My Weekly Central Oregon Real Estate Blog

At this time of year, the behavior in the market above $1 million and the broader market diverges, with inventory trends the most notable difference. This year, across all price points, inventory was high and remains elevated as we approach winter. However, even with elevated inventory, the broader market is beginning the seasonal decline of available listings in earnest in Deschutes County, while smaller Crook and Jefferson County levels remain stable. Activity in the luxury markets remains steady, with several properties listing and going under contract after single-digit days on the market.

Luxury is a loosely defined term that means different things to different people, but for my reporting, I define it as properties listed for over $1 million. In Deschutes County this morning, there are 326 single-family listings over $1 million, down by 16 from last week. This price tranche most closely matches the broader market and is the most active segment over one million dollars. Fourteen sales are pending this week, averaging $1,400,979, while 15 closed transactions average $1,407,866.

Between $2 million and $2,999,999, there are 88 single-family listings in Deschutes County, up by one from last week. There was one pending sale in Deschutes River Woods on the edge of Baker Lake for $2,495,000, with one closed transaction in Discovery West at $2,850,000, initially listed for $2,895,000. The Baker Lake pending sale was on the market for 8 days, and the Discovery West closed transaction was listed for 4 days. Single-digit marketing days at this time of year show that buyers are still stepping up for the right property, even as November looms.

Deschutes County listings over $3 million remain at 48 this week, with one pending sale in Rivers Edge Village above the Deschutes River in Bend at $3,185,000. There were no closed transactions this week.

In Crook County, listings over $1 million dropped by one to 62 this week. There were no pending or closed transactions.

Deschutes County farm listings over $1 million increased by two this week, now at 16 listings. There were no pending or closed transactions this week.

Crook County Farm listings over $1 million remain at ten, with no pending or closed transactions.

With cold nights and warm sunny days, this fall, the weather couldn't be better, and I suspect it is helping to extend the buying season. This morning, the national average for a 30-year Jumbo loan is 6.2%, another factor likely motivating buyers. Inventory levels and mortgage interest rates will be the best predictors of how next year's markets will behave as we head into spring 2026. With declining mortgage rates, it is unlikely the mix of elevated inventory and motivated sellers will continue, at least to the degree we are experiencing this fall. It is too early to predict mortgage interest rates for the coming year, but it seems increasingly likely that rates will be somewhere in the five-percent range. Whatever happens in the luxury market in Central Oregon, the trends will be revealed here in this report first! 

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Activity across Central Oregon remains steady, but differences between Deschutes County, the region's largest population center, and smaller Crook and Jefferson counties are beginning to emerge. Inventory remains elevated compared with recent years, but the seasonal slowdown into winter, combined with steady sales, has reduced the number of homes actively listed. However, with the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 6.31%, conditions have brought some much-needed relief for buyers.

Inventory of single-family homes in Deschutes County dropped 40 this week to 1,282, a level not seen since early May. Sixty-seven pending sales this week at an average of $905,972 is just shy of the pending sales average of the past two months of seventy. There were forty-eight closed transactions this week, averaging $889,926.

Crook County inventory dropped by six to 222 single-family listings, a volume last seen in late May. Seven pending sales are on par with the past several weeks, with an average list price of $476,114. There were seven closed transactions this week, averaging $758,214, with one in Powell Butte and another in Brasada Ranch. The Powell Butte properties, including Brasada Ranch, generally sell at prices well above the average Prineville sale price, and just two of seven Powell Butte sales this week raised the average sale price. The overwhelming majority of sales over $1 million in Crook County take place around Powell Butte.

The inventory in Jefferson County dropped by one this week to 128 single-family listings. On July 30 this year, the inventory was at 120, before spiking to 131 the following week. I assume that sellers recognized the steady activity and flooded the market later in the year, since an increase in inventory this late in the year is not typical. Four pending sales this week averaged $388,225, with two closed transactions at $265,000 in Madras and $465,000 in Metolius.

Conditions continue to favor buyers this fall in Central Oregon, but as winter looms, inventory decline will steepen. After some early snow in the mountains and brisk morning temperatures as of late, expect mild temperatures for the next several days. Cold temperatures and significant snowfall significantly slow the housing market. Keeping an eye on inventory will be one of the strongest early indications of what the 2026 housing market holds, along with mortgage interest rates over the winter and into spring. If the Fed narrative holds and rates drop another ~50 basis points between now and the end of the year, it is unlikely to affect the remainder of 2025 but will be a strong early indication of spring market conditions. 

