My Weekly Central Oregon Real Estate Blog

Mortgage interest rates have remained remarkably stable since adjusting after the last Federal Reserve meeting, with the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage steady at 6.37% this morning. While this may be slightly higher than the pre-meeting lows, this rate is the lowest since January 2023, and buyers are responding. There is no doubt buyers have been waiting for conditions to improve, and increased inventory, lower rates, and motivated sellers as we head into winter have created opportunities.

This week in Deschutes County, we experienced the largest drop in available listings of the year, down 57 to 1,331. On this week last year, there were 1,192 listings of single-family homes, still considerably less than this year's inventory. Seventy-four pending sales this week are up eight from last week, averaging $937,930. Ninety closed transactions are the most since July, averaging $942,319. The data proves that buyers are more active this fall than in the past few years. Seven hundred ninety-six of the active listings in Deschutes County show price reductions.

Crook County Inventory increased by two this week, now at 232 single-family listings. Today's inventory is down from its peak of 256 in late July, but the selection remains high for this time of year. There were seven pending sales, averaging $471,557, and twelve closed transactions, averaging $633,616. With 144 of the active listings showing price reductions, this fall in Crook County is favoring buyers more than any of the past few years.

The Jefferson County inventory is down by five to 131 single-family listings. There were four pending sales averaging $387,450, and three closed transactions averaging $403,555. Two of the pending sales were new construction, showing no price change, with the average price drop of the remaining two pending sales at 19.97%! Of course, not every property is subject to a twenty percent price decrease, but these pending sales are indicative of the deals negotiated today. Seventy-three of the active listings show price reductions.

The activity in today's market, spurred on by lower interest rates, offers a glimpse of the significant pent-up buyer demand that exists. A revealing metric to watch in the coming months will be the extent to which inventory levels drop during the winter and how quickly they rebound in the spring. Considering the downward trend in mortgage interest rates, it seems unlikely that there will be this level of inventory at this time next year. 

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With the inventory of listed single-family homes remaining high this fall, combined with gorgeous weather, the peak selling season has been extended. While transaction volume has softened from mid-summer highs, activity remains steady. Mortgage rates are helping to keep buyers engaged, with the lowest rates in years, except for a brief dip lower before the last Federal Reserve meeting. New listings continue to hit the market, creating selection opportunities worth considering.

This morning in Deschutes County, the availability of homes listed between $1 million and $1,999,999 decreased by only three to 364 houses. After a brief lull in pending sales last week (13), seventeen homes are pending this week at an average of $2,380,588. The trend in this price tranche of sales taking place below the mid-point continues. I chalk this up to the competition of available properties, and many truly exceptional properties just over the $2 million range. Only six transactions closed this week, averaging $1,213,331, the lowest since June.  

Homes in Deschutes County listed between $2 million and $2,999,999 decreased by six, now totaling 92. Pending activity was steady this week at four, averaging $2,398,750. Three closed transactions occurred, one in Black Butte Ranch for $2,050,000, another on the Deschutes River in Three Rivers South for $2,100,000, and the last in Caldera Springs, also in Three Rivers South, for $2,425,000.

For the second consecutive week, the inventory of homes listed for over $3 million in Deschutes County increased by one to 50. There were no pending or closed transactions this week.

Crook County homes listed for over $ 1 million decreased by two, now at 63 listings. There were two pending sales this week, both in Brasada Ranch, listed at $1,45,000 and $1,745,000. One transaction closed, also in Brasada Ranch, at $1,850,000.

Deschutes County Farm listings remain at sixteen with no pending or closed transactions. Crook County farm listings decreased by one to thirteen, with no pending or closed transactions.

While it is correct that lower mortgage rates attract more buyers to the market, thereby lowering inventory and putting upward pressure on prices, this dynamic takes time to work through. With the winter holiday season approaching, along with colder, snowy weather, sellers motivated to close transactions in this calendar year need to be realistic with any offer on the table, especially in light of the increased competition due to more availability. Home prices may be relatively firm, but conditions for buyers are better than at any time over the past few years. If luxury property is on your radar in Central Oregon, now is the time to engage the market to see if something suits your needs.  

