transaction on Collins Road in Tumalo for $4.3M. This property was listed for 341 days at $4.8M.

In Crook County, inventory over $1 million increased by three, now at 74. There were no pending sales, with one closed transaction at $1.4M, listed for $1.36M. This sale illustrates how desirable properties can still sell over asking price in what could inaccurately be viewed as a slow market.

Deschutes County Farm listings increased by six to twenty, with no pending or closed transactions. Crook County Farm listings grew by three to fourteen, with no pending or closed transactions.

The charts above show small changes in the volume and distribution of sales through the price points, with remarkably similar sales volume, despite significantly more inventory. While this data has limited utility, it does illustrate the slight shift in our market and the increase in activity over $3M.  

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Mortgage interest rates might still be relatively high, but the trend since the end of 2024 has been slightly down, with rates this morning for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional loan at 6.81%. On July 8, 2024, the 30-year rate was 6.94%. While a thirteen-basis-point change may seem small, the trend is undeniably downward. Inventory levels this year are up considerably, while sales volume has increased only slightly. The changes in the housing market may be small, but have unquestionably moved in favor of buyers.

This morning, inventory in Deschutes County is up thirty-two from last week to 1,575 single-family homes. On this day last year, there were 1,257 listings. YTD sales in 2024 were 1,658 compared to 1,665 so far this year. Last week, there were 67 pending sales at an average list price of $810,837, with 47 closed transactions averaging $835,468. The weekly numbers are very close to this week in 2024.

Crook County inventory is up eight to 244 single-family listings. On this week last year there were 160 single-family homes listed. While inventory is up significantly, there have been 194 sales in Crook County YTD compared to 209 on this day in 2024. Four pending sales this week, at an average list price of $612,475, and eight closed transactions, averaging $618,787, are slightly better than this week last year.

Smaller Jefferson County has seen less inventory growth than the rest of Central Oregon, with 120 single-family listings this morning, up one from last week. On this week last year there were 111 listings. Sales in Jefferson County are strong year-to-date, at 135, compared to 118 as of the same period in 2024. There were three pending sales, averaging $506,650, and three closed transactions, averaging $320,616, last week.

With slightly softer mortgage rates and more inventory than we have had in years, now is an excellent time for buyers to engage in the market. The opportunity to negotiate a lower price hasn't been this favorable in some time. In many cases, prices are down enough to help offset the increased borrowing costs associated with higher mortgage rates. However, the median sale price comparisons have not decreased, and they still show overall growth, albeit slight. The potential bargains in our market are on a case-by-case basis, and not a sweeping trend. Home sellers need to be cautious about over-pricing for the market, especially as we head into the later months of the selling season. 

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