My Weekly Central Oregon Real Estate Blog

With Thanksgiving less than a week away, and the weather pleasantly mild, sales activity in the Central Oregon luxury market remains steady. However, many of the sales are occurring in properties that have experienced significant price reductions from their original list price. In this week's data, I will show the average sale price change over YTD 2024 to highlight exactly where prices are today. Price decreases all on their own do not mean the market is retreating.

Pending sales in Deschutes County between $1 million and $1,999,999 remain steady at fourteen this week. Half of those properties reduced their list prices by an average of 11.77% before securing a buyer. Inventory decreased by twelve to 251 active single-family listings. Twelve transactions closed this week, with nine of those sales decreasing the list price before securing a buyer by an average of 10.09%. The sold-to-original list price ratio this week was 88.43%, or an average reduction negotiated by buyers of 11.57%. Year-to-date 2024, 584 sales averaged $1,359,046 compared to 639 sales averaging $1,364,984. In a narrow price tranche, the average sale carries less weight, but a 9.4% increase in sales volume is significant.

There is one fewer active listing in Deschutes County properties listed between $2 million and $2,999,999, now at 65. One pending sale occurred, listed at $2,650,000, with an 11.22% price decrease before securing a buyer. Two closed transactions took place at $2,400,000 and $2,850,000, both in Caldera Springs. The first sale closed at 90.6% of the original list price, with the second at 95.16%. Year-to-date 2024, there were 72 sales in this price tranche, averaging $2,360,568, compared to 93 sales averaging $2,402,229, an increase in sales volume of 29.16%.

Deschutes County active listings over $3 million decreased by one to 41, averaging $5,213,651. There were no pending sales this week. Two transactions closed this week, the first in the Highlands at Broken Top for $3,200,000 at 80.1% of the original list price. There are only a handful of homes in this neighborhood that sell in this price range, and the original list price was aggressively optimistic. The second sale (speaking of aggressively optimistic) closed at $3,385,500, initially listed for $6,300,000, or 53.74% of the original list price. The second sale went to auction, a tactic I have seen with overpriced properties, which resulted in a sale where the property should have been at the start. Year-to-date 2024, there were 35 sales over $3 million, averaging $3,918,655, compared to 36 this year, averaging $3,807,705.

Crook County inventory over $1 million decreased by two, now at 50 active listings. There were no pending or closed transactions this week. Year-to-date 2024, 41 sales averaged $1,532,342 compared to 39 this year, averaging $1,569,966.

Deschutes County farm listings decreased by one to 15, with no pending or closed transactions this week. Year-to-date 2024, two sales averaged $1,525,000, compared to four averaging $1,812,500 so far this year.

Crook County farm listings increased one this week to 10, with a new 18,754-acre property listed for $20,000,000 east of Prineville on the Paulina Highway. There were no pending or closed transactions this week. Year-to-date 2024, five closed transactions averaged $2,730,000 compared with two sales this year averaging $1,296,250.

Overall, sales volume is up considerably this year, or at least on pace with 2024. Prices are mostly flat, maintaining the highs set when our market peaked in late 2022. For some sellers, it might make sense to begin marketing property sooner rather than later, but by all measures, the most significant opportunities right now are for buyers. 

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Stable mortgage rates and unseasonably mild weather throughout Central Oregon have helped extend real estate activity deep into the year. With Thanksgiving just one week away, which typically would coincide with the opening day of the ski season at Mt. Bachelor, the resort is showing bare ground and temperatures above freezing. Winter in the Cascade Mountains has a way of making up for lost time, and snowy weather will eventually kick in. However, the forecast for the next ten days shows sunny skies with temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s, extending the most pleasant fall weather in the past several years.

Deschutes County had another productive week with 74 pending sales averaging $919,407 and an average price drop before securing a buyer of 7.56%. Active listings decreased by 43 to 1,073, with the average price reduction at 6.48%. Sixty-seven transactions closed, the most since early October. The sold-to-original list price ratio was 93.13%, consistent with the past several weeks. Typically, the market slows during the holidays, but this year's weather might keep activity elevated.

