My Weekly Central Oregon Real Estate Blog

This morning, the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate jumbo mortgage is flat at 6.35%. However, the 30-year fixed-rate conventional average is at 5.99%, the first time rates have dipped below the 6% threshold since February 2023. Our MLS does not categorize jumbo loans, with the majority of financed sales listed as conventional. Loan type aside, of the 70 sales recorded at $1 million or more in Deschutes County since December 1, 2025, 23 were cash transactions, 32.86%. This cash-to-financed transaction ratio is typical, as a majority of buyers in the luxury market consider the opportunity cost of paying cash, especially at a time when equity markets are returning exponentially more than the cost of a mortgage. No matter how a buyer chooses to pay for luxury property in Central Oregon, lower interest rates drive more activity, and 2026 is shaping up to continue the trend of steady activity in our corner of the world.

Single-family homes listed between $1 million and $1,999,999 in Deschutes County decreased by one this week to 189. With next week forecast to be sunny with highs in the low 50s, I expect real estate activity to remain steady. Nine pending sales this week averaged $1,569,106, with the average price reduction before securing a buyer at 7.32%. Two transactions closed at $1,325,000 in Awbrey Glen and $1,398,120 in Caldera Springs. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 93.79%.

Supply of Deschutes County homes listed between $2 million and $2,999,999 decreased by three to 51. Three pending sales averaged $2,661,333, with the average price reduction before securing a buyer at 3.39%. One transaction closed in Tumalo for $2,175,000, at 96.67% of the original list price.

The inventory of homes in Deschutes County over $3 million increased by one to 30. There were no pending sales, with one closed transaction in Broken Top at $3,100,000. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio of the Broken Top sale was 91.85%.

Crook County inventory over $1 million is flat from last week at 37 listings. There were no pending sales this week, with one closed transaction for $2,425,000 on Wooden Trestle Lane in Brasada Ranch. The Brasada Ranch sale closed at 89.81% of the original list price. Going back to January 1, 2025, this week's closing at Brasada Ranch is the second-most-expensive sale in the period. There were 30 sales total at Brasada Ranch in this period, with the most expensive at $2,447,700 and five sales over $2 million.

Deschutes County farm listings over $1 million increased by two to 12 this week. There were no pending or closed transactions.

Crook County farm listings over $1 million are flat at 11, and have been since late November. The median list price of $3,439,000 is also unchanged since late November, with no pending or closed transactions.

Market conditions are more favorable right now than in recent years. The combination of increased inventory, lower rates, and unseasonably mild weather is helping to keep buyers engaged and encouraging sellers to keep their properties listed. It is far too early to write off winter entirely, and more storms are sure to blanket the Cascade Mountains before long. Whatever Mother Nature decides, the other factors that have created our stable, steady housing market will continue.< 

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As expected, the supply of homes in Central Oregon took another significant dip this week. The national average for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage dipped slightly to 6.19%, a trend that will likely continue as rates stabilize and eventually settle in closer to the the 6% threshold. Exactly where rates end up depends on several factors yet to unfold, but I anticipate the very high 5% to the very low 6% range for the majority of the 2026 selling season.

This week, I will break down sales volume and price changes between 2024 and 2025, including a deeper analysis of different price tranches. The too-long, did-not-read version is that prices were basically flat in 2025 over 2024.

This morning in Deschutes County, actively listed single-family homes decreased by 74 to 796. A significant drop is typical at year-end, and it's nothing out of the ordinary. Forty-nine pending sales this week averaged $884,033, and 24 of those sales reduced the asking price by an average of 6.84% before securing a buyer. Twenty-nine transactions closed this week, averaging $919,332, with 18 reducing the asking price 7.91% before securing a buyer. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 92.84%.