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Lower, stable mortgage rates, increased inventory, and beautiful weather are helping keep the luxury market active, but the winter holidays are looming, along with inhospitable weather. More so than the broader market, the luxury markets tend to slow more during the winter months, and this week's data is showing early indicators of that seasonal trend. Still, there were some notable transactions, and the highly active $1 million to $2 million range remains consistent with past weeks. There is no question that market conditions favor buyers this fall, with many motivated sellers and great deals available.

The inventory of single-family homes in Deschutes County between $1 million and $2 million decreased by nine this week to 342 listings. Fourteen pending sales averaged $1,414,171, and seven of those properties reduced their asking prices by an average of 7.25%. Interestingly, the closed transactions were also fourteen, with seven price reductions. The average list price of closed transactions was $1,335,214, and the average decrease for the seven properties that dropped their list price was -10.09%. Eleven of the fourteen sales negotiated a further reduction from the reduced list price, ranging from -6.98% to 0.67% and averaging 3.64%. That equates to nearly a 14% reduction from the original list price!  

The supply of single-family homes priced between $2 million and $3 million increased by 1, to 87 listings. There were no pending or closed transactions this week.

Single-family homes listed over $3 million in Deschutes County decreased by one to 48. The decrease is due to a single pending transaction: a beautiful home in North Rim listed for $3,995,000 and on the market for 222 days. However, this home has been on and off the market since 2022. There were no closed transactions this week.

Crook County single-family listings over $1 million decreased by one this week to 63. One pending sale was recorded in Brasada Ranch at $1,799,000, initially listed for $2,195,000. There was one closed transaction on Powell Butte at $1,725,000. The transaction initially listed for $2,100,000, but the seller reduced the list price to $1,950,000. That is a total reduction from the original list price to the final negotiated price of 17.86%!

There are thirteen active listings of farm property in Deschutes County over $1 million, averaging $4,552,923. One pending transaction on Innes Market Road occurred for $1,750,000, initially listed for $2,300,000, and on the market for 532 days. There were no closed transactions.

Crook County farm listings over $1 million are down by one, with ten active listings in the MLS. There were no pending or closed transactions.

Activity this week outside the $1 million to $2 million tranche was slow. Still, it is too early to tell whether this is the beginning of the seasonal decline or just an anomaly. Either way, sellers at this time of year are motivated, and buyers are negotiating some great deals. No matter the market conditions, fall is an excellent time for buyers in Central Oregon, and this year's conditions are better than in recent years. 

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Stability in the housing market continues, with mortgage interest rates for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional loan remaining at 6.38%, and inventory levels higher than in several years. Our spectacular weather this fall is likely a contributing factor, yet another aspect helping buyers. At this time of year, homes listed for many weeks, or even months, tend to finally find a buyer, with fewer new listings entering the market. This year continues to outpace 2024 in all aspects: Deschutes County year-to-date sales in 2024 were 2,616, with an average sale price of $852,307, compared to 2,730 and $874,657 so far in 2025. And 2024 was up over 2023, showing steady but modest price appreciation since the peak in 2022. Whether the Fed lowers the overnight rate again this year remains to be seen, but another 25-basis-point decrease is unlikely to alter the trends of 2025.

There are nine fewer homes listed in Deschutes County this week, bringing the total to 1,322. Sixty homes are pending at an average list price of $896,213, a modest decrease from recent weeks' activity. Fifty-nine transactions closed this week, averaging $799,362, with 34 of those closings reducing the price an average of 7.64%. This week in 2024, there were 1,174 listings in Deschutes County, 11.19% fewer than this year.

Crook County listings of single-family homes decreased by four to 228. Nine pending sales averaging $850,553 are consistent with the past several weeks. Ten transactions closed, averaging $494,123, with six of the ten reducing the price an average of just 1.9%. This week in 2024, there were 180 listings in Crook County, 26.7% fewer than this year.

This morning in Jefferson County, there are 129 single-family listings, only two fewer than last week. Seven pending transactions averaging $460,664 occurred this week, with one closed transaction at $310k, 3.33% above the list price. This week in 2024, there were 118 listings in Jefferson County, 9.3% fewer than this year.

How low inventory levels drop this winter, along with mortgage interest rates, will be a significant factor in shaping the trends for spring 2026. The low point for Deschutes County inventory last season occurred on February 5, 2025, at 750 listings. Additionally, the lowest inventory levels were reported in Crook County on February 26, 2025, at 143 listings, and in Jefferson County on January 15, 2025, at 89 listings. Based on the trends this fall, inventory levels will remain elevated through winter, providing spring buyers with a greater selection. If mortgage rates this spring dip below 6%, I expect activity to be robust, with buyers quickly absorbing excess inventory. Several factors could shape the trends in our market for next year, but inventory levels and interest rates are the two primary contributing factors to how the market develops in 2026. 