Crook County activity also remains steady, with eight pending sales this week, averaging $620,006 and an average price reduction before securing a buyer at 6.98%. Inventory decreased by seven to 189 active listings, with the average price reduction at 6.23%. Six closed transactions are consistent with the past several weeks, with the average price reduction before securing a contract at 10.6%, and the average sold-to-original list price ratio at 93.36%. The price reductions this week for the closed transactions were modest, but one property east of town on Mill Creek Road skewed the data, selling for 31.375% below the original list price.

Jefferson County also had a big week of activity, with seven pending sales averaging $452,107 and an average price reduction before securing a buyer of 7.05%. The active listings decreased by four to 124, with the average list price at $575,796 and the average price reduction at 6.06%. Seven transactions closed this week, the most since early September, averaging $421,900, with an average price reduction of 14.42% and a sold-to-original price ratio of 87.06%. It was an exceptional week for buyers in Jefferson County, with one notable sale at $860k, initially listed for $1,198,000 - a reduction of 28.2%.

I can't stress enough how favorable the market has been for buyers this fall, despite slightly elevated mortgage rates. With double-digit percentage decreases common for closed transactions this year, the lower prices have more than compensated for the current national average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage interest rate of 6.38%. Locking in a great price today and refinancing to a low rate later creates a "best of both worlds" scenario that isn't always easy to pull off.

Whether you are active in the markets today or looking towards the future, I hope you and your families have time this Thanksgiving to appreciate the important things in your lives. Real estate will be waiting whenever you are ready! 

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The luxury market in Central Oregon experienced a modest decline in inventory, while seasonally strong activity continued. Mortgage interest rates remain stable, with no anticipated changes in the near future. The weather forecast shows mild, dry conditions for the next several days, which will help extend the recent activity deeper into the year. Steady, stable conditions, with a generous number of healthy price negotiations, summarize the activity this fall.

The most activity occurs in the tranche between $1 million and $1,999,999, with steady activity again this week. Single-family home inventory dropped by 18 to 263 listings, with a median days listed of 106 and an average decrease of -7.6% for the 150 homes that have come off the original list price. Fifteen pending sales occurred, with 10 of those reducing the price by an average of 9.91% before securing a contract. Thirteen sales closed this week, averaging $1,322,346, with eight reducing the list price by 7.24% before securing a buyer. The sold-to-list ratio was 96.94%. The sold-to-list ratio shows the price at which the property closed relative to the list price. In contrast, the median price reduction shows the percentage by which a seller reduced the price before securing a contract.

The inventory of Deschutes County single-family homes between $2 million and $2,999,999 decreased by 2, to 66. Two pending sales occurred this week, both in Juniper Preserve (Pronghorn), for $2,197,000 and $2,650,000. The first of the pending sales reduced the list price by 25.5% before securing a contract, and the second by 11.07%. If world-class golf is on your radar, Pronghorn is worth a look. One transaction closed this week in Discovery West in Bend at $2,270,000 after 264 days on the market with a sold-to-original list price ratio of 95.38%.

Deschutes County residential listings over $3 million decreased by two this week, to 42. Three pending sales occurred, averaging $3,623,333 before securing a buyer. Two of those listings reduced their asking prices by an average of 10.15%. This price tranche had the first closing since October 3, a home in North Rim that closed at $3,360,000, initially listed for $3,995,000. The sold-to-original list price of the closed transaction was 84.11%. This week's sale is only the fourth over $3 million since late August. However, year-to-date sales are identical to 2024 at 34, with the average sale price at $3,837,997, down $80,619 from 2024.

The inventory of homes listed over $1 million in Crook County decreased by five this week to 52. Thirty-one of those listings have reduced their prices by an average of 5.05%. Three sales are pending, averaging $1,601,333, and one decreased the asking price by 3.26%. There were no closed transactions this week.