Deschutes County sales in 2025 totaled 3,506, 161 more than last year. The average sale price was $872,095, an increase of 3.01% from 2024's average. Sales in the county under $1 million were 2,676, seventy-three more than in 2024. The average sale price in this tranche was $639,436, reflecting a 1.09% increase. Over $1 million, there were 851 sales, an increase of 100 over 2024, with the average price at $1,606,856, a 1.04% increase. Between $1 million and $2,999,999, there were 812 sales, an increase of 98 from 2024, with an average sale price of $1,501,240, an increase of 2.09%. Over $3 million, there were 39 sales, two more than in 2024, averaging $3,805,830, a decrease of 2.49% from 2024. The data show that competition increased and that price matters. In this environment, over-priced homes do not sell.

This morning in Crook County, there are 145 single-family listings, down by 14 from last week. two pending sales occirred at $330k and $429k, with no price changes. Five transactions closed this week, averaging $865,580, with a sold-to-original-list-price ratio of 92.65%.

There were 381 single-family homes sold in Crook County in 2025, down by one from 2024. The average sale price was $604,688, up 1.4%. Over $1 million, there were 44 sales in the county, up one from 2024. The average sale price in this tranche was $1,547,924, up 1.91%. There were 29 sales in Brasada Ranch in 2025, down four from 2024. The average sale price was $1,474,887, up 4.6%. Under $1 million, Crook County had 337 sales averaging $481,536, an increase of .15%. There is a bifurcation in the dynamics of homes in Crook County, splitting at the $1 million mark. Competition at lower price points makes accurate pricing of listings imperative, amid flat year-over-year growth.

In Jefferson County, there are 115 single-family listings this morning, down nine from last week. Three pending sales averaged $353k, with one reducing the price 12.48% before securing a buyer. Two transactions closed at $327k and $800k, with the sold-to-original-list-price ratio at 95.71%.

Jefferson County had 247 single-family sales in 2025, up 23 from 2024. The average sale price was $433,807, up 3.1%. There were two sales in the county over $1 million in 2025 ($1,024,000 and $1,200,000), the same as in 2024. The 2024 sales were at $1,000,000 and $1,100,000. While 2025 sales reflect an 8.76% increase, the data pool and diversity of these four properties render the increase meaningless. While Jefferson County doesn't have many properties selling over $1 million, the overall market was steady, and the sales price increases are in line with those of Crook and Deschutes Counties.

2026 has already ushered in lower mortgage interest rates, which should help bolster sales for the year. Short of bidding wars, which are essentially behind us in most of the market, price will be the most significant factor when listing properties. Without the market pressure that does not exist today, 2026 is shaping up to be incrementally better than 2025. I specialize in market analysis and estimating accurate sale prices, so please reach out if you have any questions about your home's position in the market today or a reasonable price for homes you are considering purchasing. I am always happy to share my knowledge of Central Oregon communities and current market dynamics. 

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Welcome to 2026! The next several weeks are typically the slowest of the year, but stable-to-slightly-decreasing mortgage rates are an encouraging start to the new year. Supply will continue to decrease before we turn the corner towards adding new listings this spring. However, there are still enough homes listed to provide many options for buyers, and I expect modest sales to continue, especially in the active $1 million to $3 million range.

Deschutes County listings between $1 million and $1,999,999 decreased by 16 this week, now at 190. Three sales are pending this week, with one changing the price by 4.07%. It is not unheard of for prices to go up, though it is rare. Two of the pending sales are in the growing community of Caldera Springs in Sunriver. Eight transactions closed this week, with three lowering prices by an average of 9.71%. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 92.04%.

Listings in Deschutes County between $2 million and $2,999,999 decreased by five to 54. There were no pending sales this week. Two transactions closed, with one showing zero days on the market and the other only 15. Rapid sales are not as common as a few years ago, but in the coveted higher price points, desirable properties still move fast. There were no price changes from the asking price for the closed transactions.

Deschutes County listings over $3 million decreased by four to 29 this week. The high for the year was on July 18 at 53, with the low for 2025 on March 28 at 29. The exclusive inventory over $3 million slows more than any other segment of our market during the winter, with most activity occurring from late spring through late fall. There were no pending or closed transactions this week.