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The Federal Reserve delivered the highly anticipated rate decrease (25 basis points) that everyone had been waiting for, but mortgage interest rates initially rose. Mortgage rates align with the trends of the 10-year Treasury note, rather than the Fed's overnight rate, and bond investors have concerns about inflation and other economic aspects that have driven yields higher. However, a closer inspection reveals that mortgage rates are lower on average than they were in the last several weeks. Whenever consensus opinion expects rates to decrease, mortgage rates come down in anticipation of the event, and preceding the Fed meeting, rates adjusted to the lowest level in years at 6.13%. While today's rate is up at 6.37%, overall rates are still lower than the trend leading up to the Fed's rate cut. All in all, conditions this fall favor buyers, with increased selection and moderate interest rates.

There are seven fewer listings in Deschutes County this week than last, now at 1,388. Sixty-six pending sales, at an average of $1,089,557, represent an increase of six from last week and a slight decrease from the volume seen since mid-July. Sixty-five transactions closed at an average of $784,693. The average price reduction for pending sales before securing a buyer was -9.81%, and the average for closed transactions was -6.78%. The sold-to-list ratio for the closed transactions was 97.86%.

Crook County inventory is down twelve from last week, now at 230 single-family listings. Eleven pending sales, averaging $640,882, are consistent with the volume of the past several weeks. Six closed transactions occurred this week, averaging $727,233. The sold-to-list ratio of the closed transactions was 100.07%, with two of the six closed transactions showing price reductions averaging 3.14%.

The inventory of single-family homes in Jefferson County has decreased by one, now standing at 136 listings. Four pending sales occurred, averaging $449,675, with three price changes resulting in an average decrease of 9.52% before a buyer was secured. Two transactions closed at $500,000 (list price $540,000 = 7.4% decrease) and $624,000.

While transaction volume is steady considering the time of year, the decrease from summer highs is keeping inventory elevated. Sellers motivated to move their property this year will need to consider accepting a lower price, which will significantly benefit buyers. Nothing in our diverse market is equally applicable across all properties, but generally speaking, the fall is a great time to purchase. 

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The most notable aspect of the luxury market today is the stubbornly high inventory as we get deeper into the last part of the 2025 season. All in all, the increased selection is excellent news for buyers, and in many ways helps sellers to see exactly how their home (and price) competes in the market. However, the trends today are in direct contrast to the last several years, when the seasonal decline in supply was already happening rapidly. Activity this week slowed relative to the past several weeks, and I speculate that the Fed's rate cuts have contributed to the decrease in buyer demand. That may sound counterintuitive, but whenever rates change, many buyers wait to see if they will drop further. In this case, similar to the last time the Fed lowered rates, mortgage rates rose from recent lows. Whether this becomes the new normal remains to be seen, but bond investors are increasingly concerned with inflation and what is perceived to be "too loose" monetary policy. In any event, the luxury markets show continued stable prices and record-setting transaction volume.

Volume of single-family homes listed in Deschutes County between $1 million and $1,999,999 decreased by only two this week, now at 367 listings. Thirteen pending sales are down from recent weeks, with the average list price of these properties at $1,278,146, and the average price reduction before securing a buyer at 8.93%. Fourteen closed transactions are in line with recent weeks at an average of $1,254,214, and the average price reduction is 12.46%. Notably, the average activity in this price tranche skews towards the lower end of the range.

Supply between $2 million and $2,999,999 increased by four to 98 this week. Two sales are pending: the first at $2,375,000 in Sunrise Village above the Deschutes River, and the second at $2,895,000 in Discovery West. One transaction closed on Hunnel Road at $2,080,000 after 319 days, and originally listed for $2.5 million.

Listings over $3 million in Deschutes County increased by one to forty-nine. One property is pending on Tamoli Road near the Tumalo State Park. This property, listed for 465 days at $9,750,000, sits on 40 acres and, by all measures, is a stunning location and home. Legacy properties at the top of our market take time to attract the right buyer, but demand for these locations remains strong. One home closed this week for $3,085,000 on Celilo Lane in Discovery West. The closed sale was an immediate sale with no days on the market and at full price.