Deschutes County farm listings are stable at 16 with no pending or closed transactions. Crook County farm listings decreased by one, now at nine, with one pending sale at $2,225,000 and no closed transactions. However, the pending sale is also listed as residential and shows in the Crook County numbers above for properties over $1 million.

In 2023, sales volume decreased dramatically from the outsized levels that started in 2020. 2024 increased from 2023, and the YTD activity this year is up from 2024. Year-to-date sales over $1 million in Deschutes County in 2024 were 719, averaging $1,580,763, compared to 790 sales this year, averaging $1,586,229. The sales volume is the more critical metric here, as the diversity of homes over $1 million makes any price comparisons challenging. However, prices in the luxury market have not increased appreciably since 2024. 

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Mortgage interest rates reached the low point of this cycle just before the last Federal Reserve meeting, and spiked nearly as much as the Fed rate decrease immediately after, where they have stayed since. With another rate decrease this year seemingly off the table, rates should remain stable for the next few months. However, the slight increase in rates (the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, conventional mortgage this morning is 6.34%) hasn't slowed buyers, with solid pending sale numbers this week. Weather plays a factor in activity at this time of year, and the storms so far this season have been mild, followed by stretches of dry days with mild temperatures. Whatever the reason, activity this fall is steady, and with so many great opportunities available, I anticipate the trend continuing.

Single-family homes listed for sale in Deschutes County dropped 41 this week to 1,116. Pending sales were up considerably from last week at 72, with the average list price for these transactions at $921,576. Sixty-one closed transactions are above recent averages, with the average sale price at $926,774. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 93.98%, with 39 of the 61 closed transactions negotiating a lower price.

Crook County active listings dropped eight from last week to 196, the first time inventory has been below 200 since April. Eight pending sales at an average of $1,095,988 occured, with the average sales price helped by three transactions in Powell Butte over $1 million. Two transactions closed this week in Prineville: one at $475,000 (initially listed for $472k) and one at the full listing price of $559,900.

Jefferson County inventory remains stable at 128, down only one from last week. Three pending sales occurred at $289,900, $290,000, and $330,000, with two reducing the list price before securing a buyer by -2.94% and -17.14%. Two transactions closed this week at $304,000 (initially listed for $319,000) and $405,000 initially listed for $469,900. The closed sales represent reductions from the original list price of 3.13% and 14.9% respectively.

The average and median price reductions throughout Central Oregon are compelling, but many properties are taking even deeper double-digit price reductions this fall. With moderate mortgage interest rates, the result is deals that rival or beat many of the monthly payments when rates were half what they are today. This fall is proving to be the best buyer's market in several years and is certainly worth a look for anyone who has been waiting for better conditions. 

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The market above $1 million is showing continued activity this fall, with supply remaining relatively robust. While selection might not be as deep as during peak season, there are still many excellent properties available. Stability in our market is apparent, but the prevalence of deeper discounts is increasing, as shrewd buyers are making low offers on properties that are, in some cases, now in a second fall season since listing. Fewer new properties are hitting the market, but several stand-out new listings are finding buyers in short order. Sellers at this time of year need to balance price with desirability, but relatively favorable interest rates are keeping a steady supply of buyers ready to act.

This morning, the listings in Deschutes County between $1 million and $1,999,999 decreased by 20 from last week, to 281. Thirteen pending sales are one more than last week, with nine of those transactions decreasing the list price an average of 10.58% before securing a buyer. Seventeen transactions closed, with ten of those sales reducing the list price an average of 8.2%. The average sold-to-list ratio of 97.61% shows buyers are negotiating below the list price, with the average sold-to-original list price at 93.03%. The data shows the market slightly favors buyers, and that trend will continue for the next several months.

Deschutes County listings between $2 million and $2,999,999 dropped by a larger margin than the past several weeks, now at 68, a decrease of twelve since last week. Activity this week was steady, with four pending sales, and only one of those decreased the list price by a modest 6.67%. One sale occurred in Broken Top, listed at $3 million and closed at $2,925,000.