Listings over $1 million in Crook County decreased by seven to 37 this week. There was a single pending transaction at $2,395,000 on Johnson Creek Road NE of Prineville. One transaction closed this week on Wildhorse Court in Brasada Ranch. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio for the closed transaction was 89.52%.

Deschutes County farm listings over $1 million decreased by one to 10, averaging $3,023,300. There were no pending or closed transactions.

Crook County farm listings over $1 million remain at 11, and average $5,310,455. There were no pending or closed transactions this week.

Whether you are a buyer or seller in the Central Oregon luxury market in 2026, getting familiar with the inventory today and tracking it as supply builds is essential to being prepared to make the most of your situation. With the national average for a 30-year jumbo loan flat for the last few weeks at 6.37%, market conditions are stable. While Gross Domestic Product data in 2025 was volatile, the second quarter showed GDP at 3%, while the third quarter showed GDP at 4.3%. Whether the fourth quarter of 2025 shows continued growth at the next release on January 22, 2026, remains to be seen, but by all accounts, the economy is healthy. All early indications point to a healthy housing market in 2026.< 

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Happy New Year!

As we count down the hours to 2026, the national average for mortgage interest rates today on 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgages sits at 6.2% comapred to 7.07% on the last day of 2024. Inventory levels in Central Oregon are up slightly to moderately, depending on the county. A significant indicator of where the housing market will trend next year will be how low inventory levels drop over the next several weeks before supply begins to build toward the summer peak. As mortgage rates decline, it becomes easier for those with attractive mortgage rates to consider selling, particularly as rates dip below 6%. I expect transaction volume to increase in 2026, with prices either maintained or rising from 2025 levels.

Supply of actively listed single-family homes in Deschutes County declined by 30 this week, to 870. The last week of 2024, there were 848 listings. Twenty-eight pending sales occurred this week, down significantly from the previous week due to the holiday season. The average pending sale price was $766,871, and 18 of those transactions reduced the list price by an average of 6.77%. Thirty-five transactions closed, averaging $881,005, with the sold-to-original-list price ratio at 96.24%. The transaction volume of sold single-family homes in Deschutes County in 2022 was 4,130; in 2023, 3,162; in 2024, 3,345; and so far in 2025, 3,494. The average sale volume between 2014 and 2019 (the last time frame not impacted significantly by extraordinary forces) was 4,523. While transaction volume is still below average, each year since the 2023 decline has improved, and the Deschutes County housing market is healthier and more stable than in the past several years.

Single-family homes listed in Crook County decreased by four this week to 159. This week last year, the level was 155. Five pending sales averaged $916,980, and three of those listings reduced the asking price by an average of 9.97%. Five transactions closed, averaging $494,700, with the sold-to-original-list price ratio at 89.95%.

In Jefferson County, supply decreased by three to 124 single-family listings. In the last week of 2024, there were 99 listings in the county. While a 25% increase in supply is significant, Jefferson County's supply during and directly after the pandemic market took the biggest hit of the three Central Oregon counties. The level of supply and activity in Jefferson County is healthy and stable. Three sales are pending this week, averaging $594,300, with one showing a 4.14% price reduction before securing a buyer. Two transactions closed at $325,000 and $800,000, with a sold-to-original-list price ratio of 93.12%.

Heading into 2026, sellers have stable market conditions, which makes pricing for a sale easier. With prices sure to increase somewhat, pushing the envelope early in the year may produce a positive outcome. However, I anticipate mid-single-digit appreciation, and encourage anyone hoping to secure a buyer sooner than later to exercise some pricing restraint. Byers in 2026 will benefit from lower rates and potentially have more tools available, such as a 50-year mortgage term. Without wading too deeply into the pros and cons of a 50-year mortgage, it can be an effective short-term tool for some buyers.

I wish you and your families a happy and prosperous 2026! If you need anything, do not hesitate to reach out.  