Supply over $1 million in Crook County remains stable at sixty-five. One transaction is pending on Wooden Trestle Lane in Brasada Ranch for $1,399,999 with no closed transactions.

Deschutes County farm listings over $1 million remain stable at sixteen with no pending or closed transactions. Crook County farm listings remain unchanged at fourteen, with no pending or closed transactions.

Despite a consensus from the public that mortgage interest rates are restrictive, in actuality, the opposite is true. If the Fed holds with the message of two more rate decreases by the end of the year, I expect the overall economy and housing to become frothy once again. It will take time for the overall impact to take effect, but mortgage rates in the low to mid 5% range will change the dynamic of the past couple of years dramatically. Take that information however you'd like, but if my predictions hold, many buyers who have waited for rates to decrease might look back longingly at the market we are experiencing today. 

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The consensus is that the Federal Reserve will decrease the overnight rate by 25 basis points today. While I remain skeptical that it will happen, and candidly do not believe it is the right move, my opinion is irrelevant. However, if rates decline, I do not expect mortgage rates to fall below this morning's national average 30-year fixed-rate conventional rate of 6.15%. The markets typically adjust in anticipation of rates coming down, and pre-price rates accordingly. By this time next week, we will know what today's Fed meeting brings to the market.

With mortgage rates decreasing, buyers have been active, and as a result, more sellers are coming to market at a time when inventory is typically in decline. Single-family homes for sale in Deschutes County increased this week by four, now at 1,395. This level is 143 more than this week last year. Four listings isn't an earth-shattering number, but it bucks the trends of the past several years. Sixty pending sales this week are down from recent levels, while 88 closed transactions are an increase, reflecting the strong activity of late summer.

Active listings in Crook County decreased by one to 242 single-family homes. Ten pending sales are strong and consistent with the past several weeks. Nine closed transactions are the most since early July.

The Jefferson County inventory also increased this week to 137 single-family homes on the market. Six pending sales are in line with recent activity, with four closed transactions.

Decreasing mortgage rates and steady activity in the Central Oregon housing market, are drawing out sellers. Listing price decreases are prevalent, but the median sale price is still up from last year. That in no way means there aren't great deals available, but this is a long way from a market collapse in our region. A big part of the equation is competition from increased supply. How long inventory levels stay elevated will be an essential metric to follow over the next few months. Whether mortgage interest rates continue to fall will be another critical component heading into spring. In any event, it will take some time to absorb the excess inventory, so changes are unlikely to happen immediately. I will continue to track the data to uncover the early signs of new market trends. 

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This morning, the national average for a 30-year jumbo mortgage sits at 6.25%, the lowest since May 2023. The S&P 500 this morning is $6,588, a 98.49% increase over the past five years. While home prices in Central Oregon have been mostly flat since 2022, there are many reasons to be optimistic about our housing market, with population growth predicted to continue. Central Oregon doesn't have a corner on this growth, as smaller, recreationally focused areas throughout the country are experiencing similar growth patterns. I caution anyone, regardless of price point, against the hopes of "quick money" flipping real estate. Still, with a longer timeline, there is little doubt real estate will continue its upward trajectory. Conditions in Central Oregon this fall are the best buyers have seen in several years. While sellers need to be realistic and take the increased competition into account, the median sale price is rising, albeit slightly.  

Listings of single-family properties in Deschutes County between $1 million and $1,999,999 dropped by six to 369 this morning. The steady activity in the market has generally encouraged sellers to list well into the later part of peak selling season. Over the period from 2020 to 2024, inventory had already started the steady, sometimes rapid decline into winter. This year, activity remains steady, along with supply. Eighteen pending sales at an average of $1,333,611 this week, with seventeen closed transactions averaging $1,356,117, are consistent with our weekly activity over the past several weeks.

Between $2 million and $2,999,999, inventory decreased by five, now at 94 single-family listings. It was a strong week for pending sales, with three at an average of $2,441,170. One transaction closed in Broken Top at $2,275,000, a reduction from the asking price of 12.07%. The final price for this home is consistent with similar properties in the neighborhood. Again, prices since 2022 are mostly flat, and sellers testing the market at a 20% premium are finding out that buyers are not responding.