The market above $3 million has slowed considerably over the past few weeks, as is typical for this time of year. There are forty-four single-family listings in the price tranche, down by one from last week. There were no pending or closed transactions. After pacing ahead of 2024 for most of the year, the market above $3 million has lost a step compared to last year. Year-to-date 2024, 34 sales averaged $3,918,616 compared to 33 this year, averaging $3,852,481. Much of this comes down to the diverse mix of luxury properties sold in any given year, and the differences are minimal. With several weeks left in the year, one or two sales could easily swing the difference, but the takeaway here is stability in the luxury market.

Listings above $1 million in Crook County decreased by 3 to 57, with 31 of those reducing their asking prices by an average of 4.81%. One sale is pending this week, a modest home on 27 acres east of downtown Prineville at $1,125,000. There were no closed transactions this week.

Deschutes County farm listings increased by one to sixteen, with no pending sales. One sale occurred at $1,350,000 after listing a total of 1,156 days on the market. This property was initially listed for $2,300,000, and dropped to $1,750,000 before accepting the offer at $1,350,000, 58.7% of the initial list price. The property included a commercial-grade greenhouse and a modest residential structure, partially renovated with some unfinished work. Obviously, the initial list price was unrealistic, but the location boasts Cascade Mountain views in Tumalo, on Innes Market Road.  

Crook County farm listings over $1 million are flat at ten with no pending sales. One sale occurred on 91 acres north of town on Grimes Road for $1,335,000. The property was listed just 21 days before securing a contract.

Late in the year, it is common to see buyers making low offers on properties that have been on the market for an extended period. In many cases, these listings have issues that make them challenging, but at the right price, every property has value. Even exceptional properties are subject to a price below asking as the year winds down. However, even quick sales at full price have less pressure since fewer buyers are engaging the market. Whether you are considering a purchase today or thinking about listing, the fall can be a great time to start learning the market. 

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Shorter days and changing weather are settling into Central Oregon, and the housing market is in the midst of the seasonal slowdown in transaction volume. But for the buyers active today, the deals negotiated have been well worth the effort. In any year, a significant number of sellers on the market late in the year are highly motivated to close by year's end, and this year is no different. While mortgage rates may be slightly higher than recent lows, they remain attractive, especially when combined with double-digit price reductions. Granted, the properties taking the deepest cuts were overpriced to begin with, but deals are still happening, and sales volume is up year over year.

Inventory in Deschutes County sits at 1,157 single-family homes, down 84 from last week, and up 90 from this week last year. Fifty-three pending sales averaged $853,089, with 33 of those reducing the price by an average of 6.29% before finding a buyer. Sixty-five sales closed, averaging $884,329, with 44 of those transactions reducing the price an average of 8.24% before securing a contract. The sold-to-list ratio was 97.4%, with the sold-to-original list ratio at 91.87%. Not every home adjusted its price, but several cut prices even deeper than the average, offering some great deals for buyers.

Crook County inventory decreased eight to 204 single-family listings. Four pending sales averaged $493,475, with one reducing the asking price by 15.33%. Eight transactions closed this week, averaging $609,875, with the sold-to-list ratio at 99.44% and the sold-to-original-list ratio at 93.85%.

Jefferson County inventory remains stable at 129, down six from last week. Four pending sales averaged $401,475, and all four listings reduced prices by an average of 8.95%. Two transactions closed this week, at $425,000 and $444,900. The closed sale at $425k initially listed at $639,000, a 33.5% reduction after 712 days on the market. The other closed transaction closed at 7.1% below the list price after 493 days on the market, notable for a home built in 2024. Higher mortgage rates and increased inventory have significantly altered the dynamics for many properties in Jefferson County.