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With only four business days left in 2025, and most people taking time off with family and friends, it is no surprise that real estate activity has slowed dramatically. Here in Sunriver, snow is falling this morning, and while we might be experiencing a very mild winter to date, there is no doubt the recent winter-like weather has put a damper on the housing market. However, as the data below shows, inventory levels remain strong, and I anticipate the market will begin to pick up steam shortly after the start of 2026.

Deschutes County single-family homes listed between $1 million and $1,999,999 decreased by 2, to 206 listings. Only three homes are pending this week, averaging $1,183,333, with one of those listings in Black Butte Ranch reducing the list price 24.8% before securing a contract. Eleven transactions closed this week, a nod to the increased activity of the last several weeks, averaging $1,541,890, with five reducing their asking price an average of 10.72%. The sold-to-original list-price ratio was 91.88%.

Listings between $2 million and $2,999,999 in Deschutes County increased by 2, bringing the total to 59. One property in Pronghorn (Juniper Reserve) is pending after 510 cumulative days on the market at $2,219,000. Interestingly, the seller never lowered the asking price during the nearly 2 years on the market, showing impressive perseverance. One transaction closed this week, listed only 21 days, and selling for $2,143,633, 95.27% of the list price.

The inventory of single-family homes in Deschutes County listed over $3 million decreased by one to 33. There were no pending or closed transactions in this segment this week.

Crook County homes listed over $1 million remain at 44 for the third consecutive week, with no pending or closed transactions.

There are 11 farm listings over $1 million in both Deschutes and Crook Counties. Neither County had any pending or closed transactions this week.

With just hours remaining in 2025, I thank all of you for following my reports. I hope 2026 is happy and prosperous for you, and I am glad to help in any way I can. Happy New Year!< 

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"'Twas the night before Christmas, when all through the house

Not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse..."

I wish all of you a Merry Christmas and a joyous holiday season, however you choose to spend these days before the start of a New Year.

The Central Oregon housing market is chugging along this season, with buyers harboring visions of sugar-plums dancing in their heads. The national average this morning for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage is down to 6.21%, six basis points lower than recent levels, and nearly 100 basis points lower than at this time last year. Inventory levels throughout the region are very slightly higher than last year at this time, and notably, our weather is exceptionally mild. All of these factors are combining to create a perfect scenario to keep real estate activity brisk.

Single-family homes listed in Deschutes County decreased by 29 to 900. For reference, the low point of 2025 occurred in early February when the inventory hit 750. Unlike the frenetic period between early 2020 and late 2022, when levels bottomed out at less than half of today's levels. Fifty-two homes are pending this week, up eleven from last week. Sixty-one transactions closed, averaging $978,110, up two from last week, with the sold-to-original-list price ratio at 92.95%.

Crook County's inventory of single-family homes decreased by 3 to 163. On Christmas Day last year, there were 155 single-family homes listed. Three pending sales are four fewer than last week, with four closed transactions averaging $525,756 and a sold-to-original-list price ratio of 92.24%.

Jefferson County's inventory rose to 127 for the third time in the past five weeks, up two from last week. On Christmas Day last year, there were 99 single-family homes listed. One pending sale occurred this week: listing for twelve days at $365,000. Six transactions closed, averaging $443,900, with the sold-to-original list price ratio at 94.47%. The pace of new listings relative to sold properties in Jefferson County is keeping the inventory remarkably stable. It isn't often that real estate achieves a truly balanced market, but Jefferson County has done just that in the last half of this year.

Starting 2026 with mortgage interest rates stable and considerably lower than in 2025 creates stability in the Central Oregon housing market not seen since 2019. The crazy amount of relocation that occurred during the pandemic years, followed by an unprecedented rise in mortgage interest rates not seen in the last decade or more, seemed to keep the housing market out of balance. Healthier levels of supply combined with stable mortgage rates have calmed the markets, which, in the long run, is good news.