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This fall is shaping up to be one of the most active periods of the year, particularly in the $1 million to $2 million segment. Judging by the downward trend in mortgage interest rates, along with increased inventory, I suspect that steady activity will continue into the fall, deeper than in years past. Average price reductions based on original list prices range from 9.3% to over 12% depending on location and price point.

The inventory of single-family homes in Deschutes County, priced between $1 million and $2 million, decreased by 13 listings to 351. Fifteen pending sales, averaging $1,484,033, occurred this week, with an average listing price decrease of 12.22%. Twenty-four transactions closed, the most since early June, with fifteen of those sales negotiating a lower price by an average of 10.39%.

Homes listed between $2 million and $3 million decreased by six to eighty-six listings. There were three pending sales, averaging $2,347,667, and two with a list price decrease of an average of 5%. Five closed transactions are the most of this year, with two showing price decreases averaging 10.67%.

Inventory over $3 million decreased by one to 49, with the average list price at $5,117,890. Three sales are pending, with only one reducing the asking price by 6.8%. The big news in this price tranche is the closed transaction on Tamoli Road at $9,750,000. This property was initially listed for $10,750,000 465 days ago, and boasts an incredible location on 40 acres. So far this year, there have been 34 sales over $3 million, just three shy of 2024's total. The Tamoli Road sale nearly doubled the next-highest-priced sale of this year, at $5,350,000, followed by the third-highest-priced sale at $5,200,000, with the fourth-highest-priced sale at $4,950,000.

Year-to-date in 2024, 27 sales over $3 million totaled $107,912,945, compared to 34 sales in 2025 totaling $131,131,902. The top four sales in 2024 were $9,500,000, two at $5,200,000, and the fourth at $4,975,000. The total dollar volume of the 34 sales in 2024 was $144,411,945.

Homes listed over $1 million in Crook County increased by one to sixty-four at an average of $2,091,446. There were no pending sales. Two transactions were closed: the first at $1,257,500 on Paulina Highway, East of Prineville, and the second at $1,390,000 in Brasada Ranch.

Deschutes County Farm listings decreased by two, now at fourteen. There was one pending sale at $1,699,999, and no closed transactions. Crook County farm listings also dropped by two, now at eleven, with no pending or closed transactions.

It's not surprising to see increased sales volume this fall, given the current market conditions. The strong activity between $1 million and $2 million is impressive, along with what is sure to be a record-setting year over $3 million. With several weeks left in the last busy period before the holidays begin, it will be interesting to see how this year shapes up. 

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Mortgage interest rates have remained remarkably stable since adjusting after the last Federal Reserve meeting, with the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage steady at 6.37% this morning. While this may be slightly higher than the pre-meeting lows, this rate is the lowest since January 2023, and buyers are responding. There is no doubt buyers have been waiting for conditions to improve, and increased inventory, lower rates, and motivated sellers as we head into winter have created opportunities.

This week in Deschutes County, we experienced the largest drop in available listings of the year, down 57 to 1,331. On this week last year, there were 1,192 listings of single-family homes, still considerably less than this year's inventory. Seventy-four pending sales this week are up eight from last week, averaging $937,930. Ninety closed transactions are the most since July, averaging $942,319. The data proves that buyers are more active this fall than in the past few years. Seven hundred ninety-six of the active listings in Deschutes County show price reductions.

Crook County Inventory increased by two this week, now at 232 single-family listings. Today's inventory is down from its peak of 256 in late July, but the selection remains high for this time of year. There were seven pending sales, averaging $471,557, and twelve closed transactions, averaging $633,616. With 144 of the active listings showing price reductions, this fall in Crook County is favoring buyers more than any of the past few years.

The Jefferson County inventory is down by five to 131 single-family listings. There were four pending sales averaging $387,450, and three closed transactions averaging $403,555. Two of the pending sales were new construction, showing no price change, with the average price drop of the remaining two pending sales at 19.97%! Of course, not every property is subject to a twenty percent price decrease, but these pending sales are indicative of the deals negotiated today. Seventy-three of the active listings show price reductions.