For buyers ready to purchase this fall, who can find a suitable property, the conditions are better than they have been in several years. Much of this comes down to sellers being realistic about today's market. Overall, sales volume is up slightly from last year, along with prices, but in much smaller increments than the run-up to the peak market in 2022. Increased competition creates opportunity, but stability is the best word to describe the Central Oregon Housing market today. With another Federal Reserve rate decrease all but off the table until late January, there shouldn't be any surprises for the next few months as we transition to a new year and a fresh selling season. 

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After the Fed lowered rates by 25 basis points this week, mortgage rates jumped almost the same amount, continuing the trend of the lowest rates of the cycle directly preceding the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting. To borrow a phrase from Alan Greenspan, I'd call the hopes of lower rates irrational exuberance. While most people understand that the Fed's overnight rate does not directly tie to mortgage interest rates, which more closely follow the 10-year Treasury Bond, there appears to be some misplaced anticipation that a decrease in the overnight rate will reduce mortgage rates. Without getting into the temperament of bond investors, demand for higher yields has derailed the highly anticipated decline in mortgage interest rates. Everything should settle out over the coming weeks, especially in light of Jerome Powell's comments after the meeting that another rate decrease in December is all but off the table. While lower Fed overnight rates may eventually trickle down to mortgage interest rates, there are no straight lines in economics.

Deschutes County single-family listings between $1 million and $1,999,999 decreased by 18 this week to 301. Twelve pending sales are up by two from last week, averaging $1,301,900, and 7 of those had list prices reduced by an average of 3.28% before securing a buyer. Eighteen closed transactions nearly double last week's ten, averaging $1,392,942, with an average price decrease before securing a contract of 9.72%. The sold-to-original list price ratio this week was 91.79%.

Listings between $2 million and $2,999,999 in Deschutes County decreased by 2, to 80. One pending sale at $2,250,000 occurred on Swalley Road in Tumalo. Two closed transactions occurred, one on Cloverdale Road in Sisters for $2,150,000, initially listed for $2,350,000, and the other on Columbia Street in Bend for $2,700,000, initially listed for $3,295,000. Both closed transactions show how much sellers are willing to negotiate to make sales happen this fall.

The inventory in Deschutes County over $3 million this week is flat at 45, with no pending or closed transactions.

Listings over $1 million in Crook County decreased by one this week to 60. There were no pending sales, with one closed transaction at $1,700,000 on Prospect Court in Brasada Ranch. The closed transaction initially listed for $1,895,000.

Deschutes County farm listings over $1 million decreased by one to 15, with no pending or closed transactions. Crook County farm listings over $1 million are flat at 10, with no pending or closed transactions.

With Jerome Powell stating that another rate decrease from the Fed this year is highly unlikely, we should return to a period of stability with the next Fed meeting not taking place until late January 2026. The national average for a 30-year fixed-rate Jumbo mortgage is 6.3%, up from recent lows. I anticipate Jumbo rates decreasing slightly as markets digest the Fed's latest move and bond investors adjust to current economic conditions. It is still likely that mortgage interest rates will be in the high 5% range by spring of 2026, but rates in the low 5% range seem unlikely. One positive of slightly higher interest rates is increased inventory, which creates competition between sellers. As we have witnessed this fall, buyers are negotiating prices double-digit percentage points below initial list prices, which in many cases is a bigger financial benefit than a slightly lower interest rate. 

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Today, all expectations point towards the Federal Reserve lowering the overnight rate, most likely by 25 basis points. This morning, the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage is 6.13%, the lowest since rates hit 6.11% in early September last year. Jerome Powell and the Fed governors have consistently said they plan another cut at the last meeting of the year in December. While I do not expect rates to dip much after today's Fed announcement, by year-end, there is every likelihood that the average conventional mortgage rate will be below 6%.

If prices remain stable, there is no argument that lower rates will help buyers and, in turn, sellers. However, in healthy markets, lower rates increase competition, reduce inventory, and put downward pressure on prices. The keyword here is "healthy." Lately, I have read a lot about the housing affordability index and the broader concerns about the economy. Whether the market is shifting remains to be seen. If inventory levels of homes in Central Oregon remain elevated through winter and build rapidly in the spring, despite lower mortgage interest rates, it could be an indicator of the overall economy changing.