I am available for anything you need over the holidays, and I am grateful to all my past, present, and future clients! I strive to provide information to help you navigate the Central Oregon housing market, wherever you are in the process, and no matter which side of a transaction you are on. Merry Christmas! 

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Every year, the Central Oregon housing market experiences a reset at year's end, then builds back to a peak in late summer. Many listings expire on December 31 and will not relist until spring. This phenomenon, combined with changes in the economy and mortgage interest rates, creates a fresh scenario each spring that isn't always easy to see until it unfolds. However, there are signs as the new year begins that show the direction our housing market is moving. Of course, these signs will not reveal sudden shocks to the market, but barring anything out of the ordinary, it isn't terribly difficult to predict the market, at least the first several months of the new year.

Mortgage interest rates will be relatively stable in 2026, removing one variable from the equation. The following variable will be inventory levels, in particular, how low they go this winter and how quickly they build this spring. After that, buyer demand ties it all together. After a dip in transaction volume in 2023, sales volume over the past two years has increased, now at reasonably normal historical levels, and there is every reason to believe that sales will increase further in 2026. Tracking how much inventory declines after the end of the year is the last metric that will provide early insight into 2026, followed by where inventory levels go from there.

As expected, this week is slow in real estate, and listings in Deschutes County between $1 million and $1,999,999 are the same as last week at 208. Only six pending sales occurred this week, with two of those properties reducing their asking prices before securing a contract, an average of 10.74%. However, there were 16 closed transactions, averaging $1,370,949, with 11 of those properties reducing their asking price an average of 9.39% before securing a buyer. The sold-to-origional-list-price ratio was 86.99%.

Deschutes County listings between $2 million and $2,999,999 increased by one this week to 57. There were no pending or closed transactions.

Listings in Deschutes County over $3 million decreased by three to 34, with no pending or closed transactions.

Crook County listings over $1 million remain at 44, with one pending sale on Wooden Trestle Lane in Brasada Ranch. The Wooden Trestle property was listed for 230 days, with a 5.56% price reduction, before securing a buyer. There were no closed transactions this week.

Deschutes County Farm listings over $1 million decreased by 2 to 11, with no pending or closed transactions. Crook County farm listings over $1 million have a four-week streak with inventory stuck at 11, and the average list price is $3,439,000.There were no pending or closed transactions this week.

The stability of our market continues, with no apparent jolts to housing in Central Oregon. I will continue tracking all of this data and reporting my findings so you are abreast of any early developing trends. My following report on the broader market will be on Christmas Eve, with the Luxury Market Report the day after Christmas. I wish all of you a happy year-end with family and friends! Thank you for following my writing and continuing to allow me to serve you. None of my research matters without you!< 

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Stability in real estate is positive, if not uninteresting. But planning to buy or sell in a stable market makes it infinitely easier to plan and finance. Looking back to this week in December 2024 shows very similar data across all three counties of Central Oregon, with consistent activity heading into the last two weeks of the year. Mortgage interest rates have also been stable, with the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage at 6.27%, unchanged since early September and unfazed by the Federal Reserve's latest 25-basis-point rate decrease. The outlook for rate decreases in 2026 is uncertain, but data will largely drive it as the new year unfolds. Dropping below 6% is less likely, with 2026 shaping up to be very similar to 2025 in Central Oregon.

This morning in Deschutes County, active listings decreased by 39 to 929. This week in December 2024, there were 877 active listings, a 5.9% increase. Forty-one pending sales occurred at an average price of $736,090, with 24 reducing the asking price before securing a buyer, resulting in an average reduction of 7.62%. Fifty-nine transactions closed, averaging $770,558, with the sold-to-original-list-price ratio at 94.13%.

Crook County inventory decreased by six to 166 active listings, one fewer than this week in December 2024. Activity was robust, with 10 pending sales averaging $742,429, and 6 of those listings decreased the asking price by an average of 6.06% before securing a buyer, twice as many pending sales as this week in December 2024. Six transactions closed this week, averaging $835,558, with a sold-to-original-list-price ratio of 94.72%.