Homes listed over $3 million in Deschutes County are flat at forty-eight. One house on Fryrear Road is pending at a list price of $4,500,000. There were no closed transactions this week. The pending sale is a 94-acre parcel with an unfinished home. Considering the state of completion, the negotiated closing price will likely be below the asking price, which I will report when the transaction closes.

Crook County inventory over $1 million is up by one to 65 listings. Two pending sales, with one just west of town at $1,074,000, and the other at $1,299,999 in Post to the east of Prineville, were put under contract by buyers this week. There were three closed transactions this week, one in Brasada Ranch at $1,050,000, another at $1,810,000 at Mountain View Estate in Powell Butte, and the last at $1,950,000 in West Powell Butte Estates.

The total listings for farm properties in Deschutes County over $1 million decreased by one to sixteen, with no pending sales this week. One farm property transaction closed this week at $1,250,000 in Alfalfa for 83.33% of the original asking price. Crook County farm listings over $1 million are stable at fourteen with no pending or closed transactions.

I hear much speculation about the state of the housing market and the economy in general, much of it inaccurate. While the stock market isn't necessarily a direct reflection of the economy in general, the continued upward trajectory for equity markets is notable. Historically, home prices increase ~3.5%, a level that closely matches the performance of Central Oregon real estate today. Transaction volume is outpacing the past two years after a steep drop in 2023 from the highs seen in 2020 through 2022. As for 2026, predicting the market's direction will be challenging until we see where inventory bottoms out in late winter to early spring and how quickly new listings rebuild supply. However, with mortgage rates trending down, there is a strong chance that supply next year will be down from the highs witnessed in 2025. 

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With the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage this morning at 6.29%, activity in the housing market is brisk. Many in the industry, along with buyers, are anticipating the Federal Reserve making a move to lower the overnight rate in the Open Market Committee meeting next week. Whether the Fed comes through with a rate decrease remains to be seen, but markets have already priced the potential move in, which is reflected in today's mortgage rates. If the Fed doesn't come through with the expected decrease, I don't anticipate a big move up in rates, but that is a possibility. Conversely, a decrease will not likely bring rates down appreciably from today's level.

This morning in Deschutes County, there are 1,391 actively listed single-family homes, a decrease of 37 from last week. Activity has been brisk, and outpacing this time last year by nearly 20%. Eighty-eight pending sales represent an increase of eight from last week, primarily due to decreasing mortgage interest rates. The mortgage-rate/price dynamic is a balancing act that stabilizes relatively quickly. The excess inventory seen this year was a result of higher rates. As rates decrease, buyer demand increases, excess inventory declines, and prices rise. The average list price of the pending sales this week was $906,170, with sixty-nine closed transactions averaging $894,304.

Crook County inventory this week defied seasonal trends and increased by eight, now at 243 single-family listings. Ten pending sales at an average of $682,080 is on the high side for the past several weeks. Seven closed transactions averaged $1,069,142, with sales in Powell Butte and Brasada Ranch pulling up the average sale price. Seven of the ten pending sales were in Prineville, with the balance in Post, Oregon, Brasada Ranch, and Powell Butte.

The Jefferson County inventory is unchanged at 133 single-family listings. There were five pending sales at an average of $354,150, and no closed transactions this week. The data for the county shows that new listings are keeping inventory stable heading into fall. Like all of Central Oregon, Jefferson County offers many great opportunities in light of current market conditions.

Mortgage rate decreases will bring buyers out of the woodwork, but the overall market takes some time to adjust. With fall and the winter holiday season looming, I do not expect the dynamic of today's market to change much through year-end. The stable conditions today have improved conditions for buyers as the components of increased inventory, lower rates, and motivated sellers are all benefits. Sellers are maintaining prices established during the market peak of 2022, but might not be able to add significantly to those levels. Of course, every property is unique, and how a particular home competes with the active inventory, as well as its overall desirability, are significant factors that don't show in the market trends. Please don't hesitate to reach out if you need help evaluating a property in Central Oregon. 