This morning, in Deschutes County, the inventory of single-family homes decreased by 14 to 1,241. Pending sales remain stable, albeit less than in the past several weeks, at 59. The average pending sale price was $871,529, and 35 of those listings reduced the price before securing a buyer. Fifty-three transactions closed this week at an average of $852,513, with 28 of those listings reducing the list price by 6.55% before securing a buyer. Thirty of the closed transactions negotiated a price below the list price, with the standout price drop initially listed at $3,295,000 and closing at $2,700,000, a 18% decrease. The sold-to-original list price ratio this week was 93.5%.

Inventory in Crook County this week decreased by five to 212 active single-family listings. Pending sales are on pace with the past several weeks, with eight, averaging $419,075. Seven transactions closed, averaging $638,571, with the average price reduction before securing a buyer at $5.5%. The sold-to-original list price ratio was 95.3%.

For the second consecutive week, Jefferson County inventory increased, this week by five to 135 active listings. For reference, the inventory high this year occurred on August 20 at 144. Pending sales remain stable with five this week, averaging $354,180. There were six closed transactions this week, averaging $344,533, with the average price reduction at 7.78%. The sold-to-original list price ratio this week was 93.1%.

Increased inventory across Central Oregon this fall could be an early indication of a market shift. While mortgage interest rates have decreased, the reduction occurred too late in the selling season to have a substantial impact this year. Inventory trends over the next few months will paint a picture of what to expect from the spring market. If inventory increases and sales are sluggish this spring, it will create competition among sellers and put downward pressure on prices. Conversely, if lower interest rates motivate buyers, and inventory levels remain low, prices will firm up. Whatever the 2026 market holds, there is no question that conditions today favor buyers more than at any time in the past several years. 

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Late fall is arguably the best time of the year for buyers, as many sellers are motivated to close before year-end. This year, mortgage rates are declining, with the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate Jumbo loan at 6.14%, and inventory levels are elevated compared to recent years. However, looming winter weather and holiday schedules lead to a seasonal decline in activity, inevitably slowing the market. This week shows a divergence in activity between the different price tranches, expected for the season.

This morning in Deschutes County, the inventory of homes for sale between $1 million and $1,999,999 decreased slightly to 319, down seven from last week. Supply remains elevated, but pending sales dropped significantly to ten from fourteen the previous week. Seven of the ten pending sales reduced the list price before securing a contract. There were ten closed transactions, down from 15 last week, with 6 of those sales reducing the list price before securing a contract.

Of the ten sales, two closed at full price, two were over the list price (+1.7% and +9%), and six closed below the asking price by an average of 5.08%. The average list price decreased by 7.4%. I recognize these numbers can get confusing, but here is an example of a home that sold on Titleist Lane, Sunriver: Original List Price $2,195,000, New List Price $1,975,000, Closed Price $1,800,000, representing a total decrease from the original list price of 17.99%. This example home, built in 1997, last sold in 2020 for $700k, with gross returns to the seller of 157.1%!

The inventory of homes listed in Deschutes County between $2 million and $2,999,999 decreased by 6 to 82 listings. Activity is up considerably, with four pending sales (one last week) and five closed transactions (also one last week). Two of the four pending sales reduced their list prices by an average of 8.29% before securing a buyer. Of the five closed transactions, three sold at the full asking price. Two of the closed transactions sold below asking, with one listed at $2,928,610 and selling at $2,750,000 (-6.1%), and the other listed at $2,900,000 and selling at $2,500,000 (-13.8%).

Deschutes County homes listed for over $3 million decreased by three to 45. Two pending sales listed at $3,999,000 and $5,700,000 occurred with no closed transactions. The pending sale at $5.7M, initially listed 450 days ago at $6.3M, went to an auction format to secure a buyer. In my analysis, the home was considerably overpriced, and it will be interesting to see what the final auction price was once the transaction closes.