Jefferson County's inventory decreased by 2, now at 125 active single-family home listings. The inventory level today is 27 units higher than it was this week in December 2024, a 27.5% increase year-over-year. Three pending sales occurred, averaging $362,300, with one property reducing the asking price by 9.34% before securing a buyer. Three transactions closed this week, averaging $408,516, with the sold-to-original-list-price ratio at 94.96%.

The sold-to-original-list-price ratio shows that many sellers need to lower prices to attract buyers. With days on the market for active listings increasing and prices relatively flat since 2022, market conditions are not conducive to pushing the envelope on price. In the high-end market, two properties that sellers chose to sell at auction prove this point: both sold for less than half their original list price. Increased inventory creates more competition between sellers, and homes priced above the market are sitting. While the price increases that peaked in 2022 are essentially locked in, pricing well above those levels today is working against most sellers. With mortgage rates expected to remain flat for the foreseeable future, sellers should consider these factors for the coming year. 

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The Federal Reserve decreased the overnight rate by another 25 basis points this week, marking the third decrease this year. The 30-year jumbo national average this morning is 6.42%, up from the recent low of 6.1% on October 23, this year, but down .61% year-over-year. On October 20, 2023, the jumbo 30-year national average peaked at 8.05%, the highest point since 2000. It remains to be seen if further rate decreases are in store for 2026, but it is safe to say the recent cycle of higher rates is behind us.

Single-family homes listed between $1 million and $1,999,999 in Deschutes County decreased by fourteen to 208 this week. Eight pending sales occurred, with four listings decreasing the asking price by an average of 7.59% before securing a contract. Eleven transactions closed this week, averaging $1,455,400, with nine of those properties reducing the price before securing a buyer an average of 9.34%. The average sold-to-original-list price ratio this week was 89.19%.

Year-to-date 2024, there were 609 closed sales in Deschutes County between $1 million and $1,999,999, averaging $1,360,737. This year-to-date, there have been 670 sales averaging $1,367,139.

There are three fewer listings in Deschutes County this week between $2 million and $2,999,999, bringing the total to 56. One sale is pending, listed in Sunriver for $2,100,000 and marketed for 124 days. One closed transaction occurred in Bend at $2,595,000 on the Deschutes River on NW Harriman Street. The Harriman listing was on the market just 37 days, and sold for the full asking price.

Year-to-date 2024, there were 75 closed sales in Deschutes County between $2 million and $2,999,999, averaging $2,353,472. This year-to-date, there have been 99 sales averaging $2,406,780.

Deschutes County single-family homes listed over $3 million decreased by one to 37 listings. The decrease is due to one pending sale in Brokem Top, listed for $3,295,000. There were no closed transactions this week.

Year-to-date 2024, there were 36 closed sales over $3 million, averaging $3,911,442, compared to 38 this year, averaging $3,817,826. The diversity of homes listed over $3 million makes the average number less relevant than the steady sales volume.

The Crook County luxury home market, with listings over $1 million, decreased by one this week to 44. The decrease was due to a pending sale in Powell Butte, listed for $1,149.000, and originally listed at $1,299,000. There were two sales this week, the first in Powell Butte closed for $1,350,000, 96.5% of the original list price, and the second in West Powell Butte Estates closed at $1,575,000, 87.55% of the original list price.

Year-to-date in 2024 and 2025, there were 42 sales of $1 million or more in Crook County. The average sale price increased from $1,519,607 to $1,570,445.

Deschutes County farm listings over $1 million decreased by one to 13, with no pending or closed transactions. Crook County farm listings over $1 million are steady at eleven, with no pending or closed transactions.