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The data this week in the luxury market is somewhat subdued, likely attributable to the Labor Day holiday weekend and the Flat Creek Fire in Sisters. However, with one of the most extended unimpeded stretches of time of the year for real estate sales ahead of us, and mortgage rates softening, I do not anticipate the modest lull in activity to last long. Whether Jerome Powell drops the overnight rate in the next Fed meeting is largely irrelevant; rates today are the lowest in years (6.4% national average for a 30-year jumbo loan), and the trends in place today will remain before the market slows coming into the winter holiday season.

There are 375 single-family homes listed in Deschutes County between $1 million and $1,999,999, a decrease of nine since last week. Fourteen properties are pending, with the average pending sale price at $1,377,499. Sixteen transactions closed at an average of $1,281,965. This average sale price is the lowest average closed sale price of the year, reflecting the intense competition in this price point.

Listings in Deschutes County between $2 million and $2,999,999 actually increased by two this week to 99. One pending sale occurred in Caldera Springs near Sunriver Resort with a list price of $2,250,000. Three transactions closed, with one in Caldera Springs ($2,550,000), another in Broken Top ($2,490,000), and the last in Tetherow at $2,800,000.

There are 48 listings over $3 million in Deschutes County, down one from last week, with no pending or closed transaction activity.

Crook County listings over $1 million also decreased by one this week, now at 64 active listings. There was a single pending sale in Powell Butte for $1,195,000, and one closed transaction in Brasada Ranch at $1,798,000.

Farm properties aren't necessarily luxury real estate, although many of these locations are unique, legacy properties. Those of you reading my reports regularly know the activity in this segment is sparse, but keeping an eye on these properties is essential for tracking the high-end market in Central Oregon. Depending on your needs, searching farm listings could uncover the perfect fit that might be elusive in residential listings.

In Deschutes County, the active listings for farm properties over $1 million are stable at seventeen, with no pending sales or closed transactions. Crook County inventory increased by one to 14 active listings, with no pending or closed transactions.

In the Central Oregon luxury market, price is less of a concern than selection, and today we have more luxury properties listed than at any time in years. The competition is forcing sellers to be realistic with asking prices, and many are negotiating to make sales happen before the year's end. Fall is always a great time to engage our market, and this year is no exception.  

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Over the past several days, there has been considerable discussion about the president declaring a "housing emergency" and its potential implications. The debate centers around exempting building materials from tariffs, decreasing closing costs, and other ideas under discussion. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also mentioned these ideas in conjunction with the Federal Reserve making cuts to the overnight rate, "which will help bring housing prices down." Considering that lower rates increase prices, today's inventory is higher than in several years, and prices have softened, I disagree with Bessent's speculation on the result of Fed rate cuts. In fact, during the rate cuts of 2024, when the Fed lowered the overnight rate a total of 100 basis points, mortgage rates increased. And any tariff exclusion or closing cost decreases will be minor at best. Interestingly, Bessent hasn't reached out for my opinion on the matter.

Housing prices increased dramatically during the COVID years as the country experienced a once-in-a-lifetime demographic shift, along with the Treasury Department increasing monetary supply (M2) by an unprecedented 26.9%, coinciding with PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) rising to nearly double-digits. Since then, M2 has decreased, along with the rate of inflation, but we have not experienced deflation. In other words, the increase in prices are locked in. For many buyers, housing is unaffordable, and lower rates seem to be the logical answer. However, rates and prices are not directly correlated; lower rates attract more buyers, which in turn puts pressure on prices and decreases supply. The short answer is that timing the market doesn't work, and "waiting" has historically been a poor strategy. I won't speculate on what may happen in the future, but I can confirm that conditions today favor buyers more than at any time in several years. Milton Friedman is probably rolling over in his grave over some of the modern-day discussions about monetary policy!

Listings of single-family homes in Deschutes County decreased by 24 this week, now at 1,428. Pending sales remain steady with 80 homes placed under contract this week at an average list price of $877,728, and an average reduction before finding a buyer at -7.58%. Eighty transactions closed this week at an average sale price of $813,711, and an average decrease below the list price of -7.89%. Don't assume that the price reductions for pending and closed transactions are stacking to equal 15% reductions over the asking price in every case. Still, there is no question that some properties are selling at deep discounts from the original asking price.