The activity in today's market, spurred on by lower interest rates, offers a glimpse of the significant pent-up buyer demand that exists. A revealing metric to watch in the coming months will be the extent to which inventory levels drop during the winter and how quickly they rebound in the spring. Considering the downward trend in mortgage interest rates, it seems unlikely that there will be this level of inventory at this time next year. 

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With the inventory of listed single-family homes remaining high this fall, combined with gorgeous weather, the peak selling season has been extended. While transaction volume has softened from mid-summer highs, activity remains steady. Mortgage rates are helping to keep buyers engaged, with the lowest rates in years, except for a brief dip lower before the last Federal Reserve meeting. New listings continue to hit the market, creating selection opportunities worth considering.

This morning in Deschutes County, the availability of homes listed between $1 million and $1,999,999 decreased by only three to 364 houses. After a brief lull in pending sales last week (13), seventeen homes are pending this week at an average of $2,380,588. The trend in this price tranche of sales taking place below the mid-point continues. I chalk this up to the competition of available properties, and many truly exceptional properties just over the $2 million range. Only six transactions closed this week, averaging $1,213,331, the lowest since June.  

Homes in Deschutes County listed between $2 million and $2,999,999 decreased by six, now totaling 92. Pending activity was steady this week at four, averaging $2,398,750. Three closed transactions occurred, one in Black Butte Ranch for $2,050,000, another on the Deschutes River in Three Rivers South for $2,100,000, and the last in Caldera Springs, also in Three Rivers South, for $2,425,000.

For the second consecutive week, the inventory of homes listed for over $3 million in Deschutes County increased by one to 50. There were no pending or closed transactions this week.

Crook County homes listed for over $ 1 million decreased by two, now at 63 listings. There were two pending sales this week, both in Brasada Ranch, listed at $1,45,000 and $1,745,000. One transaction closed, also in Brasada Ranch, at $1,850,000.

Deschutes County Farm listings remain at sixteen with no pending or closed transactions. Crook County farm listings decreased by one to thirteen, with no pending or closed transactions.

While it is correct that lower mortgage rates attract more buyers to the market, thereby lowering inventory and putting upward pressure on prices, this dynamic takes time to work through. With the winter holiday season approaching, along with colder, snowy weather, sellers motivated to close transactions in this calendar year need to be realistic with any offer on the table, especially in light of the increased competition due to more availability. Home prices may be relatively firm, but conditions for buyers are better than at any time over the past few years. If luxury property is on your radar in Central Oregon, now is the time to engage the market to see if something suits your needs.  

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The Federal Reserve delivered the highly anticipated rate decrease (25 basis points) that everyone had been waiting for, but mortgage interest rates initially rose. Mortgage rates align with the trends of the 10-year Treasury note, rather than the Fed's overnight rate, and bond investors have concerns about inflation and other economic aspects that have driven yields higher. However, a closer inspection reveals that mortgage rates are lower on average than they were in the last several weeks. Whenever consensus opinion expects rates to decrease, mortgage rates come down in anticipation of the event, and preceding the Fed meeting, rates adjusted to the lowest level in years at 6.13%. While today's rate is up at 6.37%, overall rates are still lower than the trend leading up to the Fed's rate cut. All in all, conditions this fall favor buyers, with increased selection and moderate interest rates.

There are seven fewer listings in Deschutes County this week than last, now at 1,388. Sixty-six pending sales, at an average of $1,089,557, represent an increase of six from last week and a slight decrease from the volume seen since mid-July. Sixty-five transactions closed at an average of $784,693. The average price reduction for pending sales before securing a buyer was -9.81%, and the average for closed transactions was -6.78%. The sold-to-list ratio for the closed transactions was 97.86%.

Crook County inventory is down twelve from last week, now at 230 single-family listings. Eleven pending sales, averaging $640,882, are consistent with the volume of the past several weeks. Six closed transactions occurred this week, averaging $727,233. The sold-to-list ratio of the closed transactions was 100.07%, with two of the six closed transactions showing price reductions averaging 3.14%.

The inventory of single-family homes in Jefferson County has decreased by one, now standing at 136 listings. Four pending sales occurred, averaging $449,675, with three price changes resulting in an average decrease of 9.52% before a buyer was secured. Two transactions closed at $500,000 (list price $540,000 = 7.4% decrease) and $624,000.

While transaction volume is steady considering the time of year, the decrease from summer highs is keeping inventory elevated. Sellers motivated to move their property this year will need to consider accepting a lower price, which will significantly benefit buyers. Nothing in our diverse market is equally applicable across all properties, but generally speaking, the fall is a great time to purchase. 