In the run-up to the 2008 housing market crash, the first year with sales volume above 3,000 units was 2003, with 3,459 sales. In 2004, sales totaled 4,409, in 2005, 5,369, and in 2006, 4,002, before bottoming out at 2,043 in 2008. Sales across all price points of single-family homes next surpassed 3,000 units in 2010 (3,197), with steady increases until 2014 when sales surpassed 4,000 units. Sales ranged from the low to mid 4,000s until 2020, when sales hit 5,326. In 2021, sales were 5,256; in 2022, 4,130; and in 2023, when interest rates spiked, 3,162. In 2024, sales totalled 3,345, and year-to-date in 2025, 3,344.

In 2003, Deschutes County's population was 125,396, compared to 208,612 in 2024.

Analyzing the data shows that Central Oregon housing has remained remarkably stable through the period of higher mortgage interest rates. The increase in sales volume over the last three years is notable, while prices have remained stable. While we have not seen significant price increases since 2022, the increases during the pandemic were remarkable. The Central Oregon housing market remains steady and behaves more like a healthy market than many reports suggest. Next year will be another with modest sales volume and price increases, rather than significant movement on either front.  

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With only three weeks left in the year, and only fourteen business days on the calendar, the early indicators of what to expect for the housing market in 2026 are already emerging. A significant factor impacting housing in 2026 will be interest rates, and the Federal Reserve will announce today whether another 25-basis-point decrease is coming. The markets are anticipating a rate cut, even though Jerome Powell all but ruled it out in his narrative following the last meeting. While a cut today is anything but sure, mortgage interest rates have actually increased after each of the past cuts, and by the time it all washes out, I do not anticipate much movement. Rates have increased significantly lately, with the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage at 6.36%. Following this year's movement in mortgage rates, today's increase is likely indicative of the expected Fed cut. Go figure.

While rates in 2025 moved down considerably from the highs of 2024, there is little expectation that rates will continue to decline in 2026. Once everything settles out, I expect to see 30-year mortgages in the high 5% to low 6% range in 2026. A 6% interest rate may be higher than many hoped, but it is nearly 100 basis points below the average rate until the end of 2025. The improvement in interest rates will keep inventory capped, and likely lower than the highs reached this year.

Active listings in Deschutes County decreased by 28 to 968 this week. Pending sales improved by 12 to 49 after the first full week of business following the Thanksgiving break, averaging $784,235. There were 14 additional closed transactions this week, bringing the total to 59, with the sold-to-original-list price ratio at 92.76% and the average sale price at $851,615.

Year-to-date sales in Deschutes County in 2024 were 3,191, averaging $849,424. The total sales for the year were 3,345. Year-to-date sales in 2025 are 3,321, averaging $873,296. This year represents a 4.07% increase in volume and a 2.81% increase in price, which exactly matches the claimed rate of inflation.

Crook County inventory decreased by two this week to 172, one more than this week last year. There were five pending sales averaging $513,600, and five closed transactions averaging $513,600. The closed transactions sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 96.67%, with an average sale price of $531,800.

Year-to-date sales in Crook County in 2024 were 369, averaging $599,311. The total sales for the year were 382. Year-to-date sales in 2025 are 364, averaging $602,463. This year represents a 2.81% decrease in volume and a .52% increase in price.

The outlier this week is Jefferson County, which saw active listings increase by 5 to 127—two pending sales match last week's, at $599k and $600k. There were six closed transactions, with an average sold-to-original-list price ratio of 97.68% and an average closing price of $366,449.

Year-to-date sales in Jefferson County in 2024 were 281, averaging $429,617. The total sales for the year were 292. Year-to-date sales in 2025 are 311, averaging $426,532. This year represents a 10.67% increase in volume and a 7.2% decrease in price.

This year, more inventory, competition, and lower mortgage interest rates late in 2025 brought buyers out of the woodwork. This trend should continue into 2026, with the wildcard being how many buyers step up and whether inventory drops enough to put upward pressure on prices. At this point, I anticipate 2026 will be slightly better than 2025 in terms of sales volume, with extremely modest price increases. Some potential sellers have been hoping for another price spike, but the chances of that happening in 2026 seem like a long shot.

TL;DR: The Central Oregon housing market is healthy and stable, with only minor increases expected for 2026. 

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