Year-to-date sales in Deschutes County are at 2,304, an increase of 48 from 2024, with the median sale price at $698,384, an increase of $5,825 from 2024. The average sale price YTD is $881,472, an increase of $24,206 from 2024. The YTD numbers indicate that sale prices are flat, with the price decreases prevalent in today's market reflecting sellers returning to reality rather than collapsing prices.

Inventory in Crook County remains stable, with 235 single-family homes listed, a decrease of four from last week. There are six pending sales, averaging $450,483, with a modest price reduction of 4.35% for three of the sales before securing a buyer. There were also six closed transactions and three that negotiated a lower price by an average of -3.78%.

Jefferson County inventory shows 133 single-family homes listed, a decrease of ten from last week. Seven pending sales indicate a strong week for the county, with three that reduced the asking price by an average of -3.27%. Eight closed transactions averaged $483,168, with only one negotiating a lower price. The sold-to-original list price percentage for the closed transactions was 100.21%.

The next seasonal milestone for Central Oregon real estate will be Thanksgiving, clearing the runway for one of the busiest times of the year. With increased selection, decreased mortgage interest rates, and sellers willing to negotiate to secure a sale before the end of the year, conditions are moderately in favor of buyers. While the Fed might reduce the overnight rate in the mid-September meeting, the likelihood of mortgage rates changing significantly is low. The conditions and trends in place today will hold for the next several weeks, before the market adjusts to winter in Central Oregon. What do you think the trends will be for spring and summer 2026? 

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Thankfully, the Flat Creek fire, which has threatened Sisters for the last several days, is now more contained, with most homes out of extreme danger. Unfortunately, four structures were lost, but considering the devastating nature of desert fires, the firefighters did an admirable job protecting the community. While the fire activity undoubtedly slowed the Sisters' real estate market, most of the luxury market has been full steam ahead.

Deschutes County single-family homes listed between $1 million and $1,999,999 dropped by nineteen to 384 listings. The decline is attributable to fewer new listings and the biggest week of the year for pending sales, which totalled twenty-five. The average price reduction before securing a buyer for the 15 (of 25) pending sales was -10.52%. Fourteen closed transactions, averaging $1,358,071, show that buyers are focusing on the lower end of this price tranche. Ten of the closed transactions negotiated a lower price, with an average decrease of 11.48%. Not only does this data show robust activity, but it also reveals that sellers are negotiating!

Between $2 million and $2,999,999, listings in Deschutes County decreased by four, now at 97 single-family listings. There were five pending sales, tied for the most of the year, averaging $2,497,000, with three reducing the price before securing a buyer by an average of -8.59%. There were no closed transactions.

Inventory above $3 million in Deschutes County is flat at forty-nine. There were no pending sales, and one closed transaction at $3,285,000 in Broken Top. This property initially listed for a wildly unrealistic price of $4,195,000. The negotiated closing price indicates a 21.69% price drop. An analysis of Broken Top would reveal that the negotiated price is reasonable for the neighborhood and today's market, suggesting a "reaching for the stars" phenomenon rather than a market decline. However, the average sale price YTD over $3 million has declined from $4,036,665 to $3,762,403. I attribute much of the lower average sale price to increased inventory and competition, with YTD 2024 sales at 25, compared to 31 this year. Total sales exceeding $3 million are on pace to significantly surpass the 37 sales recorded in 2024.

The single-family inventory in Crook County, exceeding $1 million, decreased by four to sixty-five, with the average active listing at $2,005,415. There was one pending sale this week in Brasada Ranch for $1,850,000, and one closed transaction in West Powell Butte Estates for $1,399,000. Neither the pending nor the closed transactions show any price reductions.

Deschutes County Farm listings over $1 million decreased by one to seventeen, with no pending or closed activity this week. Crook County farm listings increased by one to thirteen, with no pending or closed activity.

The end of the third quarter and beginning of the fourth quarter are the busiest times of the year for the Central Oregon luxury market, and this week's pending sale data reflects that. The combination of increased selection, slightly reduced mortgage interest rates, and sellers' willingness to negotiate is keeping activity steady. 

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