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The most notable aspect of the luxury market today is the stubbornly high inventory as we get deeper into the last part of the 2025 season. All in all, the increased selection is excellent news for buyers, and in many ways helps sellers to see exactly how their home (and price) competes in the market. However, the trends today are in direct contrast to the last several years, when the seasonal decline in supply was already happening rapidly. Activity this week slowed relative to the past several weeks, and I speculate that the Fed's rate cuts have contributed to the decrease in buyer demand. That may sound counterintuitive, but whenever rates change, many buyers wait to see if they will drop further. In this case, similar to the last time the Fed lowered rates, mortgage rates rose from recent lows. Whether this becomes the new normal remains to be seen, but bond investors are increasingly concerned with inflation and what is perceived to be "too loose" monetary policy. In any event, the luxury markets show continued stable prices and record-setting transaction volume.

Volume of single-family homes listed in Deschutes County between $1 million and $1,999,999 decreased by only two this week, now at 367 listings. Thirteen pending sales are down from recent weeks, with the average list price of these properties at $1,278,146, and the average price reduction before securing a buyer at 8.93%. Fourteen closed transactions are in line with recent weeks at an average of $1,254,214, and the average price reduction is 12.46%. Notably, the average activity in this price tranche skews towards the lower end of the range.

Supply between $2 million and $2,999,999 increased by four to 98 this week. Two sales are pending: the first at $2,375,000 in Sunrise Village above the Deschutes River, and the second at $2,895,000 in Discovery West. One transaction closed on Hunnel Road at $2,080,000 after 319 days, and originally listed for $2.5 million.

Listings over $3 million in Deschutes County increased by one to forty-nine. One property is pending on Tamoli Road near the Tumalo State Park. This property, listed for 465 days at $9,750,000, sits on 40 acres and, by all measures, is a stunning location and home. Legacy properties at the top of our market take time to attract the right buyer, but demand for these locations remains strong. One home closed this week for $3,085,000 on Celilo Lane in Discovery West. The closed sale was an immediate sale with no days on the market and at full price.

Supply over $1 million in Crook County remains stable at sixty-five. One transaction is pending on Wooden Trestle Lane in Brasada Ranch for $1,399,999 with no closed transactions.

Deschutes County farm listings over $1 million remain stable at sixteen with no pending or closed transactions. Crook County farm listings remain unchanged at fourteen, with no pending or closed transactions.

Despite a consensus from the public that mortgage interest rates are restrictive, in actuality, the opposite is true. If the Fed holds with the message of two more rate decreases by the end of the year, I expect the overall economy and housing to become frothy once again. It will take time for the overall impact to take effect, but mortgage rates in the low to mid 5% range will change the dynamic of the past couple of years dramatically. Take that information however you'd like, but if my predictions hold, many buyers who have waited for rates to decrease might look back longingly at the market we are experiencing today. 

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The consensus is that the Federal Reserve will decrease the overnight rate by 25 basis points today. While I remain skeptical that it will happen, and candidly do not believe it is the right move, my opinion is irrelevant. However, if rates decline, I do not expect mortgage rates to fall below this morning's national average 30-year fixed-rate conventional rate of 6.15%. The markets typically adjust in anticipation of rates coming down, and pre-price rates accordingly. By this time next week, we will know what today's Fed meeting brings to the market.

With mortgage rates decreasing, buyers have been active, and as a result, more sellers are coming to market at a time when inventory is typically in decline. Single-family homes for sale in Deschutes County increased this week by four, now at 1,395. This level is 143 more than this week last year. Four listings isn't an earth-shattering number, but it bucks the trends of the past several years. Sixty pending sales this week are down from recent levels, while 88 closed transactions are an increase, reflecting the strong activity of late summer.

Active listings in Crook County decreased by one to 242 single-family homes. Ten pending sales are strong and consistent with the past several weeks. Nine closed transactions are the most since early July.

The Jefferson County inventory also increased this week to 137 single-family homes on the market. Six pending sales are in line with recent activity, with four closed transactions.

Decreasing mortgage rates and steady activity in the Central Oregon housing market, are drawing out sellers. Listing price decreases are prevalent, but the median sale price is still up from last year. That in no way means there aren't great deals available, but this is a long way from a market collapse in our region. A big part of the equation is competition from increased supply. How long inventory levels stay elevated will be an essential metric to follow over the next few months. Whether mortgage interest rates continue to fall will be another critical component heading into spring. In any event, it will take some time to absorb the excess inventory, so changes are unlikely to happen immediately. I will continue to track the data to uncover the early signs of new market trends. 

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