Crook County inventory over $1 million decreased by one, now at 61 listings. There were no pending sales this week, with two closed transactions: $1,074,000 in Prineville on Oneill Highway and $1,399,999 in Brasada Ranch on Wooden Trestle Lane.

Deschutes County farm listings over $1 million are stable at 16 with no pending or closed transactions. Crook County farm listings over $1 million are stable at ten with no pending or closed transactions.

The weekend forecast is for stormy weather, with snow possible in Sunriver and in the higher elevations. Beginning Monday, sunny skies and slightly cooler temperatures will prevail, stretching out our fantastic fall weather. It is impossible to know how much the weather slows activity in the housing market, with the holidays likely the bigger factor in the decrease in transaction volume until real winter weather hits. On the 29th, the Federal Reserve will announce its next move on interest rates, likely a 25-basis-point reduction. Mortgage rates today are adjusting in anticipation of the next Fed move, setting up excellent conditions for buyers as 2025 winds down. However, the bigger impact in the housing market will be in the spring when the full implications of where rates settle have time to sink in. 

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With the next Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting only six days away, the industry insiders expect another rate cut. Mortgage rates move in anticipation of Fed cuts, not in reaction to them, and judging by today's national average 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage rate of 6.17%, another 25 basis point cut is most likely on the way. The FOMC's last meeting of the year is on December 9, and it is likely to result in another 25% decrease in the overnight rate. While activity this fall has been steady, I don't anticipate these end-of-year decreases to make a significant impact on the 2025 housing market. However, the reduced rates now are beginning to paint a picture of what is in store for 2026.

This morning in Deschutes County, the inventory of single-family homes decreased by 27 to 1,255. This level is 110 more than last year this week as supply begins the natural decrease into the winter months. Pending sale activity remains stable with 64 homes finding buyers, at an average list price of $923,729. Four of the pending sales exceeded $2 million, with another nine exceeding $1 million. Sixty-two transactions closed this week at an average list price of $934,656, with thirty-eight of those sales reducing the list price before securing a buyer. Thirty-one of the closed transactions negotiated a price below the asking price, with eight properties selling above the asking price.

Inventory in Crook County decreased by five this week, now at 217 single-family listings, and an increase of thirty-three from last year this week. Eight pending sales averaged $500,794, with two of those sales reducing the asking price before securing a buyer. The first of the pending sales that reduced the asking price went from $395k to $339k, while the second dropped from $800k to $549k! Five transactions closed this week, averaging $607,999. One of those closed sales was at Brasada Ranch for $1,399,999, with the original list price of $1,625,000. All four of the remaining sales negotiated a price below the list price.

Jefferson County is the outlier this week, gaining two listings to bring the total single-family listings to 130, thirteen more than this week last year. There were three pending sales this week, with one listing decreasing the list price by 3.45% before securing a buyer. Five transactions closed, averaging $385,151, with one reducing the asking price by 2.45% before securing the buyer. One of the sales negotiated a very slight discount below the asking price, while two transactions sold above the list price.

Evaluating data across the three counties of Central Oregon requires knowledge of our area and hand calculations beyond what is available in our MLS. In many cases, homes are selling for considerably less than the list price or the reduced asking price. Every property is unique, and I am always happy to help you determine what a property might sell for, whether you are buying or selling.

Mortgage interest rates rose steeply starting in 2022 and surpassed 4% on February 14 of that year. Rates peaked on October 16, 2023, at 7.94%, before the slow, steady decline to this morning's rate of 6.17%. With rates on track to be in the 5% range for 2026, this chapter of the housing market is closing, and the next begins in early spring. As buyers re-engage the market in earnest, I expect less inventory accumulation, firmer prices, and less negotiating as next year unfolds. All of these scenarios will tighten as we get closer to 5%, and even more so if rates drop below that threshold. 

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